Is this +EV? What are the odds?

There is a casino that asks for a $25 deposit and gives you $10.000 to play with. They say if you reach $100.000 (or more) within 2 hours of play all is yours to keep. And if your balance does not reaches $100.000 then you lose your $25.

You are not allowed to play progressive slot games, all other games are fine. The biggest bet you are allowed to play on slots is $37.5 and on table games $300 if you play 3 hands of blackjack (each $100) or a single hand blackjack game for $200. Roulette, Craps, Pay Gow and Red Dog allows for $100 max bet. And video pokers $5 max bet ($1 base x 5 credits).

And there are two Keno games (with # payouts) that allows max bets up to $10 per hand, 20 out of 80 balls are randomly drawn.

The first type you can pick up to 15 numbers and hope to have a lucky draw that strikes all your picks for a 10.000 x bet (whats the odd on this happening?) and theoretically cashout your $100.000 win (I don't know if they are or not good payers - obscure casino).

The second type of keno game you can pick up to 10 numbers and if all are hit you win 20.000 x bet for a $200.000 win, and if you hit only 9 out of 10 you will receive a win of 5,000 x bet (but you would still have to work your way out to the minimum cashout). Or, you can opt to only pick 9 numbers and if you hit them all you will be awarded your 10,000 x bet win for a $100,000+ cashout.

I suspect this should be a +EV proposition where the best approach is to play maximum $10 bets on keno betting only 9 numbers and hope to hit them all. Or maybe go for 10 numbers and hope for a $200,000 win? The speed of play is 11 bets per minute, so I figure one would stand 1320 chances to make this win real. - Can anyone provide me some advices / exact figures for this, please?

Quote: PlayHunter

There is a casino that asks for a $25 deposit and gives you $10.000 to play with. They say if you reach $100.000 (or more) within 2 hours of play all is yours to keep. And if your balance does not reaches $100.000 then you lose your $25.

Are you saying ten-thousand and one-hundred thousand dollars or ten dollars and one-hundred dollars? I think your periods may be confusing me.

I'm going to assume you meant $10,000 and $100,000, so let's go off of that:

Quote:

You are not allowed to play progressive slot games, all other games are fine. The biggest bet you are allowed to play on slots is $37.5 and on table games $300 if you play 3 hands of blackjack (each $100) or a single hand blackjack game for $200. Roulette, Craps, Pay Gow and Red Dog allows for $100 max bet. And video pokers $5 max bet ($1 base x 5 credits).

Let's start here:

Slot Machines: I can't quantify without knowing the paytables, even then, I'd have to know the probabilities, which there is no way of knowing.

Blackjack: Forget it, $100/hand, you'd have to win 1000 hands more than you lose (ignoring splits and doubles), and if you can play super-fast three hands at a time, you might get 3000-4000 hands in there in two hours. Even if we just call it 50% to win or lose (i.e. no house edge, we'll say it's a coin-flip game, instead) the probability of winning 2500 v. losing 1500 is less than .000001 giving you a .999999 chance of losing $25 = -24.999975 and a .000001 chance of winning $100,000 = +$0.10, for an expected loss of $24.899975...ignoring the fact that the probability of success is less than that.

Roulette: With a single number paying 35-FOR-1 (is this single-zero or double zero?) which is $3500, per win, this might be your best chance on tables. Is there a, "Play for fun," mode? I need to know how many spins you can get in an hour vs. how many HOPS you could bet at Craps in an hour.

Video Poker: Hopeless. Assuming you play even the rest of the way, you'd need 23 Royal Flushes in a two-hour window. Maybe you'd get 2,000 hands. That doesn't even merit consideration.

And there are two Keno games (with # payouts) that allows max bets up to $10 per hand, 20 out of 80 balls are randomly drawn.

Quote:

The first type you can pick up to 15 numbers and hope to have a lucky draw that strikes all your picks for a 10.000 x bet (whats the odd on this happening?) and theoretically cashout your $100.000 win (I don't know if they are or not good payers - obscure casino).

HA! Hitting 10/10 is a 1 in 8.91 million shot, so I don't think 15/15 is happening.

Quote:

The second type of keno game you can pick up to 10 numbers and if all are hit you win 20.000 x bet for a $200.000 win, and if you hit only 9 out of 10 you will receive a win of 5,000 x bet (but you would still have to work your way out to the minimum cashout). Or, you can opt to only pick 9 numbers and if you hit them all you will be awarded your 10,000 x bet win for a $100,000+ cashout.

I suspect this should be a +EV proposition where the best approach is to play maximum $10 bets on keno betting only 9 numbers and hope to hit them all. Or maybe go for 10 numbers and hope for a $200,000 win? The speed of play is 11 bets per minute, so I figure one would stand 1320 chances to make this win real. - Can anyone provide me some advices / exact figures for this, please?

