Past numbers have *NOTHING* to do with future events?
This dude can't even answer anybody's questions...nor can he even properly explain what his challenge is about!!
I look forward to many, many more posts from this distinguished forum member!!
Quote: mrjjjEarth to scotty81, come in scotty81. We are NOT betting on anything. Who said anything about betting? Ken
Then, what's your point?
You keep talking about FUTURE events. Picking a set of numbers after 25 spins, and then evaluating the results including those 25 spins is just plain riduculous on the face of it. If you can't see it, then there is no hope for you.
If you are going to ask if past spins affect future spins, you have to limit the analysis of the results to future spins that have not yet occured. Hence, the next 13 spins after the intial 25 spins are the only spins that matter.
That's what betting in a casino is all about: Placing bets on events that have not yet occured.
Scotty81 is well grounded here on earth. The question is: What planet is Mrjjj from, and does that planet allow for betting on past results?
Quote: mrjjj"What casino lets you bet on the past 25 spins after they have occured?" OMG, even the people that dont agree with me understand the question (even if they dont answer it) lol Ken
Just to be clear: NOBODY HERE AGREES WITH YOU. You're that far off base...
Quote: mrjjjIt takes a coward only 20 seconds to reply back in a rude manner.
Sometimes it takes a full minute.
Q: What's the answer?
Your response should be "I don't know. What's the question?"
In this case, the problem statement isn't clearly defined. I am admittedly guilty of assuming a particular problem statement -- that the frequency of roulette numbers over the prior 25 spins would be added to the frequency over the next 13 spins to arrive at the total.
If the problem is "what are the chances that any three numbers will be more frequent than any other three numbers over the next N spins", then the answer is indeed equal. Observing the past 25 numbers will not change that, but that is at the heart of the gambler's fallacy.
If, as I assumed, the problem is "what are the chances that a specific three numbers, having already appeared at least once over the past 25 spins, will be more frequent over the combination of those 25 spins and the next 13 spins than another specific three numbers that have not appeared at least once over the past 25 spins", then the numbers that have already appeared give them a head start. A number that has already appeared three times in 25 numbers has a 100% chance to appear three times in 38 spins if those 38 spins include the 25 we just mentioned plus an additional 13.
Quote: mrjjj"Placing bets on events that have not yet occured" >>> But why would you bet like that? Can I get one or two examples? You're killing me bro. Let me back up the question a bit (forget the challenge for a minute). Do you feel that past spins IN ANY FORM have any affect on future events? Ken
You need to define "future events". If you mean "future individual spins", then the answer is a resounding "no" under the assumption of an unbiased wheel.
Edit: to clarify, your notion of "future events" as you use it in this thread appears to include a significant amount of past data. If you include past events as part of what you mean by "future events", then obviously the past matters. Coin flip example:
1) What are the chances I flip heads? 1/2.
2) What are the chances I get 4 heads in a row, starting from the next flip? 1/16.
3) What are the chances I get 4 heads in a row, if the last 3 flips were heads, starting from the next flip? Still 1/16 because the last 3 flips aren't part of the evaluation.
4) What are the chances I get 4 heads in a row, if the last 3 flips were heads, starting from 3 flips ago? Now it's just 1/2 because the last 3 flips *are* part of the evaluation.
Quote: mrjjj@mathextremist >> Future events in THIS example is the next 13 spins (after the 25). Ken
Good. Over the next 13 spins, any 3 numbers you pick are expected to occur with the same likelihood as any 3 other numbers you pick, regardless of past frequency.
Quote: mrjjj@mathextremist >> Future events in THIS example is the next 13 spins (after the 25). Ken
You are misstating it again.
The relevant "future event" in your example is the event of a given number hitting 3 times within 38 spins. This event is dependent on each of the 38 spins, including the past 25.
The future 13 spins are independent from the past 25.
The (completely different) event of a number hitting 3 times is dependent on the past 25 spins (as well as on the future 13).
LOL!!! At this point in the thread, do you really think people are still "interested" in your original question/challenge?? LOL!!!
Sorry if you perceive me to be rude bro! I wasn't trying to be. I don't think i ever dissed you or your roulette systems in any of your posts, nor this one. You simply are the most entertaining poster at the moment, and you probably have no clue as to why...
Question for you: Why is it SO important for you to seek validation to your opinion / beliefs here on this forum??
