Roulette statistics searching for bias
August 22nd, 2016 at 10:47:19 AM
permalink
Hi, I've been a lurker for quite a while and have read a lot regarding roulette and the discussions about roulette bias.
I was lucky to be able to snap a picture of an electronic roulette that was being down on maintenance at a casino.
I am not very strong on my statistics, and I want to know if there is a way to determine if this wheel is biased or not.
I just input the numbers on excel and used the chi square formula but it shows me 0. Does that mean the wheel is indeed biased?
I also graphed them and see that 29, 12 and 7 appear much more often where 14, 13 and 1 appear way less.
I dont know if I am doing it correctly so I wanted to see if anyone wants to have a go at this numbers and maybe explain what I can do with those numbers in excel those results says about the roulette so I can bet with advantage?
Edit: it turns out I cant post links (the actual picture of the machine) so here are the numbers:
Thanks!
0 3724
1 3576
2 3798
3 3821
4 3561
5 3912
6 3925
7 4233
8 3877
9 3839
10 3810
11 4078
12 4299
13 3488
14 3475
15 3774
16 3908
17 3853
18 3838
19 3809
20 4096
21 4029
22 3893
23 3554
24 3551
25 3974
26 3903
27 3691
28 3699
29 4307
30 3905
31 3595
32 3882
33 3910
34 3853
35 3624
36 3576
00 3665
I was lucky to be able to snap a picture of an electronic roulette that was being down on maintenance at a casino.
I am not very strong on my statistics, and I want to know if there is a way to determine if this wheel is biased or not.
I just input the numbers on excel and used the chi square formula but it shows me 0. Does that mean the wheel is indeed biased?
I also graphed them and see that 29, 12 and 7 appear much more often where 14, 13 and 1 appear way less.
I dont know if I am doing it correctly so I wanted to see if anyone wants to have a go at this numbers and maybe explain what I can do with those numbers in excel those results says about the roulette so I can bet with advantage?
Edit: it turns out I cant post links (the actual picture of the machine) so here are the numbers:
Thanks!
0 3724
1 3576
2 3798
3 3821
4 3561
5 3912
6 3925
7 4233
8 3877
9 3839
10 3810
11 4078
12 4299
13 3488
14 3475
15 3774
16 3908
17 3853
18 3838
19 3809
20 4096
21 4029
22 3893
23 3554
24 3551
25 3974
26 3903
27 3691
28 3699
29 4307
30 3905
31 3595
32 3882
33 3910
34 3853
35 3624
36 3576
00 3665
August 22nd, 2016 at 12:51:38 PM
permalink
The thing to do is plot that distribution based on where the numbers are on the wheel. If you do that, you learn that there are two sections of that wheel that are more than 1SD more likely than they should be. 11-7-20 and 29-12. If the wheel is biased, that's how to bet it. Chances are there's gunk in the pockets or something.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
August 22nd, 2016 at 1:16:11 PM
permalink
Hmmm Interesting.
So, we take it that those were some lifetime stats for the wheel.
I plotted them out with reference to physical location on the wheel, just out of curiosity...
There SEEM to my ape brain to be two diametrically opposite hot spots and two more diametrically opposite cold spots.
The hot spots are 14% or so hotter than the cold spots, or to put it another way, the hot spots are about 7% hotter than the average. That would COULD indicate a bias sufficient to defeat the house edge.
Or it could be my monkey brain playing tricks on me. I'd play that wheel a while kelly betting on timid assumption of 1/2 percent edge.
Of course, the maintenance being carried out might have been the long awaited replacement of the wheel.
Sorry, not well enough versed in stats to test the hypothesis.
So, we take it that those were some lifetime stats for the wheel.
I plotted them out with reference to physical location on the wheel, just out of curiosity...
There SEEM to my ape brain to be two diametrically opposite hot spots and two more diametrically opposite cold spots.
The hot spots are 14% or so hotter than the cold spots, or to put it another way, the hot spots are about 7% hotter than the average. That would COULD indicate a bias sufficient to defeat the house edge.
Or it could be my monkey brain playing tricks on me. I'd play that wheel a while kelly betting on timid assumption of 1/2 percent edge.
Of course, the maintenance being carried out might have been the long awaited replacement of the wheel.
Sorry, not well enough versed in stats to test the hypothesis.
