Calculting Blackjack Strategy Deviations based on Card Composition
September 9th, 2015 at 2:03:09 PM
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Hi. First, I'm a table games dealer with a flare for math. I've read all of George Joseph's articles, notablely the one on double deck how all 16's are not the same. This article was not the first I had found that suggested card composition mattered, but he provided the most detail.
Another article I had read suggested similar information when it came to doubling down on 11's. That author showed that you were more likely to win when doubling down with 6,5 or 7,4 instead of 9,2 or even 8,3. Doubling 11 still remained the best play in all four cases. However, it got me wondering about cases where card composition would change the best play and how do we find them?
There's one play that comes to mind specifically that I would like to figure out and I would appreciate some help. Basic strategy tells us to hit 12 against a 2 or 3, but under what conditions does this change? Does the card composition, the number of cards and/or the value of the cards, change whether or not a player should draw in this instance? For example: if a player is dealt 5,2 and hits drawing another 5 for a total of 12 against a dealer's 2, should the player still draw? Or 7,2, and draw a 3?
As a dealer, players ask me about this occasionally and I feel uncomfortable answering the question because I don't think I am giving them the best answer I could. More importantly, I'd like to figure it out because I want to know the game including its nuances as thoroughly as possible.
Another article I had read suggested similar information when it came to doubling down on 11's. That author showed that you were more likely to win when doubling down with 6,5 or 7,4 instead of 9,2 or even 8,3. Doubling 11 still remained the best play in all four cases. However, it got me wondering about cases where card composition would change the best play and how do we find them?
There's one play that comes to mind specifically that I would like to figure out and I would appreciate some help. Basic strategy tells us to hit 12 against a 2 or 3, but under what conditions does this change? Does the card composition, the number of cards and/or the value of the cards, change whether or not a player should draw in this instance? For example: if a player is dealt 5,2 and hits drawing another 5 for a total of 12 against a dealer's 2, should the player still draw? Or 7,2, and draw a 3?
As a dealer, players ask me about this occasionally and I feel uncomfortable answering the question because I don't think I am giving them the best answer I could. More importantly, I'd like to figure it out because I want to know the game including its nuances as thoroughly as possible.
September 9th, 2015 at 4:44:49 PM
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Hi Math,
The specific conditions you mentioned will change not because of the composition of your hand but depending on what remains in the deck, and the only way to have some idea of that is card counting. For instance, for 12 v. 2 stand at TC (true count) =>3, and 12 v. 3: stand at TC => 2.
In another forum, I asked a similar question having to do with 16 v. dealer 10, and in particular a 3-card 16. The answer was if the count is negative, then hit, but if the count is positive then stand.
Of course, as a dealer you might not know what the count is, so perhaps it's best just to suggest the basic strategy.
There are folks on here who are much, much more knowledgeable than I, so I would defer to them if the contradict anything I said above.
(p.s. I'm still a newbie at this, but trying to learn all I can)
The specific conditions you mentioned will change not because of the composition of your hand but depending on what remains in the deck, and the only way to have some idea of that is card counting. For instance, for 12 v. 2 stand at TC (true count) =>3, and 12 v. 3: stand at TC => 2.
In another forum, I asked a similar question having to do with 16 v. dealer 10, and in particular a 3-card 16. The answer was if the count is negative, then hit, but if the count is positive then stand.
Of course, as a dealer you might not know what the count is, so perhaps it's best just to suggest the basic strategy.
There are folks on here who are much, much more knowledgeable than I, so I would defer to them if the contradict anything I said above.
(p.s. I'm still a newbie at this, but trying to learn all I can)
ars longa vita brevis
