Craps progressive betting on the 2 or 12
Quote: vikingsfanin04Using this progression it would then seem that a player is getting up to 59 rolls to at least break even on a 36 to 1 shot. Is my logic right here or am i missing something someone please help me i would really like to try this sometime
With a 1 in 36 shot of a 2 or 12 hitting (35 to 1 odds)
you still have an 18.97% or close to 1 in 5 of getting none or ZERO wins in 59 tries.
$1770 losing almost 20% of the time. Now that would be gambling.
sounds like a good simulation question for Wincraps to see your average and median win.
Let me know where and when you may try it out because I'd like to be there and root for ya!.
I had a friend back in the 80's that bet the 12 straight up all the time, not increasing his bet every roll like you purpose, but up enough to lock in a profit once the number hit, but one day he lost his bankroll, I forget how much, it was in the thousands it was, when the 12 disappeared for 229 rolls he claimed.
Quote: NareedSounds like the latest re-discovery of the Martingale system.
Martingale system doubles up after a loss.
This idea goes up $1 after a loss for 59 rolls.
sure would be fun to watch someone try it on a real craps table.
Quote: 7winnerMartingale system doubles up after a loss.
Oops! My mistake.
Sorry.
Bet the minimum on the come, as your come bets move to the numbers, whatever you have laid out on the numbers, bet an equal amount on the come. So on an 11. you push.
Eventually, and actually pretty fast, you reach the table max and can't put enough on the come to offset your numbers.
I might try it on my next trip, though.
Quote: ChuckI gotta admit I got fascinated by a modified Martingale proposed by Al-whats-his-name in the Casino City Times.
Bet the minimum on the come, as your come bets move to the numbers, whatever you have laid out on the numbers, bet an equal amount on the come. So on an 11. you push.
Eventually, and actually pretty fast, you reach the table max and can't put enough on the come to offset your numbers.
I might try it on my next trip, though.
You mean on a 7 you push? 11 would actually be sweet. 2/3/12 would be a dagger, though.
Here's the link:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/316-craps-hardways-system/
Quote: vikingsfanin04I was looking at ways to bet craps one night when i thought about a progressive system of bets on the 2 or 12 of a standard dice game that will pay 30 to 1 when it hits. I found that if a player where to play progressive bets either of these numbers starting at $1 and raising there bet by $1 for each losing roll up to a $59 dollar bet that as long as the number you were betting on in that time span (either 2 or 12) hit once a player would at least break even (59! = 1770 59*30= 1770 and could even walk away with a win of several hundred dollars depending on where in the progression the number was hit. Using this progression it would then seem that a player is getting up to 59 rolls to at least break even on a 36 to 1 shot. Is my logic right here or am i missing something someone please help me i would really like to try this sometime
The math is right as far as it goes, but the notation is wrong - "59!" (59 factorial) is 59 * 58 * 57 * ... * 2 = 1.38683E+80. The compact notation for the sum of N from N=1 to N=59 is not reproducible (AFAIK) on this forum. Below is a table showing each of the 59 rolls, the total amount bet, win, and net win, but first a few points. (I welcome corrections if I've made any mistakes.)
As others have mentioned, the probability of at least 59 rolls without a 12 is (35/36)^59 = .1897, so you have a roughly 20% chance to lose $1770.
The most you can win is $435 at the 29th and 30th rolls. I can imagine the sinking feeling you would get after that point as your potential net win and bankroll gets smaller and smaller.
There is often a limit on prop bet payouts, so if you do end up trying this make sure you can get paid the $1770 before you start.
I have a book full of systems (I'm sure I'm not the only one on this forum with such a book.) It was one of the first books on craps I got, and I quickly started seeing the flaws -- I even thought of posting some of the systems so we could analyze / debate the merits. It's a strange book, because the author has moments of mathematical clarity where he says XYZ is a terrible bet, then goes on to show how you can use it as a hedge and WIN! He tends to neglect the effect of the losing outcomes. But I digress - this system is in this book, but it starts with 40 rolls without a 12 before you even start your progression. Even this, at least 99 rolls without a 12, has a probablity of (35/36)^99 = .0615 or just over 6%.
