scottb
scottb
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April 28th, 2016 at 3:30:51 PM permalink
I was looking at the THE Bad Beat probability table at: WizardofOdds
to try to figure out the Jackpot probability at my local casino:
Aces full of Jacks beaten by better hand; both hole cards play; Full House can't use three of kind on the board.

So it's type 1, does NOT have the type 2 requirement of pocket pair for any winning or losing quads, but DOES have type 3 requirement of no board trips for a FH hand.

So I was going to look at how much the type 3 requirement reduced the probability and see if I could reduce that amount from the Type 1 probability as a ~rough~ approximation of the probability at the local casino.

QUESTION is: WHY is there a difference in Type 2 vs. Type 3 for (almost) all of the Quad and Straight Flush probabilities?
Full houses don't come in to play whatsoever in those Bad Beats - so the Type 2 and Type 3 probabilities should be identical for all of the Quads and higher hands - right?
So then I wonder whether there are some other calculation errors in arriving at the Type 2 vs. Type 3 probabilities.
Wizard, any thoughts?
Wizard
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Wizard
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April 28th, 2016 at 5:09:31 PM permalink
Quote: scottb

QUESTION is: WHY is there a difference in Type 2 vs. Type 3 for (almost) all of the Quad and Straight Flush probabilities?



Those tables were determined by random simulation. So those probabilities should be the same, but will vary a little one way or the other to do random variation.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
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