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BigTip
BigTip
Joined: May 25, 2010
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May 25th, 2010 at 11:11:00 AM permalink
We all know that video poker has one of the lowest house advantages available. But I have never gotten a royal. When I play it seems my money just gets sucked away quickly most times. All chasing that royal flush.

So if getting a royal flush was NOT part of the overall odds calculation, what would the house advantage be? Am I losing my money faster than playing keno for example? lol
rudeboyoi
rudeboyoi
Joined: Mar 28, 2010
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May 25th, 2010 at 11:24:19 AM permalink
taking a 9/6 jacks or better machine that pays back 0.99543904
with a royal returning 0.01980661

the return would be somewhere between (.99543904-.01980061) and (.99543904)

your playing strategy would alter a bit so it would be greater than (.99543904-.019860061)

like keeping unsuited QJ,KQ,KJ,AJ,AQ,AK over suited TJ, TQ, TK.

plus you can still get dealt a pat royal and im assuming you are still going to draw to a royal when you get dealt 4 to a royal unless you are specifically dealt 9TJQK of all the same suit.
thecesspit
thecesspit
Joined: Apr 19, 2010
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May 25th, 2010 at 11:32:57 AM permalink
Quote: rudeboyoi

taking a 9/6 jacks or better machine that pays back 0.99543904
with a royal returning 0.01980661

the return would be somewhere between (.99543904-.01980061) and (.99543904)

your playing strategy would alter a bit so it would be greater than (.99543904-.019860061)

like keeping unsuited QJ,KQ,KJ,AJ,AQ,AK over suited TJ, TQ, TK.

plus you can still get dealt a pat royal and im assuming you are still going to draw to a royal when you get dealt 4 to a royal unless you are specifically dealt 9TJQK of all the same suit.



It's not hitting Quads and Full Houses over a long session that can really start to drain on you. Royal's make up about 2% of the EV, Quads 6% and FH's 10%.

You should hit Quads ~1-in-500 hands, FH and Flushes about 1 in 90. I once counted about 60 dealt trips before hitting a Quad on the draw (was last day of the trip, in a bar in the Old Frontier, down to my last few gambling dollars when I hit a natural set of 7's... which happened to be Quad of the Day for a bonus ($50 bonus as I recall) made my day after a rather crappy run of gambling).
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
rudeboyoi
rudeboyoi
Joined: Mar 28, 2010
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May 25th, 2010 at 11:38:48 AM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

It's not hitting Quads and Full Houses over a long session that can really start to drain on you. Royal's make up about 2% of the EV, Quads 6% and FH's 10%.

You should hit Quads ~1-in-500 hands, FH and Flushes about 1 in 90. I once counted about 60 dealt trips before hitting a Quad on the draw (was last day of the trip, in a bar in the Old Frontier, down to my last few gambling dollars when I hit a natural set of 7's... which happened to be Quad of the Day for a bonus ($50 bonus as I recall) made my day after a rather crappy run of gambling).



or not hitting enough quads in FPDW which makes up ~32.5 of your return.
BigTip
BigTip
Joined: May 25, 2010
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May 25th, 2010 at 12:25:44 PM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

Royal's make up about 2% of the EV, Quads 6% and FH's 10%.



So, on a 9/6 JOB, if I played normal strategy, but never hit a royal, my money would slowly go away at only a .97543904 return rate. (.99543904 - "2%") Is that correct? That is just slightly better than a single zero roulette wheel at 2.7% house edge, yes?

Twist my arm. I guess I will continue to play VP.
toastcmu
toastcmu
Joined: Nov 11, 2009
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May 25th, 2010 at 4:41:33 PM permalink
One other thing to consider (depending on your gambling style/bankroll etc) - Playing one coin only reduces the variance and the return, but you do get to add a small percentage back to the fact that the royal for one coin is 250 coins. For 9/6 JoB - this makes the total return 98.22% including that 250 coin royal. Of course this is a worse return than the 99.54%, but if you're "removing" the royal, the 4000 coin royal has a greater effect on the overall return than the 250 coin (per coin that is).

-B
JB
Administrator
JB
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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May 25th, 2010 at 6:03:49 PM permalink
I'm not sure if it is correct to simply subtract the return that a Royal Flush provides, since it is still a possible outcome.

Instead of doing that, consider this: pretend that a Royal Flush pays the same 250 coins that a Straight Flush does. If you use perfect strategy for such a game, when the Royal actually pays 4000 coins, then the return would be 99.2132% for 9/6 Jacks or Better, and the variance would be reduced from 19.51 to 13.82.

The basic strategy (ignoring exceptions) would then look like this:

  1. Royal Flush
  2. Straight Flush
  3. Four of a Kind
  4. Full House
  5. Flush
  6. Three of a Kind
  7. Straight
  8. Two Pair
  9. 4 to a Royal Flush
  10. 4 to a Straight Flush
  11. One Pair (Jacks or Better)
  12. 4 to a Flush
  13. Unsuited TJQK
  14. 3 to a Royal Flush (JQK)
  15. One Pair (2's through 10's)
  16. Unsuited 2345 through 9TJQ
  17. 3 to a Royal Flush (except JQK)
  18. 3 to a Straight Flush (345 through 9TJ; 89J; 8TJ; 8JQ; 9TQ; 9JQ; 9JK; 9QK)
  19. Unsuited JQKA
  20. Suited JQ
  21. 3 to a Flush with 2 high cards
  22. Suited JK; QK
  23. Unsuited 9JQK; TJQA; TJKA; TQKA
  24. 3 to a Straight Flush (Ace-low; 78J; 79J; 7TJ; 89Q; 8TQ; 9TK)
  25. Suited JA; QA; KA
  26. 3 to a Straight Flush (234; 235; 245; 346; 356; 457; 467; 568; 578; 679; 689; 78T; 79T)
  27. Unsuited JQK
  28. Unsuited JQ; JK; QK
  29. Unsuited JA; QA; KA
  30. Jack; Queen; King; Ace
  31. 3 to a Straight Flush (236; 246; 256; 347; 357; 367; 458; 468; 478; 569; 579; 589; 67T; 68T; 69T)
  32. Discard everything

The return from the above strategy would be 99.2071%, and the variance would be 13.77 per coin. (The differences in those figures from the ones quoted above are attributable to the exceptions.)

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