September 16th, 2014 at 8:14:57 PM
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Step 1: Probability

Numbers 1 through 8 are arranged in random order.

House draws 8 numbers.

To win, the order of the drawn 8 numbers have to match the original arrangement.

Step 2: Return

jackpot = 20000

8! = 1/40320

return = (1/40320)*20000=0.496031746

rtp = return/bet size

But the game rules say: The more you bet, the greater the chance to win!

Does this mean that it's really impossible to calculate the chance of winning the jackpot?

Does the house manipulate the probability of winning the jackpot by not randomly drawing the 8 numbers?

Numbers 1 through 8 are arranged in random order.

House draws 8 numbers.

To win, the order of the drawn 8 numbers have to match the original arrangement.

Step 2: Return

jackpot = 20000

8! = 1/40320

return = (1/40320)*20000=0.496031746

rtp = return/bet size

But the game rules say: The more you bet, the greater the chance to win!

Does this mean that it's really impossible to calculate the chance of winning the jackpot?

Does the house manipulate the probability of winning the jackpot by not randomly drawing the 8 numbers?

September 17th, 2014 at 12:37:48 AM
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Quote:bumblingfool

But the game rules say: The more you bet, the greater the chance to win!

Does this mean that it's really impossible to calculate the chance of winning the jackpot?

Does the house manipulate the probability of winning the jackpot by not randomly drawing the 8 numbers?

I don't understand the specifics of your game, but I imagine that if I bet 1 unit, I'd get one chance at the jackpot, whereas if I bet 2 units, I'd get two chances at the jackpot.

I would further imagine that would happen with a second (third, fourth...) number draw for additional units bet... just like buying a second (third, fourth...) lotto ticket.

edit: It could just as easily be that there is a second (third, fourth...) jackpot winning permutation, and additional units "buy a pay".

May the cards fall in your favor.

September 17th, 2014 at 4:25:07 PM
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Perhaps "the more you bet" means "the more permutations of eight numbers you select".

September 21st, 2014 at 6:31:38 PM
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Quote:ThatDonGuyPerhaps "the more you bet" means "the more permutations of eight numbers you select".

You only get one permutation of 8 numbers regardless of how much you bet. So if the draw was really random, bet size would not affect probability of winning the jackpot.