Past numbers have *NOTHING* to do with future events?
There is no such word. People think that irregardless is the negative of regardless. Therefore, if something is "irregardless", that "regardless" must mean the opposite.
In fact, there is no such word. Regardless means what most people think the word irregardless means.
That's the only way I can even start to make sense of Ken's prior post regarding my interpretation of the word REGARDLESS.
Reason #1 - The Croupier (I think that's what he/she is called) has to pick up the ball from a different spot depending on where it lands. This affects the placement of the wheel on the next spin.
Reason #2 - While the ball is bouncing around, it is making tiny indentations in each spot it hits. This is affecting future bouncing!
Now if we could only find a way to use this useful information...
Quote: scotty81One grammatical mistake that people often make is the use of the word: IRREGARDLESS.
There is no such word. People think that irregardless is the negative of regardless. Therefore, if something is "irregardless", that "regardless" must mean the opposite.
In fact, there is no such word. Regardless means what most people think the word irregardless means.
That's the only way I can even start to make sense of Ken's prior post regarding my interpretation of the word REGARDLESS.
English is not his first language. It may not even be his tenth language.
#2: No. The effect, which would be tiny in any case, is randomly distributed.
Where your understanding fails is in not perceiving what "randomness" truly means. Even if Event B depends on Event A, Event B is still randomly determined if Event A is random.
Quote: mkl654321Even if Event B depends on Event A, Event B is still randomly determined if Event A is random.
Yet, A and B are no longer independent events in that case.
FWIW, I think, the poster you are replying to was joking :)
He's (mrjx3) after your sanity.
Quote: MathExtremistFor clarity's sake, let's use an example:
1) It's 1:00 pm. You're at the roulette wheel, tracking numbers.
2) 25 spins go by.
3) It's 2:00 pm. You decide to pick the three most frequent numbers from the past hour and bet them. Or just count them.
4) 13 more spins go by
5) It's 2:30 pm.
Question (to mrjjj): when you're counting the three most frequent numbers, for the purposes of your contest, are you counting the numbers that appeared between 2:00 and 2:30, or between 1:00 and 2:30?
Well put. Can't say it'd surprise me if he doesn't directly answer this question.
Quote: KeyserMaybe he'll (Mr.Jjj) go away
This may have just happened..
Quote: weaselmanYet, A and B are no longer independent events in that case.
FWIW, I think, the poster you are replying to was joking :)
I apologize to Finsrule if that was indeed the case. Sometimes, it's hard to tell....
Quote: KeyserMaybe he'll (Mr.Jjj) go away if we just ignore him. He tends to post when he's not, shall we say, "Coherent."
No way are we going to be that lucky. I've blocked him, because every time I read one of his posts, a thousand brain cells died.
Quote: mkl654321I apologize to Finsrule if that was indeed the case. Sometimes, it's hard to tell....
Definitely joking.
No Ken, the ball has no memory etc. etc. I instead change up the question and now all of a sudden, there is a situation (or two) that past numbers are NOW helpful. How many methods have I posted in the past (other boards) that I got slammed for even mentioning, tracking and looking at past events? Lots, is the answer. Past numbers, in a sense are helpful with future outcomes. People can not have it both ways. It is IMPOSSIBLE to have BOTH views. Ken
Look at a roulette wheel. The entire experience is designed to create randomness. In a 00 wheel, you will lose 5.26 percent of your average bet, over time.
If the number has hit twice in the last 25 times, the odds that it will hit in the next 13 spins is 1-(37/38)^13 = .292974.
If the number has hit 24 times in the last 25 spins, the odds that it will hit on the next spin is still 1/38" >>>
So, does anyone have a post for boymimbo (or MathExtremist) or only me? lol Too funny. Ken
Quote:
I instead change up the question and now all of a sudden, there is a situation (or two) that past numbers are NOW helpful.
Really Ken? Is this really the first time in your life that you realize that two different questions may have two different answers, or are you just trying to be funny?
Quote: mrjjj
So, does anyone have a post for boymimbo (or MathExtremist) or only me? lol Too funny. Ken
Nope, only for you, Ken. And it's really not funny anymore, it's sad.
If you don't have a point to make, why don't you just stop? If you do, I think, everyone is adequately warmed up by now to hear it.