(Emphasis Added)

Given 1,320 bets:

10/10, given 1,320 draws in two hours, has a 0.000148 chance of happening which is $14.80 in EV, hitting 9/10 twice in 1,320 draws is 0.000032 for $3.20 in EV, given all other possibilities are far greater than 99.8% (which exactly .998 would be -$24.95) you are at a disadvantage.

9/9, given 1,320 draws in two hours has a 0.000956 chance of happening which is $95.6 in EV vs (1-0.000956) * 25 = -$24.9761 in EV making the expectation of the play +$70.0239.

That's if you assume the game is fair and that you will get paid, of course. If you can safely assume these two things, it's a great bet.

Is this an online casino?

If so it's probably a scam.

And if you can play multiple keno games at once under the rules, that just should further increase your odds, since the primary restriction appears to be time...

If its $25 just go for it. Worst case scenario you get ripped for $25 You can always dress like a homeless guy stand on the corner and have your cash back in under an hour if times are tough. :) Oh! you will also have a good I got scammed story to tell.

Mission146 thank you very much! Yes, you got that right. -- Start with $10000 and try to make it $100000 to pocket it.

And I see they have another one where they ask for a $40 deposit. Also start with $10000 and try to make $80000+ to pocket.
To up the balance to $80000 would be enough to hit 8 numbers. (Select 8 numbers out of 80, 20 balls drawn. Same 1320 tries.)

It's a Rival powered casino (I know these are generally problematic). The payout limits are $2000 per 17 business days, though.
So yeah, if I win I will receive the full amount probably in 3 years little by little. But this low limit also makes me think they pay.

Venthus, no multiple instances possible. So the 1320 chance can't be increased that way, unfortunately.

Rainman, funny and true. Although I'd prefer to never tell such a bad story. It would make me feel sick.

Quote: PlayHunter

There is a casino that asks for a $25 deposit and gives you $10.000 to play with. They say if you reach $100.000 (or more) within 2 hours of play all is yours to keep. And if your balance does not reaches $100.000 then you lose your $25.

You are not allowed to play progressive slot games, all other games are fine. The biggest bet you are allowed to play on slots is $37.5 and on table games $300 if you play 3 hands of blackjack (each $100) or a single hand blackjack game for $200. Roulette, Craps, Pay Gow and Red Dog allows for $100 max bet. And video pokers $5 max bet ($1 base x 5 credits).

And there are two Keno games (with # payouts) that allows max bets up to $10 per hand, 20 out of 80 balls are randomly drawn.

The first type you can pick up to 15 numbers and hope to have a lucky draw that strikes all your picks for a 10.000 x bet (whats the odd on this happening?) and theoretically cashout your $100.000 win (I don't know if they are or not good payers - obscure casino).

The second type of keno game you can pick up to 10 numbers and if all are hit you win 20.000 x bet for a $200.000 win, and if you hit only 9 out of 10 you will receive a win of 5,000 x bet (but you would still have to work your way out to the minimum cashout). Or, you can opt to only pick 9 numbers and if you hit them all you will be awarded your 10,000 x bet win for a $100,000+ cashout.

I suspect this should be a +EV proposition where the best approach is to play maximum $10 bets on keno betting only 9 numbers and hope to hit them all. Or maybe go for 10 numbers and hope for a $200,000 win? The speed of play is 11 bets per minute, so I figure one would stand 1320 chances to make this win real. - Can anyone provide me some advices / exact figures for this, please?

OBVIOUSLY an online casino play. I didn't respond because I had no clue what numbers you were posting.

Research the casino before you proceed.

Well, the other day to make money off an online casino is to deposit the max, and bet it all on black.

If you win, cash out. If you lose, do a chargeback. And seeing how most online casinos are operating illegally in the US they have no recourse against a chargeback.

I have decided to give this promotion a shot, and luckily come up a winner!!! :-) This is how I did:

Signed up in January, placed my $25 deposit, received $10000 chips to play with and lost. Same day I have placed a second $25 deposit without taking any bonus (this was required in the casino terms in order to be allowed to receive a future deposit bonus).

With this $25 deposit I decided to play a few hands on some various slots without any big expectations (I eventually expected to lose this deposit) but one of the slots "Love & Money" paid me over $500 in a bonus feature round. Then stopped with $510 cash.

I went to the cashier and asked to withdraw $500 as this is the maximum per request (but one can request up to 8x $500 a month).
Although the payout time frame listed in the cashier said 18 business days, I was amazed to receive my cash next day on Neteller.

Then I waited the start of March so I could continue play with my remaining $10 to try and reach the minimum withdrawal ($25)
I could do this in February as well, but since I have won that $500, the lose of remaining $10 would not count for my 15% cashback given by GamblingCity(dot)com for every monthly lose suffered at any casino - I do realize that for my case we are only talking about $1.5 but why to throw it on window, especially when I was waiting to make further deposits for the "get rich" bonuses?

