Odds of Games Taking Place
October 15th, 2014 at 9:30:23 AM
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If a team is up 2 games to 0 in a 7 game series, what is the probability of the series going at least a certain number of games (assuming the teams are evenly matched)?
A) If a team leads series 2-0
At least 5 games = ?%
At least 6 games = ?%
At least 7 games = ?%
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I know a series will go at least x number of games in the following cases, but am stuck on the question above.
When series has not yet begun:
87.5% goes 5
62.5% goes 6
31.25% goes 7
When a team leads 3-0
50% goes 5
25% goes 6
12.5% goes 7
When a team leads 3-1
50% goes 6
25% goes 7
When a team leads 3-2
50% goes 7
A) If a team leads series 2-0
At least 5 games = ?%
At least 6 games = ?%
At least 7 games = ?%
__________________________________________
I know a series will go at least x number of games in the following cases, but am stuck on the question above.
When series has not yet begun:
87.5% goes 5
62.5% goes 6
31.25% goes 7
When a team leads 3-0
50% goes 5
25% goes 6
12.5% goes 7
When a team leads 3-1
50% goes 6
25% goes 7
When a team leads 3-2
50% goes 7
October 15th, 2014 at 9:42:19 AM
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5 game outcomes are:
WWWLW
WWLWW
2 * .5 ^ 3 = .25
6 game outcomes are:
WWWLLW
WWLWLW
WWLLWW
WWLLLL
4 * .5 ^ 4 = .25
7 game outcomes are:
WWWLLLx
WWLWLLx
WWLLWLx
WWLLLWx
4 * .5 ^ 4 = .25
For the at least part, add up the numbers after it. So at least 5 = .75, at least 6 = 0.5
Edited 6/7 game outcomes, I thought the original question was that the team up 2-0 wins the series.
WWWLW
WWLWW
2 * .5 ^ 3 = .25
6 game outcomes are:
WWWLLW
WWLWLW
WWLLWW
WWLLLL
4 * .5 ^ 4 = .25
7 game outcomes are:
WWWLLLx
WWLWLLx
WWLLWLx
WWLLLWx
4 * .5 ^ 4 = .25
For the at least part, add up the numbers after it. So at least 5 = .75, at least 6 = 0.5
Edited 6/7 game outcomes, I thought the original question was that the team up 2-0 wins the series.