Quote: mrjjjIts almost 2am, I cant get to all 40 responses tonight. lol But......If someone says that past numbers have nothing to do with what might hit in the future, thats 100% fine, no problem. Then all of a sudden......"Wait Ken hang on man, there might be an exception to that". WTF? Out of the blue I hear past numbers DO MEAN SOMETHING on future events under a particual condition. Again...WTF? It should be fair if I chose your 3 numbers for the 13 spins and I chose my own 3 numbers. How can I have an advantage? Its funny at this site, everyone wants to fit in with each other. They would rather swallow their pride if it means fitting in better with the 'crew'. I should of asked the nay sayers (a week ago).....hey guys, is there ANY situation you can think of, where I have an advantage picking 3 numbers? MOST of the answers would of been the same.
No Ken, the ball has no memory etc. etc. I instead change up the question and now all of a sudden, there is a situation (or two) that past numbers are NOW helpful. How many methods have I posted in the past (other boards) that I got slammed for even mentioning, tracking and looking at past events? Lots, is the answer. Past numbers, in a sense are helpful with future outcomes. People can not have it both ways. It is IMPOSSIBLE to have BOTH views. Ken
I get what he's saying. Ken's thought is putting a bet on a number that's appeared more frequently on previous spins is the same *** or better *** than future spins. Although the roulette wheel is designed to be random, there are plenty of factors available to remove that randomness (dealer laziness, collusion, bias, flawed design, etcetera). That removal in randomness would manifest itself in the appearance of more numbers over others.
Those of us who believe that the casinos have done enough to make the spins completely random also have to believe that the odds of picking future numbers based on past results is the same as picking future numbers based on the non-occurrence of past results.
Those of us who believe that the casinos have not done enough to make the spins completely random would believe that the odds of picking future numbers based on past results is better than picking future numbers based on the non-occurrence of past results.
If I were truly out to get an edge however, I would go well beyond the past 25 numbers. I would look at targeting quadrants of the wheel to look for patterns. I would look for dealer laziness. I would be looking at data of hundreds if not thousands of spins and record the dealer data as well. I would take the numbers home and analyze the crap out of them, looking for an edge. Then I would come back to the casino and bet accordingly.
I personally do not believe that any wheel or dealer is biased enough to make predictions of future results based on such a small sample size of 25 numbers. However, I would agree that Ken's theory of betting based on the past is as good -- or better -- than any other betting strategy, because if the game is flawed in any respect, the most likely way it would manifest itself is through results starting to statistically skew to a certain pattern.
Not many of us (including myself) would agree that it's any better. To bet future results based on the past 25 would not produce any results (in my opinion) that is beyond luck. To bet future results based on the past 5,000 spins might.
Quote: mrjjj
If the number has hit twice in the last 25 times, the odds that it will hit in the next 13 spins is 1-(37/38)^13 = .292974.
If the number has hit 24 times in the last 25 spins, the odds that it will hit on the next spin is still 1/38" >>>
So, does anyone have a post for boymimbo (or MathExtremist) or only me? lol Too funny. Ken
Ken,
Does it help you understand the problem with your logic if I put it this way:
If the number has hit twice in the last 25 times, the odds that it will hit in the next 13 spins is 1-(37/38)^13 = .292974.
If the number has hit 24 times in the last 25 spins, the odds that it will hit on the next spin is still 1/38. AND THE ODDS THAT IT WILL HIT IN THE NEXT 13 SPINS IS 1-(37/38)^13=.292974.
The past spins have absolutely nothing to do with the odds that a number will hit in the future. Not at all. Not even a little bit.
Quote: mrjjjIts almost 2am, I cant get to all 40 responses tonight. lol But......If someone says that past numbers have nothing to do with what might hit in the future, thats 100% fine, no problem. Then all of a sudden......"Wait Ken hang on man, there might be an exception to that". WTF? Out of the blue I hear past numbers DO MEAN SOMETHING on future events under a particual condition. Again...WTF? It should be fair if I chose your 3 numbers for the 13 spins and I chose my own 3 numbers. How can I have an advantage? Its funny at this site, everyone wants to fit in with each other. They would rather swallow their pride if it means fitting in better with the 'crew'. I should of asked the nay sayers (a week ago).....hey guys, is there ANY situation you can think of, where I have an advantage picking 3 numbers? MOST of the answers would of been the same.