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
August 22nd, 2016 at 1:17:01 PM
permalink
Quote: MathExtremistThe thing to do is plot that distribution based on where the numbers are on the wheel. If you do that, you learn that there are two sections of that wheel that are more than 1SD more likely than they should be. 11-7-20 and 29-12. If the wheel is biased, that's how to bet it. Chances are there's gunk in the pockets or something.
OK I see what you say.
I calculated the % of times in which those numbers are appearing.
Any number should have a 1/38 = 2.63% of appearing.
These numbers you say are a little higher:
20 - 2.82%
7 - 2.91%
11 - 2.81%
29 - 2.96%
12 - 2.96%
If i consistently bet on those 5 numbers, and based on the data it would seem I have a 14.46% of winning and a 85.54% of losing.
My expected value would now be: 35*14.46 -4*85.54 = 1.64
If i calculate the expected value of each of the single numbers, it seems I get an ever expected value for the bet:
# EV
7 4,87
11 1,03
12 6,51
20 1,48
29 6,71
Does that make sense?
August 22nd, 2016 at 1:21:12 PM
permalink
OnceDear, that is a very interesting observation!
I hadn't seen it at all.
It's funny and a bit counterintuitive though, becuase I always imagine biased roulettes as being "tilted" to one side but having results for diametrically opposite biases completely confounds me.
I hadn't seen it at all.
It's funny and a bit counterintuitive though, becuase I always imagine biased roulettes as being "tilted" to one side but having results for diametrically opposite biases completely confounds me.
August 22nd, 2016 at 1:25:57 PM
permalink
Quote: roulettefan16OnceDear, that is a very interesting observation!
I hadn't seen it at all.
It's funny and a bit counterintuitive though, becuase I always imagine biased roulettes as being "tilted" to one side but having results for diametrically opposite biases completely confounds me.
I visualised it as warped like a Pringle or an old vinyl record.
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
August 22nd, 2016 at 1:43:04 PM
permalink
Quote: OnceDearI visualised it as warped like a Pringle or an old vinyl record.
Oh... now I see it... a roulette pringle LOL!
August 22nd, 2016 at 1:50:25 PM
permalink
Play 11, 7, 20, 12, 29 for a nice steady 4% edge. Anyone care to do the risk of ruin and kelly stats? It's past my bedtime.
Past performance is no guide to future performance. Bankrolls can go down as well as up.
Past performance is no guide to future performance. Bankrolls can go down as well as up.
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
August 22nd, 2016 at 2:25:49 PM
permalink
or to feed the monkey brain with its daily visual....
Please tell me that you mis-transcribed the value for 31. That would make my day!!
Please tell me that you mis-transcribed the value for 31. That would make my day!!
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
August 22nd, 2016 at 2:43:20 PM
permalink
I'm afraid not!
I can't post the image due to forum limitations, but 31 shows 3595... why???
I can't post the image due to forum limitations, but 31 shows 3595... why???
August 22nd, 2016 at 2:48:29 PM
permalink
Quote: roulettefan16I'm afraid not!
I can't post the image due to forum limitations, but 31 shows 3595... why???
Well, if the wheel is biased, it's possibly worn. If it's worn it would be no surprise to see defects other than just the warping. ...
... or maybe we are seeing patterns where none exist.
Pity. That could be a lucrative wheel to play if the pattern is true. C'mon Maths guys, do objective tests please.
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
August 22nd, 2016 at 3:37:25 PM
permalink
Quote: roulettefan16
Edit: it turns out I cant post links (the actual picture of the machine)
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
August 22nd, 2016 at 3:54:26 PM
permalink
I did a Chi-Square test as well…and yea it’s 0. Hell, the 29 spot is almost 8 standard deviations from the mean by itself. Basically the wheel is bias--assuming the data is true.
August 23rd, 2016 at 7:27:50 AM
permalink
The data is true but maybe the roulette has been fixed already( they were doing maintenance).
Even if its fixed, it would still show the deviations from the previous accumulated data right?
Even if its fixed, it would still show the deviations from the previous accumulated data right?
August 23rd, 2016 at 10:41:06 AM
permalink
Diametrically opposite? Kinda like what happens with tides. High tide near the moon makes sense. On the other side makes you scratch your head.
Perhaps the same type of thing is happening with the roulette wheel.
Of course, since they are doing maintenance, everything might change...
Perhaps the same type of thing is happening with the roulette wheel.
Of course, since they are doing maintenance, everything might change...
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
August 23rd, 2016 at 10:55:31 AM
permalink
I saw them doing things in the machine but not in the wheel itself...
