hejlp computing an odds problem

I have AK my opponent has JJ the flop is KJK - it`s a cooler - - the odds of flopping trips are 73 - 1 for one card to hit to hit 3 or a kind- to flop a full house the odds 136-1 - DO YOU ADD THE ODDS TOGETHER OR MULTIPLY THE ODDS - IF YOU ADD THEM IT`S 209- 1 - IF YOU MULTIPLY - IT`S 9928 - 1 for that situation to occur- IF YOU KNOW ANSWER AJBERK ON TWITTER OR POST IT HERE

Hi ajberk, welcoem to the forums.

I'm not 100% sure the question you're asking, but I think it's "what are the odds of this happening to me?"

To be honest, if you play poker with any kind of seriousness this is not horrifically uncommon. It's a cooler, as you indicated, and it would be pretty much impossible not to get it all in on the flop.

Now, saying you hold AK, and your opponent holds JJ, what are the odds the flop will be K-J-K? I suppose we should be more generic and say "What are the odds you flop trips and he hits a jack - for a boat?"

Thus you'll need one of the following flops:
A-A-J
A-J-A
J-A-A
K-K-J
K-J-K
J-K-K

All of these probabilities should be the same, but since ANY one of them could happen it's like a logical OR and is therefor additive. Logical ANDS (where they MUST all happen) is multiplicative.

So let's do one... ASSUMING WE KNOW you have AK and he has JJ. The odds of the flop coming K-J-K (since this was your case)...
P(flop KJK) = (3/48)*(2/47)*(2/46) = .0625*.0426*.0435 = .000116, or about 1 in 8950. Now, given ANY of these flops that could have resulted in the same outcome of you flopping trips and him flopping a boat, you'd add all the odds of these together, which would be 6 in 8950 = .00067, or 1 in 1500.

1 in 1500 is NOT a lot... If you play poker with any seriousness, maybe 30 hours per week, averaging 50 hands per hour, you should have this happen to you once per week. It's a cooler, a bad beat, but it's not that unheard of and is going to happen to you again.

Spelling 'help' correctly would be a good start.
Most here have their 4 letter words down pat ;-)

Quote: Romes

1 in 1500 is NOT a lot... If you play poker with any seriousness, maybe 30 hours per week, averaging 50 hands per hour, you should have this happen to you once per week. It's a cooler, a bad beat, but it's not that unheard of and is going to happen to you again.

If this really happened every 30 hours i'd quit poker.

First you have to have AK (16 in 1326) and then your opponent has to have JJ (I think 6 in 1225 once we remove A and K). Now, once this improbable preflop set up has occurred, the 1 in 1500 flop event may occur.

However if you replace JJ with any pair, and you can certainly replace AK with AQ or bunches of other hands, you have matchups of AQ vs TT on AAT or QQT. So overall it becomes a little bit more common, but still a cooler.

I was in a situation like this once in 5/10 limit. Flop was J, Q, J. One guy had K, J, another had A, J. I had then drawing pretty thin while holding Q, Q. About an hour later I won the bad beat jackpot holding A, 10 on a A, A, A, 7, 5 board and beating J, J. :-D