No Ken, the ball has no memory etc. etc. I instead change up the question and now all of a sudden, there is a situation (or two) that past numbers are NOW helpful. How many methods have I posted in the past (other boards) that I got slammed for even mentioning, tracking and looking at past events? Lots, is the answer. Past numbers, in a sense are helpful with future outcomes. People can not have it both ways. It is IMPOSSIBLE to have BOTH views. Ken
Ken- I will say this for 'the crew' as you call us. All our mathematical chatter starts with the premise of the wheel being fair. If you would have started your 'system' discussion by saying- I do not believe all wheels are fair. I can take advantage of the unfairness. I have noticed that if a number hits 3 times in 25 it is likely because of a non random event (bigger hole, stickier, etc). Thus I will now be betting on that number because I believe due to the imperfect wheel I believe that number will hit more than 1 in 35 times. That is how I make money on roulette. I still would tend not to believe that to be true, because I would think that casinos work hard to insure a fair wheel, but I would not dismiss your idea based on math, as I said all of our calculations start with a premise of a fair wheel.
Quote: mrjjjThank you boymimbo for your post >> "it's true. In roulette, past performance has nothing to do with future results. What science or mathematics proves that it does?
Look at a roulette wheel. The entire experience is designed to create randomness. In a 00 wheel, you will lose 5.26 percent of your average bet, over time.
If the number has hit twice in the last 25 times, the odds that it will hit in the next 13 spins is 1-(37/38)^13 = .292974.
If the number has hit 24 times in the last 25 spins, the odds that it will hit on the next spin is still 1/38" >>>
So, does anyone have a post for boymimbo (or MathExtremist) or only me? lol Too funny. Ken
I'm glad you get your amusements here. I can no longer tell whose speaking, what your point is, or where you are going. Your ability to communicate clearly is lacking, as is your ability to read communications that have repeatedly and clearly pointed out your logical fallacies. You cherry pick statements with no attribution, change tack and fail to pose a clean coherent argument, and then make ad homininem attacks instead of answering your critics. Whenever someone gives you an answer you don't like, you ignore it, or type "lol" as if it means anything useful.
In short, you are pointless waste of time to discuss this with, and your making a great troll, whether you know it or not. I'd prefer to debate politics with the right of the Republican party than try and discuss a subject in which you show a laughable lack of even the most basic knowledge of. At least in politics there is are shades of grey in the answer.
You're wasting your time, time you could be testing new roulette methods or even actually widening your wallet at the casino.
(edited for bad grammar and spelling mistooks (sic))
Quote: thecesspitI'm glad you get your amusements here. I can longer tell whose speaking, what your point is, or where you are goin. Your ability to communicate clearly is lacking, as is your ability to read communication that have repeatedly and clearly point out logical fallacies. You cherry pick statements with no attribution, change tack and fail to pose a clean coherent argument, and then make ad homininem attacks instead of answering your critics. Whenever someone gives you an answer you don't like, you ignore it, or type "lol" as if it means anything useful.
In short, you are pointless waste of time to discuss this with, and your making a great troll, whether you know it or not. I'd prefer to debate politics with the right of the Republican party than try and discuss a subject in which you show a laughable lack of even the most basic knowledge off. At least in politics there is are shades of grey in the answer.
Your wasting your time, time you could be testing new roulette methods or even actually widening your wallet at the casino.
Well done! I couldn't have said it better myself.
Quote: rdw4potusKen,
Does it help you understand the problem with your logic if I put it this way:
If the number has hit twice in the last 25 times, the odds that it will hit in the next 13 spins is 1-(37/38)^13 = .292974.
If the number has hit 24 times in the last 25 spins, the odds that it will hit on the next spin is still 1/38. AND THE ODDS THAT IT WILL HIT IN THE NEXT 13 SPINS IS 1-(37/38)^13=.292974.
The past spins have absolutely nothing to do with the odds that a number will hit in the future. Not at all. Not even a little bit.
Nicely worded "rdw4potus".
I add nothing of value to this thread.
the odds that one number will hit 1 time or more in the next 13 spins is 1-(37/38)^13 = .292974
or "at least" 1 hit in 13 spins.
