How much would you pay?

Hi there, I was recently having a discussion with people and they were adamant they would always pay for a game with negative EV.

The example was "Would you pay 1p for £200 free play of a 95% RTP slot machine with 35x wagering?" So you would need to wager £7000 and any winnings are yours to keep.

Clearly the £200 has an EV of nothing by the time you've finished wagering, but this doesn't mean sometimes you won't get lucky and win something.

My question is should you ever pay for this game? And if so, how much should you pay? If you'll pay 1p should you pay 2? 3? How about £100?

Thanks!

I need a little clarification on the details.

Are you saying that you get £200 free play if you put £7000 into a slot machine with a 95% return?

If so, then you are expected to lose £350 from your £7000, and get back only £190 from your free play, for a net loss of £160. Well, £160.01, if you include the 1p you paid to play in the first place. I would not pay anything to play this game.

On the other hand, if it was 98% RTP, you lose only £140 from your £7000, and gain £196 from the free play, for a profit of £55.99 after the 1p payment is taken out. The question is, would I pay £55.98, since I "should" still show a profit in the end? Probably not, as I am one of those people who thinks twice before taking less than even money odds.

The break-even RTP (before taking out the cost of playing) is where 7000 x (1 - RTP) = 200 x RTP, or RTP = 7000/7200 = 97.2222%.
If the amount you have to play is a multiple of the free play - say, N (in your case, N = 35), then RTP needs to be N / (N + 1) or better.

Thanks for the response but that's not quite how I mean it. In my example you pay 1p and then you get a balance of £200 for no extra cost, if you blew it all you would still only be down the 1p you spent to get the free £200. But, you can't release any winnings until you've put the £7000 through the machine. After you've done that you can keep the full balance (But you may have bust out to £0 before the wagering is complete)

Ignoring the payment of 1p to play. As you've already worked out, at 95% the EV is negative when playing through the £7000. But because of the deal you won't be held accountable for any losses, but if you make a profit after wagering you can keep that.

So in this scenario how do you put a value on the game?

some of us are willing to play 97% games for fun, mailers, food, and drinks. .Does your scenario have any of that or is this online based? I am not sure if this is a real thing or a theory.

If it is online based with no frills then no one should pay anything for a 95% game with a 7k wagering requirement.

If you can play a 99% VP game then I would pay $50 if I could do it over and over and over and over plus play at a level of at least $5 a hand.

We're talking online based, no comps. Completely agree that I would pay for 99% but at 95-97% you wouldn't pay anything for it right?

In the actual scenario it essentially costs around a £2 fee to get £200 risk free (ignoring the £2 entry cost) play but with 35x wagering and the best machine playable is 97.1%.

Even though it is seen as a (almost) free shot at winning big, it still isn't worth the entry fee is it?

It may be worth it. It depends on the volatility, the higher the better. I would play for the highest bet possible to begin with. If your balance exceeds 300 pounds (preferably higher) then switch to lower bets and lower volatility.

Quote: CrystalMath

It may be worth it. It depends on the volatility, the higher the better. I would play for the highest bet possible to begin with. If your balance exceeds 300 pounds (preferably higher) then switch to lower bets and lower volatility.

I agree. I would pay the very very small fee to play for fun. $2 for a chance to win some cash in small sample sizes isn't horrible. Play TDB and hope for aces\deuces and if you get them switch to JOB and try to grind out the 7k. I wouldn't play JOB from the start because grinding out 7k with $200 is going to be pretty fatal way more often than not.

OP, is this a 1 and done type thing or can you keep entering?

If you can keep entering do you have to make up the previous roll overs on the new buy in? ex, you bust after 1k coin in. You buy in again, do you still only have to reach 7k or do you now have to reach 13k?

It's a one time thing. But ignore the amount of time it will take you and whether you're risk averse.
I imagine it takes a lot more data other than just the RTP of the machine to figure out how worthwhile it is.

Quote: mickeywaffle

It's a one time thing. But ignore the amount of time it will take you and whether you're risk averse.
I imagine it takes a lot more data other than just the RTP of the machine to figure out how worthwhile it is.

1 time thing? Sure why not, sounds like fun for 1p.

Quote: CrystalMath

It may be worth it. It depends on the volatility, the higher the better. I would play for the highest bet possible to begin with. If your balance exceeds 300 pounds (preferably higher) then switch to lower bets and lower volatility.

I was going to mention that, however it seems as if his interest was in grinding slots and having fun and he was not interested in large wager big or go home bets.

Or he simply would've asked what's the best method for this bonus.
-------------------------------

OP What's the most you can bet on slots?

In this scenario £5 is the largest you can stake per spin.

Quote: mickeywaffle

In this scenario £5 is the largest you can stake per spin.

Yuck. How many lines?

Let's say for arguments sake it's a 20 line machine.

If you could use any real number as a denomination and there was zero variance, you would only run through about 3980 before the original 200 dropped below 1 using a machine that pays back 95%.

With a choice of variances game and high denominations you have a very good chance. For example, if you were able to triple your money on the first spin, then switched to zero variance only lost 5% every spin, you would have about 264 by the time you reached 7000 wagered.

I'm assuming for simplicity it's a fruit machine that costs $1 per spin, you start with $200 and continue playing until you're bust of have played 7000 spins.

Second assumption was the fruit machine paid a variety of prizes in a similar way to a lottery ticket, that is a proportion of the payback is assigned to various prizes. The $5 prizes are altered to make up the desired house edge. (Clearly you should get back $200 on a 100% payback, so even though each trial was 1m games, the figure shows that simulations are only an estimate!)

Prize value	Percent payback contribution
5	(Payback - 65%)
10	20%
25	15%
50	10%
100	6%
250	5%
500	4%
1000	3%
2500	2%

Payback	Average Balance
100%	$199.57
98%	$153.00
95%	$102.21
90%	$52.18
83.3333%	$23.02
72%	$5.88