Don't pass - 12 wins

Hello, I was wondering if anyone knows what the player edge would be over the casino if instead of a 12 resulting in a push for a don't pass bettor,, it resulted in a win.

Thanks

Quote: NYCraps

Hello, I was wondering if anyone knows what the player edge would be over the casino if instead of a 12 resulting in a push for a don't pass bettor,, it resulted in a win.

Thanks

Hi NYCraps, and welcome to the forums.

Well, 12 comes up 1/36 rolls, theoretically (sometimes you get things like 20+ yo's in a row...). Anyways, instead of a push this 1/36 would now add 1 unit to your bankroll. I would assume that would help you another 2.8% given 1/36 = .0277. So if the HE is 1.36%, but you're getting an extra 2.8% because of the 12 pay, then overall I'd assume the player edge to be 1.44%. Top of my head napkin math response =).

Edit: This assumes 2 still pays as well... so from the don't pass 2, 3, and 12 all PAY the don't pass line.

If 12 were a win for the Dark Side, as is the case in street Craps, then the Dark Side would enjoy a slight edge.

Let's begin our analysis from the Bright Side.

The Bright Side winning probability is always 0.492929.... which yields a disadvantage of 1.414141... percent.

The Street Craps Dark Side winning probability is therefore ( 1 - 0.492929... ) = 0.507070... which yields an advantage of 1.414141... percent.

Because for Dark Side players in Bank Craps the 12 is only a tie, they face a winning probability of 0.493131... which yieds a disadvantage of 1.363636... percent.

Even over a lifetime of play of Bank Craps, for practical purposes the disadvantage distinction between the Dark Side and the Bright Side is imperceptible.

Particularly along the USA East Coast, many players bring their Dark Side preference from Street Craps into their local casinos. Alas, their Street edge has evaporated.

The "math version":
2, 3, 12 on the comeout win; this is +1/9
7,11 on the comeout lose; this is -2/9
4,10 on the comeout is a 2/3 chance of winning and a 1/3 chance of losing, as you are twice as likely to throw a 7 as you are the point; this is 2 x 3/36 x (2/3 - 1/3) = +1/18
5,9 on the comeout is a 3/5 chance of winning and 2/5 chance of losing; this is 2 x 4/36 x (3/5 - 2/5) = 2/45
6,8 on the comeout is a 6/11 chance of winning and 5/11 chance of losing; this is 2 x 5/36 x (6/11 - 5/11) = 5/198
The total = 1/9 - 2/9 + 1/18 + 2/45 + 5/198 = 7/495 = about 1.414%.
Not coincidentally, this is the house edge on a pass bet, since the pass bet wins when the modified don't pass bet loses, and loses when the modified don't pass bet wins. In effect, when you make a pass line bet, the house is making a "12 wins" don't pass bet with the same amount.

If you win on a 12 instead of a push you would, essentially, be the house, and you'd have thier edge. 1.41%.