This is also a binomial distribution question.
| next 13 spns | p=1/38 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 in | exact | Hits | at least (or more) | 1 in |
| 1.4 | 0.7070264430 | 0 | 100.0000000000% | 1.0 |
| 4.0 | 0.2484146962 | 1 | 29.2973556986% | 3.4 |
| 24.8 | 0.0402834642 | 2 | 4.4558860792% | 22.4 |
| 250.5 | 0.0039920550 | 3 | 0.4275396544% | 233.9 |
| 3,707.4 | 0.0002697334 | 4 | 0.0283341529% | 3,529.3 |
| 76,206.9 | 0.0000131222 | 5 | 0.0013608082% | 73,485.7 |
| 2,114,742.1 | 0.0000004729 | 6 | 0.0000485914% | 2,057,976.5 |
| 78,245,456.4 | 0.0000000128 | 7 | 0.0000013043% | 76,667,792.8 |
| 3,860,109,182.4 | 0.00000000025906002984 | 8 | 0.0000000263% | 3,802,399,192.3 |
| 257,083,271,549.6 | 0.00000000000388979024 | 9 | 0.0000000004% | 254,332,888,740.4 |
| 23,780,202,618,336.6 | 0.00000000000004205179 | 10 | 0.0000000000000420775 | 23,765,697,242,060.7 |
| . | . | 11 | . | . |
| . | . | 12 | . | . |
| . | . | 13 | . | . |
Hits 11,12 and 13 were left blank, I too lazy to change to exact rounding with such small numbers in excel
Quote: mrjjj
No Ken, the ball has no memory etc. etc. I instead change up the question and now all of a sudden, there is a situation (or two) that past numbers are NOW helpful. How many methods have I posted in the past (other boards) that I got slammed for even mentioning, tracking and looking at past events? Lots, is the answer. Past numbers, in a sense are helpful with future outcomes. People can not have it both ways. It is IMPOSSIBLE to have BOTH views. Ken
The problem here is mixing up a series of events with a single event. I suggest you read my blog about the Gambler's Fallacy:
https://wizardofvegas.com/member/goatcabin/blog/#post16
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
A) Past numbers mean NOTHING, they are of NO USE. Even those first 25 spins like I mentioned for the challenge. The past means NOTHING !!
B) It is an unfair challenge Ken. After those first 25 spins, I pick MY 3 numbers for 13 spins (2 hits on them) and I pick YOUR 3 numbers (0 hits on them) for 13 spins (flat betting). A trial of 30 times, 38 numbers per.
(Sidenote: I am not talking about any form of a bias wheel, cough)
You can pick either 'A' or 'B'..... Not both and not 'C'. Sorry if this bothers some people, I won't lose sleep over it. My point of all this? I have posted that answer but I'll do it again. Many, many posters have bickered and complained regarding using past numbers. Thats cool with me, I have ZERO issue with that unless.....you ALSO choose 'B'. At least I stay consistent, I dont change my answer after viewing OTHER answers first, just so I fit in with the crew.
At least I have the balls to post something, knowing AHEAD OF TIME, will get sour posts in return. Lets be honest, are there some posters that feel there are different versions of 'past numbers'? If so, do tell. Would someone say, those first 25 spins are NOT part of the 'past' but maybe 150 spins ago, that is the 'past'? Just curious. Ken
But it is late, Im a bit tired and this thread is a long one.
From the table on the bottom of page 12.
If you already have a few numbers that have hit 2 times and only need 1 hit in 13 spins. You have a 29% chance of doing just that or better for one number.
The best any other number can do to hit 3 times total in 38 spins:
needs to hit 2 times+ 4.45%
needs to hit 3 times+ 0.042%
I think others have already said this using different words. You are starting a race closer to the finish line than others.
This is an example of how the past spins can be used to bet on the very next spin.
Example:If one bets on the last 25 numbers, on average you can have 19 unique #s with 6 repeats or 18 unique numbers with 7 repeats. I think you already know that.
The very next spin, 48.6603% of the time, will be one of those unique numbers.
I gots a feeling you already know that also.
sweet dreams in roulette land
Quote: mrjjjI'm making one (copy/paste) statement so I dont have to re-do it on the other 7 boards. lol Yes, I do think that past numbers CAN assist us in future betting. All of us may not have the same definition of 'future'. It could mean 3 spins later or maybe 200 spins later, I dont know. Anyways, a person can not have BOTH of these views. If you think you do, let me know.
A) Past numbers mean NOTHING, they are of NO USE. Even those first 25 spins like I mentioned for the challenge. The past means NOTHING !!
B) It is an unfair challenge Ken. After those first 25 spins, I pick MY 3 numbers for 13 spins (2 hits on them) and I pick YOUR 3 numbers (0 hits on them) for 13 spins (flat betting). A trial of 30 times, 38 numbers per.