August 23rd, 2016 at 12:11:26 PM
permalink
Quote: OnceDear
Thanks for that thread and data roulettefan. This is some AP holy grail type shit.
So, not only can there be significant bias, there is also an "easy" way to find out. You just need access to those stats.
Also, we would need some inside information on maintenance porcedures. As others have pointed out, no use betting according to the bias after the wheel has been exchanged or re-adjusted in some way. Can any former casino employee here shed some light on this?
August 23rd, 2016 at 1:21:07 PM
permalink
Quote: Canyonero
Thanks for that thread and data roulettefan. This is some AP holy grail type shit.
So, not only can there be significant bias, there is also an "easy" way to find out. You just need access to those stats.
Also, we would need some inside information on maintenance porcedures. As others have pointed out, no use betting according to the bias after the wheel has been exchanged or re-adjusted in some way. Can any former casino employee here shed some light on this?
Thanks I am glad to share it here for discussion.
I have been toying around with excel, graphing and things like that.
Still I'm not sure how to read/interpret the meaning of it.
My theory is, if am I am playing that roulette anyways, going for "smart bets" according to this data can't hurt me. If the roulette has been fixed, I'll be playing with the same House Edge, but if it's true there is a bias, I will have some sort of edge. I just dont know if the edge is worthwhile chasing.
August 23rd, 2016 at 1:28:52 PM
permalink
Quote: roulettefan16I just dont know if the edge is worthwhile chasing.
I would not generally advocate playing double zero roulette. . . But I'd give that one a seriously good chance to prove itself. It seems to offer a 4% player edge, which is massive. Playing it would seem a simple option. Just grab a free drink, load it up and play like a human machine.
It would be boring as hell, But I'd hammer those numbers. Would do some risk of ruin stats first, but for now, I cannot be bothered. Maybe someone will be along to do that.
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
August 23rd, 2016 at 1:40:18 PM
permalink
Quote: OnceDearI would not generally advocate playing double zero roulette. . . But I'd give that one a seriously good chance to prove itself. It seems to offer a 4% player edge, which is massive. Playing it would seem a simple option. Just grab a free drink, load it up and play like a human machine.
It would be boring as hell, But I'd hammer those numbers. Would do some risk of ruin stats first, but for now, I cannot be bothered. Maybe someone will be along to do that.
Double zero roulettes are the only ones available here... (latin america)...
Can I ask how are you estimating that 4% edge? Is it a 4%edge just straight betting on 7, 11,12 , 20, and 29?
August 23rd, 2016 at 2:08:24 PM
permalink
Quote: roulettefan16Double zero roulettes are the only ones available here... (latin america)...
Can I ask how are you estimating that 4% edge? Is it a 4%edge just straight betting on 7, 11,12 , 20, and 29?
Sadly I didn't save my workbook. and too close to bedtime now :)
Will show you tomorrow.
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
August 23rd, 2016 at 3:06:49 PM
permalink
Just because you didn't see it while you were watching doesn't mean it didn't happen.Quote: roulettefan16I saw them doing things in the machine but not in the wheel itself...
Of course, even if they didn't intend to fix it, merely opening it could change / move the bias.
Or not...
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
August 23rd, 2016 at 7:54:02 PM
permalink
oh why all the talking.
just grab $200 and go bomb the hell out of that wheel.
just grab $200 and go bomb the hell out of that wheel.
August 24th, 2016 at 12:42:29 AM
permalink
Quote: andysifoh why all the talking.
just grab $200 and go bomb the hell out of that wheel.
+1
Take $1K JFDI. That photo has given you an analysis in a few minutes that was worth thousands of hours of observation. Holy Grail indeed.
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
August 30th, 2016 at 6:20:30 AM
permalink
It shouldn't take that long to realize a 4% edge, especially with the amount of numbers you have given him to bet. I would definitely take a shot at this. It sounds like you like and do play anyways. If you can afford it and your wrong because they fixed it, you can feel good knowing there was a good chance you almost had an incredible situation. If you're right and they didn't fix it, god bless you and good luck.
What kind is it?
Do you mind sharing what kind of BR you have to toss at this?
What are the limits ?
Is this in a safe place? Should we worry if we don't ever hear back from you?
What kind is it?
Do you mind sharing what kind of BR you have to toss at this?
What are the limits ?
Is this in a safe place? Should we worry if we don't ever hear back from you?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
