helenkeller
helenkeller
Joined: Sep 3, 2014
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September 3rd, 2014 at 4:15:10 PM permalink
Hi. What would the probability of 12 spins in a row NOT producing a 0 or 00 (hitting green) on double 0 roulette?

Math shown please and thank you.

Would you probably win (if you bet on green for 12 spins in a row on double roulette. I understand the payout is juiced, the question isn't is it a good bet, but rather would I probably win or probably lose after 12 spins all on 0-00 green )
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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September 3rd, 2014 at 4:23:10 PM permalink
Quote: helenkeller

Hi. What would the probability of 12 spins in a row NOT producing a 0 or 00 (hitting green) on double 0 roulette?

Math shown please and thank you.

Would you probably win (if you bet on green for 12 spins in a row on double roulette. I understand the payout is juiced, the question isn't is it a good bet, but rather would I probably win or probably lose after 12 spins all on 0-00 green )



(36/38)^12 = about 52.27%

So, no, you would probably lose.
bahdbwoy
bahdbwoy
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September 3rd, 2014 at 4:27:39 PM permalink
(36/38)^12 = .523
1/.523 = 1 in 1.912
wudged
wudged
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September 3rd, 2014 at 4:27:53 PM permalink
(36/38)^ 12
helenkeller
helenkeller
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September 3rd, 2014 at 4:43:29 PM permalink
Thank you for your prompt response.

I was at a casino where they had the previous numbers showing. All 21 numbers were not green, and 3 more spins went through on top of that. So those 24 spins plus my 12 is 36 spins. I know I wasn't betting on the previous 24, so it may be idealistic to start from the earliest number I saw.

But my friend and I were in disagreement: I said in a set of 36, or 36 spins, the chances of green not coming out was

(36/38)^36, or ~14.3%.

I get I didn't bet on the previous 24 out of 36 spins, but taking the whole 36 as a set provides an 85.7% chance of victory (and again, I get the juiced payouts makes it unfavorable)

So if you were to take into account that the previous 24 spins had not produced a green, what were my chances of HITTING green?

Still only 48%? I believe it totally depends on how you choose to view your "set" and your chosen set should be fixed before you start calculating, not arbitrary based on previous numbers.

But for a 36 spin set I'd have a 85% of green, and a 12 spin set a 48% chance.

Is my understanding ok?

And taking all that into consideration what were my chances of winning?
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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September 3rd, 2014 at 4:48:47 PM permalink
After taking all that into consideration your chances of winning are unchanged. Future results are independent of past results.

I had bacon and eggs for breakfast today, by the way. That has the same effect on your chances of winning as the results of the last 24 spins.
helenkeller
helenkeller
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September 3rd, 2014 at 5:01:49 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

After taking all that into consideration your chances of winning are unchanged. Future results are independent of past results.

I had bacon and eggs for breakfast today, by the way. That has the same effect on your chances of winning as the results of the last 24 spins.




So just for clarification, if I HAD started my bet at the beginning of that set, had I started playing earlier, and had bet on all 36 of those hands: I then would have had a 85% chance of winning, but still would have never hit.

Thank you
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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September 3rd, 2014 at 5:10:14 PM permalink
Quote: helenkeller

So just for clarification, if I HAD started my bet at the beginning of that set, had I started playing earlier, and had bet on all 36 of those hands: I then would have had a 85% chance of winning, but still would have never hit.



Yup.

Note that for every miss, your chances of winning go down. Before you started, your chances would have been 85%. This winning chance drops steadily for every miss, until it hits 0% after your 36th miss.

This makes perfect sense, too. When you have 36 shots at it, your chances of winning are 85%. As you have fewer and fewer shots, your chances go down. When you have no shots left, your chances are down to 0.

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