Quote: mrjjj"Placing bets on events that have not yet occured" >>> But why would you bet like that? Can I get one or two examples? You're killing me bro.
Let's put your contest in the context of a bet - were it available.
Player 1: Looks at the past 25 spins and picks a number that has occured twice.
Player 2: Picks a random number.
13 spins are then played out AFTER the numbers are chosen.
At the end of the 13 spins, the bets are evaluated on their performance over the last 38 spins (which include the 25 that Player 1 used to select his number).
Player 1 wins if his number has come in three times over the past 38 spins.
Player 2 wins if his number has come in three times over the past 38 spins.
Can't you see where Player 1 has a DISTINCT advantage because his bet selection was based upon prior information that is ALSO included in the ultimate outcome of the bet.?
Quote: mrjjjLet me back up the question a bit (forget the challenge for a minute). Do you feel that past spins IN ANY FORM have any affect on future events? Ken
How many times do I have to answer this? NO, they don't. And, if you ask me again, my answer will be the same: NO.
If this is too ambiguous, or wordy of an answer, I'll try to condense it down to one word:
NO
If past numbers mean NOTHING (whether its for actual betting or a fake challenge) then, me picking mine and your numbers SHOULD NOT MATTER AT ALL IN ANY WAY!! You cant have it both ways. Perhaps in those last 13 spins, the numbers I gave you, you might get two numbers with 3 hits on them. Why not? Anything can happen, that ball has no memory. We have all seen a number get 3 hits on it within 13 spins, correct? Ken
Quote: mrjjjIf past numbers mean NOTHING (whether its for actual betting or a fake challenge) then, me picking mine and your numbers SHOULD NOT MATTER AT ALL IN ANY WAY!! You cant have it both ways. Perhaps in those last 13 spins, the numbers I gave you, you might get two numbers with 3 hits on them. Why not? Anything can happen, that ball has no memory. We have all seen a number get 3 hits on it within 13 spins, correct? Ken
Let's modify your challenge just a bit.
Suppose we substitute 35 spins for 25 spins. And, instead of picking three numbers each, we only pick one number.
I pick a number for myself that has hit two times in past 35 spins.
I pick a number for you that has zero hits in the past 35 spins.
We then have three more spins. If my number comes up three times in the 38 spins, I win. If your number comes up three times in the 38 spins you win.
Are you seriously claiming that this "bet" does NOT incorporate any past information, and is solely based upon future events?
Quote: mrjjjI sure spend alot of time on you scotty81. (from page 5) You said >> "They (the 3 numbers) have a better chance hitting three times in 38 spins because THEY HAVE ALREADY HIT TWICE IN 25 SPINS".....The word 'already' does mean the PAST, correct? Ken
That is correct. And, I should have added: " thus the outcome is being evaluated on events that have already occured, not just on future events. Therefore, this in no way validates the thesis that past events influence future events"
Quote: mrjjjI like how you guys pick and choose what you reply to. (too funny) MathExtemist posted this >> "Over the next 13 spins, any 3 numbers you pick are expected to occur with the SAME LIKELIHOOD as *ANY* 3 other numbers you pick, REGARDLESS of past frequency. <<<< So, does anyone have a comment on this? lol Ken
Simple probability theory, from my position.
Go read a book on simple probability theory, then argue with the big dogs. This is like explaining how to change oil in a car from someone whose only ever seen a picture of one.
Quote: mrjjjI like how you guys pick and choose what you reply to. (too funny) MathExtemist posted this >> "Over the next 13 spins, any 3 numbers you pick are expected to occur with the SAME LIKELIHOOD as *ANY* 3 other numbers you pick, REGARDLESS of past frequency. <<<< So, does anyone have a comment on this? lol Ken
Comment: This is obvious just on the face of it.
What's your comment?
Quote: mrjjjThere is no comment. I'm asking, do you agree with the post from MathExtremist? Ken
yes.
Quote: mrjjjIf past numbers mean NOTHING (whether its for actual betting or a fake challenge) then, me picking mine and your numbers SHOULD NOT MATTER AT ALL IN ANY WAY!! You cant have it both ways.
I just don't understand how mrjjj can't grasp what's being said here.
Numbers that have hit in the PAST have no influence on what numbers will hit in the FUTURE. (i.e., past results do not affect future outcomes)
Numbers that have hit in the past GREATLY AFFECT a scenario that encompasses a combination of past results AND future outcomes.