OK, so March started, bet my remaining $10 on a roulette column and lost. On any Wednesday this casino gives anyone the chance to repeat his initial bonus once. So I have made a new $25 deposit got 10000 chips to play with again, didn't won this time either.

And on any Saturday this casino gives anyone a one time chance to deposit $40 and receive 8000 chips to try and build up to 80000 chips and two hours and withdraw $80000 real cash. So I have deposited another $25 taking no bonus and lost it on various slots.

Then on a Saturday made another $40 deposit starting with 8000 chips. Picked 8 numbers on Vegas Jackpot Keno and hoped I will hit them all in a draw to become $80,000 richer. Two hours passed and I wasn't that lucky unfortunately but I still got overall profit.

Profit: total deposits $25+$25+$25+$25+$40 = $140 ; total withdrawals = $500 ; total cash back = $15 => total profit = $375

What you should know if you decide to give these 3 excellent (assuming Rival software is fair) bonuses a go: you must clock the two hours yourself because the casino does not display a timer and does not remove your chips after your two hours expire. After this two hours expired, you should make sure you empty your balance to $0.00 before making a new deposit to avoid any problems.

How close I was to win? When playing 9 numbers I've only hit 7 twice with each bonus. When playing 8 numbers I've only hit 6 once. For every bonus I've had 1320 draws within my two hours time frame play. - I am asking experts, is this in line with the odds?

If you wonder which casino is this one, it is called Davinci's Gold. And if you lose, you can get back 15% from GamblingCity(dot)com

So I didn't understand half of what he said.

I seen DaVinci's Gold. It has had a horrible reputation.

Good luck.

Quote: AxelWolf

So I didn't understand half of what he said.

I seen DaVinci's Gold. It has had a horrible reputation.

Good luck.

Seriously, this is some pretty incoherent rambling... and I still have very little clue about how these "promotions" work. You pay a $25 fee, get 10,000 in "chips" and try to turn it in to 100,000 in "chips"... how did he even cash out $500? You're playing chips on a promotion, how do the chips convert to cash if you fail to reach the 100,000. If you turn the 10,000 chips in to 100,000 chips, you then win $100,000 (which takes 3 years to cash out)? Was he just randomly playing VP and hit something and decided to make it sound like that was +EV, because he had a negative expectation and got lucky enough to hit something? I also don't like how he seems to be using this thread as a platform to spam his (dot)com "cash back" site.

Summary of earlier post:

Session 1: Deposited 25$ to participate in a game where if you can turn 10k fake money (FM) into 100k, while following various rules, you get to keep it. (Lost.)
Session 2: 25$ in, threw it at slots, ended up with 510$, cashed out 500$. Win!
Session 3: Played remaining 10$ balance, lost.
Session 4: 25$ in, lost.
Session 5: Similar to Session 1, except with slightly different numbers. (40$/8k/80k) Lost.

-----

Conceptually, I like the idea of how the offer works and think it would make for a fun intro-to-gambling/evening-out package. Playing on the idea... say the event begins at 4PM. 200$ in, you get a dinner voucher and 10,000$ in play money. You have until midnight to turn it into 100,000$. If you don't make it, well, you only spent 200$ and got to play at being a high roller for an evening. If you win, well, you did well! (Of course, there's a lot of loopholes here and inefficiencies, but it's an amusing half-baked idea.)

The real question about it being +EV is the older bit about the promo being worth it, which I think Mission answered quite solidly a while ago.

Quote: AxelWolf

I seen DaVinci's Gold. It has had a horrible reputation. Good luck.

AxelWolf, I am not saying that DaVinci's Gold is a great casino, it is a Rival powered casino and Rival's have a poor reputation.
But I've told my own experience and as related, was much better than expected, verified my docs and paid me in less than 24h.

Could you please provide some resources where you found this casino to have a "horrible reputation"? Because my researches found only good and excellent reviews (like mine) excepting a case on AskGamblers(dot)com where one person managed to win $100K in 2013 from this very same promotion (deposit $25 play with 10000) but he did not managed to win it in his first two hours of play.

Other than that, if you look at LatestCasinoBonuses(dot)com (which I believe is now associated with this Forum) and click on "All Casinos" button and search for DaVinci's Gold Casino you will see it have 3.5 stars out of 5 and 11 reviews all from satisfied players.

Romes, I have the impression that you follow my posts only to make malicious comments or simply talk nonsense. I don't know if this is what you do with everyone, but I find you a difficult person and so I will ignore every post of yours. Mind your own business.

Venthus, you are about 95% correct. Thank you for your resume. Yes, as per the casino's Terms & Conditions, a player cannot use two consecutive bonuses without making a deposit on which to use no bonus in between. (I used all 3 bonuses, so 5 deposits.)