4 of a kind same suit odds?

Can somebody tell me the odds for 8 decks of cards, that the first 4 cards drawn are 4 of a kind with the same suit, to make matters worst the 4 of a kind needs to match the box number of the seat which you are sitting 1 through 9 to receive the jackpot of what I presume will soon be close to £100k for a £1 stake.

Of the 416 cards in the deck, the first card must be one of the 32 that match your seat number.
Of the 415 remaining cards, the next card must be one of the 7 remaining that match the suit and rank of the first card.
Of the 414 remaining cards, the next card must be one of the 6 remaining that match the suit and rank of the first card.
Of the 413 remaining cards, the next card must be one of the 5 remaining that match the suit and rank of the first card.
The probability is (32 x 7 x 6 x 5) / (416 x 415 x 414 x 413) = 1 / 4,392,609.

Without the seat number restriction, the first card can be anything, so the probability would be (416 x 7 x 6 x 5) / (416 x 415 x 414 x 413) = 1 / 337,893.

Thanks Don

So first card needs to be 1 through 9... Assuming ace is 1 to make this possible.

1) Drawing 1st card "1" through 9: 288/416 = .6923

2) Drawing 2nd card matching 1st card in rank and suit: 7/415 = .0169

3) Drawing 3rd card matching 1st card in rank and suit: 6/414 = .0145

4) Drawing 4th card matching 1st card in rank and suit: 5/413 = .0121

When you use "and" in the sentence to describe what events need to happen, there's a multiplicative result. When you use "or" it's additive. Just an FYI.

So the odds of 1 AND 2 AND 3 AND 4 above are P(4 of a kind same suit) = P(1) * P(2) * P(3) * P(4) = .6923 * .0169 * .0145 * .0121 = .000002, or about 1 in 500,000.

This would indicate the jackpot needs to be over $500,000 to make this a +EV bet (with little likely hood of hitting it).

ThatDonGuy is almost always right, so not sure if I did something wrong but I double and triple checked and it appears right to me...?

Quote: Romes

So first card needs to be 1 through 9... Assuming ace is 1 to make this possible.

ThatDonGuy is almost always right, so not sure if I did something wrong but I double and triple checked and it appears right to me...?

I see.... the face cards don't have a number associated with them?

Quote: Romes

ThatDonGuy is almost always right, so not sure if I did something wrong but I double and triple checked and it appears right to me...?

You haven't seen some of my recent posts...

However, I read it as, the rank has to match your specific seat number; you are calculating the probability of any rank from Ace (1) through 9 showing up for a particular player. This is why my probability is about 1/9 of what you get.

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: Romes

So first card needs to be 1 through 9... Assuming ace is 1 to make this possible.

ThatDonGuy is almost always right, so not sure if I did something wrong but I double and triple checked and it appears right to me...?

I see.... the face cards don't have a number associated with them?

It looks like since the seat only goes to 9, perhaps the face cards are not in play?
Also, not mentioned about the ace, so it's being assumed the ace is one.
I think more info is needed.

After reading Don's reply, the 10 value cards had me wondering also. I'll ask next time I visit the place.

Basically if the first 4 cards are of the same suit and value and match your box number and you have opted to take the side bet at £1, then you win the jackpot. If all of the above criteria is matched but the card value doesn't match your box number, then you win £1000. There are other minor wins, for example 3 of a kind, pair (£3).

They ran something similar on the BJ tables, called 4 Aces (I think), matching suit, it was so difficult to win, the progressive jackpot quickly reached £90k and didn't look like it was ever going to be won. As the end of the financial year was approaching, they had to get rid of the prize pool for auditing / financial reasons, they ended up changing it to AK or something. Looking at the posts above, that doesn't sound like it made much difference math~wise.

Sounds like a disgusting bet, at £1 per entry and approx 80 hands per Baccarat shoe, you could burn through £80 per hour with next to no chance of winning.

Quote: sammydv

It looks like since the seat only goes to 9, perhaps the face cards are not in play?
Also, not mentioned about the ace, so it's being assumed the ace is one.
I think more info is needed.

I poised this question, 10 value cards as well as 4's don't count (there is no box 4 as Chinese feel 4 is unlucky). If you take the bet and there are 4 of a kind suited, consisting of 10's or 4, you only win £1000 and not the jackpot. This progressive is sync'd across casinos nationwide.

I was having a read of this thread;

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/tables/22673-baccarat-question/2/

and noticed the comment quoting a 57.61% House edge.

This had me wondering about the quoted House Edge on the brochure for this 'Suited Four of a Kind - Matches Players Position". I doesn't seem right to me.

This is the 99 Fortunes brochure

fortune99
tried to insert the image, can't make head nor tail or those formatting code examples

on the back (I've super imposed over the first page) they are quoting a House Edge of between 19.71 and 20.16%, this appears to be blatantly misleading, unless they are factoring in all bets listed on the pay table?