(Sidenote: I am not talking about any form of a bias wheel, cough)
You can pick either 'A' or 'B'..... Not both and not 'C'. Sorry if this bothers some people, I won't lose sleep over it. My point of all this? I have posted that answer but I'll do it again. Many, many posters have bickered and complained regarding using past numbers. Thats cool with me, I have ZERO issue with that unless.....you ALSO choose 'B'. At least I stay consistent, I dont change my answer after viewing OTHER answers first, just so I fit in with the crew.
At least I have the balls to post something, knowing AHEAD OF TIME, will get sour posts in return. Lets be honest, are there some posters that feel there are different versions of 'past numbers'? If so, do tell. Would someone say, those first 25 spins are NOT part of the 'past' but maybe 150 spins ago, that is the 'past'? Just curious. Ken
Ken, why are you so abrasive?
I'm letting you know that I believe in "A" and "B". In most cases, past numbers do not have any affect on future results. The only way that future numbers are based on past numbers is if the wheel is flawed somehow, be it dirt/grease/wheel bias/dealer collusion/dealer spin/whatever. I don't think this happens often enough to be significant. I've already said that betting future numbers based on the past can be only as good or better than other betting schemes. Betting on the last 25 numbers does not give you any information that is statistically significant to tell you anything about the wheel's performance, unless something is terribly wrong with the wheel.
Quote: mrjjj
B) It is an unfair challenge Ken. After those first 25 spins, I pick MY 3 numbers for 13 spins and I pick YOUR 3 numbers for 13 spins. A trial of 30 times, 38 numbers per.
Not 38 numbers - you mean 13 numbers. If you're counting the past 25 numbers and adding them to the future 13 to get your chosen 38 spins then obviously the past 25 numbers matter. That's why "B" is a different question than "A", and both are correct (albeit confusingly phrased). There's no point in even making the comparison between them - they're altogether different questions.
People dance around this because they dont want their NAME attached to the answer for future reference. Thats why they ATTEMPT to stay in the middle. Ken
"I've already said that betting future numbers based on the past can be only as good or better than other betting schemes. Betting on the last 25 numbers does not give you any information that is statistically significant" >>> This question has nothing to do with betting or creating a method, so that aspect is out. Where did I say anything about betting on the last 25 numbers? Ken
Quote: mrjjjHi goatcabin. How about I change it up a little? I'll only ask half the question, fair? Can PAST numbers (in any form or manner! 25 spins of history or 300 spins of history, whatever) be used to BENEFIT the player in future betting? That was ONE question, no tricks. Ken
Future betting on what? If the "universe" of the bet includes past results, then obviously those past results are material. If the future betting is just based on future spins, then NO.
For example, if the bet has to do with how many of certain numbers will occur in x spins, and n of the x spins have already occurred and been recorded, then knowing that history of n spins is useful, even critical.
OTOH, if the we're just talking about playing roulette, spin by spin, normal betting, or betting on how many of certain numbers will occur in x spins, NONE OF WHICH has yet occurred, then the history is useless.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Quote: mrjjj"Not 38 numbers - you mean 13 numbers. If you're counting the past 25 numbers and adding them to the future 13 to get your chosen 38 spins then obviously the past 25 numbers matter. That's why "B" is a different question than "A", and both are correct (albeit confusingly phrased). There's no point in even making the comparison between them - they're altogether different questions" >>> Yes, 38 numbers TOTAL, 30 groups of them. no you can not pick both. lol Are previous numbers *IN ANY FORM* (this includes my above question of the 25) counted as using the PAST in order to make future bets??
People dance around this because they dont want their NAME attached to the answer for future reference. Thats why they ATTEMPT to stay in the middle. Ken
There's no middle and there's no dance - you're conflating two totally different issues. Your "bet" isn't on the future but on the past. What casino will let you bet on already-determined outcomes, or even partially-determined outcomes? That'd be like making an OVER bet on a baseball total of 8.5 -110 in the 6th inning when the score is already 9-4.
In roulette, where you don't get to wager on series of numbers you've already seen, past results do not influence future outcomes. In your bet, they do.
Past is the past. ROFL Are there more than one definition of what the PAST means? This is what posters do NOT want their name attached to >>> "A person can track numbers already hit and use them to their advantage for future betting". NO NO NO. lol Who wants their name on that? Not many but ask it in a controlled situation, wweeeellll, maybe, sorta kind of, past numbers can be useful. lol Ken
Quote: MathExtremistYour "bet" isn't on the future but on the past.