A different (but similar) way to look at it:
--I have, in my possession, 2 white golf balls
--On the table is a closed box containing 5 white golf balls and 5 pink golf balls
--We each go blindly choose 5 golf balls from the box, at random
--I'll bet you that, after we each choose 5 golf balls from the box, I have more white golf balls than you
Quote: mrjjjYou talk in circles scotty81, is this to confuse me? lol Ok, you agree with MathExtremist. Agreeing with him means that if I picked your 3 numbers after the 25 spins and I picked my 3 numbers, we should both have an EQUAL shot of who will get the most numbers with 3 hits. Do you agree or did you change your mind again? Did you even the post from MathExtremist? Ken
You idiot. The first words in your quote from MathExtremest is: "Over the next 13 spins..."
You take his assertion of what is going to happen over the next 13 spins, and apply it to your twisted logic of evaluating the outcome over the entire 38 spins, and then say I am confused?
When does Survivor come on?
Quote: mrjjj@RPToro >> Do you agree with the last post from MathExtremist? Ken
Instead of asking me if I agree with MathExtremist, why not address my post?
Are you stating that past roulette spins can affect future spins? Or are you stating that past roulette spins can affect a combination of past AND future spins?
Quote: scotty81You idiot. The first words in your quote from MathExtremest is: "Over the next 13 spins..."
You take his assertion of what is going to happen over the next 13 spins, and apply it to your twisted logic of evaluating the outcome over the entire 38 spins, and then say I am confused?
When does Survivor come on?
Let me be clear: I agree with MathExtremist over what will happen in the next 13 spins.
This in NO WAY implies that I believe that the 25 prior spins influence what will happen in these 13 spins.
Is that too confusing?
Is that too confusing? >>> Ok...locked in, do not change your mind please. So based on your statement, (here we go again) is it a FAIR challenge if I choose your 3 numbers after the 25 and I also choose my 3 numbers. Is this fair....YES or NO? If no, why not? Ken
Reason: Because we are only evaluating the results over the next 13 spins, not over the 38 spins that include the original 25. That was the context of MathExtremist's quote.
IF the challenge is to evaluate the results over the ENTIRE 38 spins, then the answer would be: NO. It is NOT fair.
Reason: Because you picked your numbers with information that is already incorporated into the result.
PS: Learn to use the damn quote button.
Quote: mrjjjI like how you guys pick and choose what you reply to. (too funny) MathExtemist posted this >> "Over the next 13 spins, any 3 numbers you pick are expected to occur with the SAME LIKELIHOOD as *ANY* 3 other numbers you pick, REGARDLESS of past frequency. <<<< So, does anyone have a comment on this? lol Ken
Quote: mrjjj"not over the 38 spins that include the original 25. That was the context of MathExtremist's quote" >>> YES WE ARE including the first 25 spins. Re-read his post or I'll post it again for you, holy s**t. Ken
I was asked to comment on this post of yours.
Exactly WHERE does it say ANYTHING about the prior 25 spins in this quote I was asked to comment on?
Where Ken? Please point it out to me.
Quote: mrjjjHERE IT IS AGAIN >> "Over the next 13 spins, any 3 numbers you pick are expected to occur with the SAME LIKELIHOOD as *ANY* 3 other numbers you pick, REGARDLESS of past frequency"........REGARDLESS of past frequency. REGARDLESS of past frequency. REGARDLESS of past frequency. REGARDLESS of past frequency. REGARDLESS of past frequency. REGARDLESS of past frequency.
Ken, maybe I'm missing your point. What is your point?
Are you agreeing with MathExtremist (that any 3 numbers you pick occur with the same frequency REGARDLESS of past frequency), or are you disagreeing with MathExtremist.
I honestly can't tell.
Thanks BTW MathExtremist for posting. Ken
Quote: mrjjjYes, I know EACH spin is independant of each other, blah blah blah, I dont need the speach. My point being, the number of times you have read regarding past numbers meaning NOTHING. This misconception is usually from AP guys but there are sometimes others. In 37/38 spins, on average, there are 3 numbers with 3 hits on it. Sometimes 2 numbers, sometimes 4 numbers, whatever.