| bet | total bet | win at 30:1 | net win |
| 1 | 1 | 30 | 29 |
| 2 | 3 | 60 | 57 |
| 3 | 6 | 90 | 84 |
| 4 | 10 | 120 | 110 |
| 5 | 15 | 150 | 135 |
| 6 | 21 | 180 | 159 |
| 7 | 28 | 210 | 182 |
| 8 | 36 | 240 | 204 |
| 9 | 45 | 270 | 225 |
| 10 | 55 | 300 | 245 |
| 11 | 66 | 330 | 264 |
| 12 | 78 | 360 | 282 |
| 13 | 91 | 390 | 299 |
| 14 | 105 | 420 | 315 |
| 15 | 120 | 450 | 330 |
| 16 | 136 | 480 | 344 |
| 17 | 153 | 510 | 357 |
| 18 | 171 | 540 | 369 |
| 19 | 190 | 570 | 380 |
| 20 | 210 | 600 | 390 |
| 21 | 231 | 630 | 399 |
| 22 | 253 | 660 | 407 |
| 23 | 276 | 690 | 414 |
| 24 | 300 | 720 | 420 |
| 25 | 325 | 750 | 425 |
| 26 | 351 | 780 | 429 |
| 27 | 378 | 810 | 432 |
| 28 | 406 | 840 | 434 |
| 29 | 435 | 870 | 435 |
| 30 | 465 | 900 | 435 |
| 31 | 496 | 930 | 434 |
| 32 | 528 | 960 | 432 |
| 33 | 561 | 990 | 429 |
| 34 | 595 | 1020 | 425 |
| 35 | 630 | 1050 | 420 |
| 36 | 666 | 1080 | 414 |
| 37 | 703 | 1110 | 407 |
| 38 | 741 | 1140 | 399 |
| 39 | 780 | 1170 | 390 |
| 40 | 820 | 1200 | 380 |
| 41 | 861 | 1230 | 369 |
| 42 | 903 | 1260 | 357 |
| 43 | 946 | 1290 | 344 |
| 44 | 990 | 1320 | 330 |
| 45 | 1035 | 1350 | 315 |
| 46 | 1081 | 1380 | 299 |
| 47 | 1128 | 1410 | 282 |
| 48 | 1176 | 1440 | 264 |
| 49 | 1225 | 1470 | 245 |
| 50 | 1275 | 1500 | 225 |
| 51 | 1326 | 1530 | 204 |
| 52 | 1378 | 1560 | 182 |
| 53 | 1431 | 1590 | 159 |
| 54 | 1485 | 1620 | 135 |
| 55 | 1540 | 1650 | 110 |
| 56 | 1596 | 1680 | 84 |
| 57 | 1653 | 1710 | 57 |
| 58 | 1711 | 1740 | 29 |
| 59 | 1770 | 1770 | 0 |
Quote: 7winnerMartingale system doubles up after a loss.
This idea goes up $1 after a loss for 59 rolls.
sure would be fun to watch someone try it on a real craps table.
Yes, fun for the shift manager who's bonus is based on prop action........
Quote: seattlediceThe most you can win is $435 at the 29th and 30th rolls. I can imagine the sinking feeling you would get after that point as your potential net win and bankroll gets smaller and smaller.
seattledice is exactly correct with exactly one win during the 59 rolls.
One also has a 49.04% chance of winning 2 or more times and a
22.54% chance of winning 3 or more times during those same 59 rolls.
So now one can build excitement into those 59 rolls. After winning once do you keep going for a chance of 2 wins.
I call that gambling!
My Wincraps simulation of only 100 trials I hit 5 12s once for a nice profit. I still need to learn how to setup the stats in Wincraps better, like member goatcabin does, so I can post results.
enjoy!
Quote: matildaWould you use this system on roulette? After all roulette has 36 numbers and 1/36 probability of win,ignoring 0 and/or 00. It is the same bet you are suggesting. However the House Edge in roulette is, counting 0 and 00, 5.26% and the HE on your bet is 13.889%. Switching to roulette will save you some money.
Might have to start with a higher bet to try it with Roulette though. You probably can't just bet $1 on a number alone, but at least in Craps you could probably just put 5 bucks on the line that would last more than one roll most times, and have a low house edge anyway. Still, I don't like this system because you are going to end up with some heavy coin on a high house edge bet eventually, or you are going to win early and not net as much.
Quote: 7winner
My Wincraps simulation of only 100 trials I hit 5 12s once for a nice profit. I still need to learn how to setup the stats in Wincraps better, like member goatcabin does, so I can post results.
enjoy!
A hundred trials tells you nothing, really.
The "secret" to using the built-in stats functions in Wincraps is to set up sessions in your auto-bet file, then run 10,000 or so of them and go to the Statistics/Games Log screen. It will show you all kinds of great info, including graphs of each parameter. See below:
When . . .
The # of rolls in the game are not less than 200
Next roll is a come-out roll
or when . . .
Bankroll is less than $ [fill in]
then . . .
Add $ 1 to Chip-Stack # 7
Reset table (preserve Chip-Stacks)
When . . .
Chip-Stack # 7 is equal to $ 10000
then . . .
Stop Auto-Rolling / Hyper-Drive
This snippet is taken from an auto-bet file that makes passline bets. Once the number of rolls gets to 200, you don't make any more bets; then, when the last bet is resolved, the 1st stopping condition will be met. You use a chip-stack to count the number of sessions completed to create the ending condition for the whole series.
You can use a number of bets instead of a number of rolls; you can use a win goal as a stopping condition (bankroll is greater than [ }), etc., etc.
If you have more questions, ask them. I also have no objection to sharing auto-bet files.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Quote: goatcabinYou can use a number of bets instead of a number of rolls; you can use a win goal as a stopping condition (bankroll is greater than [ }), etc., etc.
If you have more questions, ask them. I also have no objection to sharing auto-bet files.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Thank you for your reply, Alan.
Just the little auto-bet file has helped bigtime!