As somebody pointed out on another forum, past spins can't influence future spins, but they do influence where almost every roulette player places his next bet.
"There is no denying it. Whether you use VB, situational awareness, mechanical systems, strategic methods, educated guessing, precognition, or even random choices, your next bet will be influenced by the preceding results for the wheel you are presently playing."
Quote: MathExtremistThere's no middle and there's no dance - you're conflating two totally different issues. Your "bet" isn't on the future but on the past. What casino will let you bet on already-determined outcomes, or even partially-determined outcomes? That'd be like making an OVER bet on a baseball total of 8.5 -110 in the 6th inning when the score is already 9-4.
Or allowing you to make a Fire Bet after the shooter has already made a couple of distinct points.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
When you argue with a fool, after a while, onlookers can no longer determine which person is the fool.
262 + posts in just 14 days says something about the guy.
Quote: mrjjj@MathExtremist >> You are dead wrong. Let me say this. We have all read...the ball has no memory. It does not know what numbers have hit, why it hit them or how many more times in the next 300 spins, the 35 will hit. The ball does not know this. Lets say for example, after 25 spins we have the 2, 5, 9, 12, 16, 17, 22, 27, 29 and 30 all with two hits on them. With me so far? lol Are you saying (for the record) the ball KNOWS that a few of those numbers WILL get 2 (or more) hits on them in the next 13 spins? THE BALL HAS NO MEMORY, remember! Ken
In this scenario, what is the bet?
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
If the number has hit 24 times in the last 25 spins, the odds that it will hit on the next spin is still 1/38. AND THE ODDS THAT IT WILL HIT IN THE NEXT 13 SPINS IS 1-(37/38)^13=.292974.
The past spins have absolutely nothing to do with the odds that a number will hit in the future. Not at all. Not even a little bit"
Quote: goatcabinIn this scenario, what is the bet?
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
In this thread it keeps changing: sometimes it's looking at the next 13 spins only, others it's looking at the next 13 spins plus the past 25 for a total of 38. However, the idea of betting on an aggregate total midway through a series, against an optimizing opponent, is an interesting problem. See this post.
Just so we are clear:
After 25 spins you choose for yourself 3 numbers of which at least one has already come in 3 times.
You choose for me 3 numbers that have not come in at all.
Then, if neither of our numbers come in during the next 13 spins (13 spins with zero hits on all 6 numbers) then YOU win the challenge.
Question: Have I captured the essense of how the challenge works?
If that is how the challenge works, then yes - you do have an unfair advantage. We both had zero hits (exactly equal results) on the future spins that had yet to be played out, yet YOU win the challenge. How is that fair?
Or, here is another way to look at it:
After 25 spins you choose 3 numbers which have come in two times each.
You choose 3 numbers for me that have not come in at all.
Then, during the next 13 spins, all of my numbers come in twice, and one of your numbers comes in once.
From how I understand the challenge, you would still win! Even though my numbers thoroughly trounced your numbers in the 13 spins that were unknown at the time of selection.
Do I understand the challenge correctly? If the above case is not how it works, then how would it work under these circumstances?
Quote: mrjjj(Sorry guys, I have to repeat it again).....I first track 25 spins (or RNG, whatever) I pick 3 numbers for myself, 2 hits on them. I also pick 3 numbers for YOU with no hits. We watch the next 13 spins (38 total). At the end of the 38, how many of my numbers (if any) will have 3 or more hits on it? How many of your numbers (if any) will have 3 or more hits on it? Either I win or you win (maybe a tie). Do I have an advantage picking mine and your numbers? Ken
OK, I finally understand what you're saying (I think). Of course you have an advantage, because the challenge starts more than halfway through the events on which it's based. This has absolutely nothing to do with the principle of independent, random events not being AFFECTED by past events. The next 13 spins are totally independent of the prior 25, but your numbers only have to hit once each, while my numbers have to hit three times each, quite unlikely.
This is the mirror image of my example of the casino offering you a Fire Bet after the shooter has already rolled two separate points, in the sense that you are offering an unfair bet, while the casino would be offering a "too-fair" bet.
I flip a coin five times, with these results:
HHTHH
I offer you a bet that at the end of five more throws there will be more tails than heads, including the first five I've already thrown. Do you accept that bet?
As far as I am aware, there is no casino betting that fits this example, so this whole thread is pointless.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