Lets say its the numbers 5, 17 and 34. I am looking for a YES or a NO to this question......try not to DRIFT from the question. Didn't those three numbers have to have two hits on them (within 37/38) BEFORE it had 3 hits? The number 5 is not going to magically jump from having ONE hit on it, then out of no where, it has 3 hits on it. My point being, if PAST numbers mean nothing, then HOW is it that we can gage that there will 2-4 numbers with 3 hits on them?
An example of a little contest we can have >> We'll track some numbers. Of course we know CHEATING may be involved with that, as usual. lol When we have 25 numbers recorded, I will pick 3 numbers that I think will have 3 hits on it by 38 (or 37) spins. *BUT* I also get to pick ANY 3 numbers for you, you dont get to choose your numbers. At the end of 38 numbers, we'll see who has the most numbers with 3 hits.
Who knows, I might not have any. Also, we'll do this for 30 groups of 38 numbers. At the end of the 30 groups, according to the slide ruler guys, it should be roughly 15/15. Maybe not exact but it should be close. Why? Because "the ball has no memory. All numbers are independant from one another, PAST NUMBERS MEAN NOTHING". Ken
Yes, I realize I've already commented on this thread. I'm going to try starting fresh...
My answer to your specific question is yes. Those numbers have to have had 2 hits on them to get to 3 hits on them. That is a true statement. HOWEVER, having 3 hits on them is NOT a future event if two of the hits have occurred in the past. The part that is a future event is the 3rd hit only. The third hit itself is no more likely as a result of the first two hits having happened, the odds of that hit only are still 1/38 on each spin. Your question has major flaws in it, which is why you're getting the responses that you are...
Quote: mrjjj@scotty81 >> Do you STILL agree with the post from MathExtremist? I am talking about HIS comment, not mine. Do you agree with the man or not? I can post it again for you if need be? Ken
Post his ENTIRE quote and I will comment on that.
You only posted a portion of his quote, and asked for a comment ON THAT PORTION.
Quote: rdw4potusYes, I realize I've already commented on this thread. I'm going to try starting fresh...
My answer to your specific question is yes. Those numbers have to have had 2 hits on them to get to 3 hits on them. That is a true statement. HOWEVER, having 3 hits on them is NOT a future event if two of the hits have occurred in the past. The part that is a future event is the 3rd hit only. The third hit itself is no more likely as a result of the first two hits having happened, the odds of that hit only are still 1/38 on each spin. Your question has major flaws in it, which is why you're getting the responses that you are...
Well said.
Quote: mrjjjAnd here it is again for scotty81 >> from MathExtremist >> "Over the next 13 spins, any 3 numbers you pick are expected to occur with the SAME LIKELIHOOD as *ANY* 3 other numbers you pick, REGARDLESS of past frequency".
Ken. Based upon this quote, MathExtremist is saying that past spins DO NOT influence future spins.
He is talking about the results over these 13 spins. PERIOD.
I agree with MathExtremist. Whatever 3 numbers you pick will occur with the same likelihood as any other 3 numbers you pick OVER THE NEXT 13 SPINS.
Why you insist on re-posting the same question, asking for the same answer over and over again is beyond me.
1) It's 1:00 pm. You're at the roulette wheel, tracking numbers.
2) 25 spins go by.
3) It's 2:00 pm. You decide to pick the three most frequent numbers from the past hour and bet them. Or just count them.
4) 13 more spins go by
5) It's 2:30 pm.
Question (to mrjjj): when you're counting the three most frequent numbers, for the purposes of your contest, are you counting the numbers that appeared between 2:00 and 2:30, or between 1:00 and 2:30?
Quote: mrjjjWhat does this mean to you scotty81 ....."REGARDLESS of past frequency" <<<< Seems quite clear. I dont know how you can interpret that in any other way? Its not my quote, its his. Ken
Here is a generally accepted definition of the word REGARDLESS:
regardless
adverb
1. in spite of everything, anyway, nevertheless, nonetheless, in any case, no matter what, for all that, rain or shine, despite everything, come what may Despite her recent surgery she has been carrying on regardless.
2. (with of) irrespective of, without reference to, without regard to, despite, discounting, disregarding, notwithstanding, unconcerned about, heedless of, unmindful of It takes in anybody regardless of religion, colour or creed.
What REGARDLESS means to me, in the context of this quote, is that the the three numbers picked are equally likely REDARDLESS [subtitute "without reference to", "without regard to", "despite", "discounting", "unconcerned about", "heedless of", etc.] of past frequency.
How do you interpret the word REGARDLESS?
