May 31st, 2010 at 11:28:57 PM
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The Wizard of Odds showed in his betting systems article that on an even money met, when you have a 1% advantage with a 1000 bankroll you would win 1 million dollars 98% of the time before you went bust. If you were betting the don't come bet with 100x odds, so the house edge over you being .014% and a 10,000 dollar bank roll, what percentage of the time would you win 1 million before going bust?
June 1st, 2010 at 2:50:10 AM
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I don't know, but there would be a percentage of the time that you would immediately drop below 10k and never get it back. It's not an even money bet now either. Note that with 100X odds a 10k bankroll is sufficient perhaps but not excessive, assuming you had a table with a $5 minimum. If up to a $10 min, 10k becomes questionable.
"never get it back" is also possible with even bets at a player advantage of course, but the animal you are describing does not sound like it would be a money machine to that level even for the Lucky. You can look at it like this: the free odds bet of, say, $505 a hand at a $5 table is action, on the greater portion, of a bet of $500 that in the long run you would break even on in theory. How is that going to get to $1 million unless you then risk all the winnings? I'm thinking a very lucky person would take a 10K bankroll to 50k or so, and those that merely double it to 20k are of course still lucky players. Someone putting $100 on the passline to start and betting the entire bankroll in the odds each time would at least have a gameplan that could get him there, but we can imagine what would happen to him.
"never get it back" is also possible with even bets at a player advantage of course, but the animal you are describing does not sound like it would be a money machine to that level even for the Lucky. You can look at it like this: the free odds bet of, say, $505 a hand at a $5 table is action, on the greater portion, of a bet of $500 that in the long run you would break even on in theory. How is that going to get to $1 million unless you then risk all the winnings? I'm thinking a very lucky person would take a 10K bankroll to 50k or so, and those that merely double it to 20k are of course still lucky players. Someone putting $100 on the passline to start and betting the entire bankroll in the odds each time would at least have a gameplan that could get him there, but we can imagine what would happen to him.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder