scottb
scottb
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April 28th, 2016 at 3:30:51 PM permalink
I was looking at the THE Bad Beat probability table at: WizardofOdds
to try to figure out the Jackpot probability at my local casino:
Aces full of Jacks beaten by better hand; both hole cards play; Full House can't use three of kind on the board.

So it's type 1, does NOT have the type 2 requirement of pocket pair for any winning or losing quads, but DOES have type 3 requirement of no board trips for a FH hand.

So I was going to look at how much the type 3 requirement reduced the probability and see if I could reduce that amount from the Type 1 probability as a ~rough~ approximation of the probability at the local casino.

QUESTION is: WHY is there a difference in Type 2 vs. Type 3 for (almost) all of the Quad and Straight Flush probabilities?
Full houses don't come in to play whatsoever in those Bad Beats - so the Type 2 and Type 3 probabilities should be identical for all of the Quads and higher hands - right?
So then I wonder whether there are some other calculation errors in arriving at the Type 2 vs. Type 3 probabilities.
Wizard, any thoughts?
Wizard
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Wizard
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April 28th, 2016 at 5:09:31 PM permalink
Quote: scottb

QUESTION is: WHY is there a difference in Type 2 vs. Type 3 for (almost) all of the Quad and Straight Flush probabilities?



Those tables were determined by random simulation. So those probabilities should be the same, but will vary a little one way or the other to do random variation.
"My life is spent in one long effort to escape from the commonplace of existence. These little problems help me to do so." -- Sherlock Holmes
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