Seizures
Seizures
Joined: Apr 21, 2016
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April 21st, 2016 at 12:35:59 AM permalink
On the Ask the Wizard site you talk about the Cancellation Betting System and have the examples for only Roulette and Craps. What would the Probability of a Session Loss be for a 1000 unit Bankroll against making only Player Bets on Baccarat?
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
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April 21st, 2016 at 9:55:02 AM permalink
Assuming each bet is 1 unit, I get about a 30% success rate.
It increases to about 40% if the bet is 5 units (i.e. the bankroll is 200 bets).

Remember - the more you play, the more money you are exposing to the house edge.
Seizures
Seizures
Joined: Apr 21, 2016
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April 21st, 2016 at 11:10:16 AM permalink
Thanks for the reply but that doesn't sound correct, for the 1000 unit bankroll on Craps the Probability of a Session Loss is only 1.3% and the on Roulette it is 2.7% according to the website. The Cancellation System Baccarat should be somewhere around that or less.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
  • Threads: 95
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April 21st, 2016 at 11:58:27 AM permalink
Quote: Seizures

Thanks for the reply but that doesn't sound correct, for the 1000 unit bankroll on Craps the Probability of a Session Loss is only 1.3% and the on Roulette it is 2.7% according to the website. The Cancellation System Baccarat should be somewhere around that or less.


And I know why - I misread the instructions concerning when to stop.
I was basing it on starting with a string of 1s with length = the total bankroll (so, for a bankroll of 1000, there would be 1000 1s in the list).

If the initial list is always 10 (so you stop when you are 10 ahead), a bankroll of 1000 has a session loss rate of about 1.3%.

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