beating the 2% hold in ultimate texas holdem
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I guess my questions are
1) Approximately how long do you have to play quarters to generate $1250 in action. Just looking for a ball park number as I realize the dealer and the number of players at the table greatly effect the pace of play.
2) On bigger mistakes like when you bet 4x and lose and the dealer misreads and pays you and you win $125 instead of losing $150 doesn't this $275 swing destroy the house 2% edge.
Seems to me the game is beatable because of the high volume of dealer mistakes that take place. Anyone else have any thoughts on this.
Grandpa Vegas
Quote: GrandpaVegasI bet quarters and play the perfect strategy as the strategy tables show. I never play trips and bet 4x 2x and 1x where appropriate. What should this equate to in money bet per hour? I am making the assumption that for every $1250 I put in action I can only expect a return of $1225 after the fullness of time and the 2% hold levels out. Many times the dealer forgets they didn't qualify and you get paid on your ante bet. Well if you get paid on the ante when it should have been a push, doesn't that one little mistake make up the 2% for $1250 worth of action.
I guess my questions are
1) Approximately how long do you have to play quarters to generate $1250 in action. Just looking for a ball park number as I realize the dealer and the number of players at the table greatly effect the pace of play.
2) On bigger mistakes like when you bet 4x and lose and the dealer misreads and pays you and you win $125 instead of losing $150 doesn't this $275 swing destroy the house 2% edge.
Seems to me the game is beatable because of the high volume of dealer mistakes that take place. Anyone else have any thoughts on this.
Grandpa Vegas
I have no idea what you mean by "hold". The house edge is a lot lower than 2%, and it's based on the percentage of ante bets, not total action, so it is easier to calculate.
Dealer mistakes are common, you are right. If they pay the ante instead of pushing it 1-2x per hour you are breaking even or beating the game, before comps. If you have a dealer who can't read the board (which was common when the game first became popular -- a lot of non-poker-player dealers were clueless) it can be a goldmine.
Quote: GrandpaVegas2) On bigger mistakes like when you bet 4x and lose and the dealer misreads and pays you and you win $125 instead of losing $150 doesn't this $275 swing destroy the house 2% edge.
You can answer that question with the Wizard's numbers from the website. Dump them into a spreadsheet and for every line item you care about, change the average value to account for dealer mistakes. The new value will reflect the house edge under the assumed conditions (including your optimal play and dealer mistakes). If it's positive, well...
Quote: GrandpaVegasI bet quarters and play the perfect strategy as the strategy tables show. I never play trips and bet 4x 2x and 1x where appropriate. What should this equate to in money bet per hour? I am making the assumption that for every $1250 I put in action I can only expect a return of $1225 after the fullness of time and the 2% hold levels out. Many times the dealer forgets they didn't qualify and you get paid on your ante bet. Well if you get paid on the ante when it should have been a push, doesn't that one little mistake make up the 2% for $1250 worth of action.
I guess my questions are
1) Approximately how long do you have to play quarters to generate $1250 in action. Just looking for a ball park number as I realize the dealer and the number of players at the table greatly effect the pace of play.
2) On bigger mistakes like when you bet 4x and lose and the dealer misreads and pays you and you win $125 instead of losing $150 doesn't this $275 swing destroy the house 2% edge.
Seems to me the game is beatable because of the high volume of dealer mistakes that take place. Anyone else have any thoughts on this.
Grandpa Vegas
FWIW, Harrah's LV is extremely concerned about exactly this and watching their hold carefully. With the addition of the in-house cross-platform 6 card bet, the dealer errors have become endemic, the game has slowed badly, and the only thing saving the game is that most people are scared to bet it properly and cut themselves out of taking full advantage. It's possible they'll work through it, but 3 weeks ago they were having a cow. (Don't think I'm giving anything away; they were openly discusssing the situation in front of the table several times over the week I was playing.)
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceI have no idea what you mean by "hold". The house edge is a lot lower than 2%, and it's based on the percentage of ante bets, not total action, so it is easier to calculate.
The hold is the amount a player leaves behind on average for a game. For a game like blackjack or texas hold 'em where people can not know the strategy the hold can be a lot larger than the edge.
Quote: geoffThe hold is the amount a player leaves behind on average for a game. For a game like blackjack or texas hold 'em where people can not know the strategy the hold can be a lot larger than the edge.
I know what hold means :) But I don't think that's what he meant by the term in this context.
Quote: 98ClubsThe House advantage is 2.2% upon the average wager. The Wizard has calculated that optimal strategy will wager about 4.15 units per hand. This equates to about 0.53% per unit wagered (Element of Risk).
Oh, I guess I was wrong. For some reason I thought that the HE was 1.4%. Not sure where I got that number from.
EoR is not a useful measure here. Just multiply HE by your average ante size, and multiply that by number of hands per hour.
Quote: GrandpaVegasI thought I read somewhere that the casino edge was 2% if you were playing perfect strategy. Is it higher or lower or 2%? Also does anybody know what how many hands you can expect to get in an hour on average. I do realize that there is a huge difference between an empty table and a full one.
The expected loss is 2.2% of the ante under perfect play. It's a smaller percentage of total wager. If you assume 30 hands/hour and $10 ante/raise bet units, you're looking at 2.2% * $10 * 30 = $6.60 expected loss/hour. There are near-optimal strategies on the Internet that play very close to 2.3%. Using any of those should result in an expected loss of less than one ante bet per hour.
That means if you think the dealer is making mistakes in your favor worth more than one ante bet per hour, you're theoretically profitable.
Quote: GrandpaVegasI thought I read somewhere that the casino edge was 2% if you were playing perfect strategy.
People are referring you to Wizard of Odds dot com to get some of these answers. The particular page is
https://wizardofodds.com/games/ultimate-texas-hold-em/
this is the authoritative source. Otherwise you are going to have to trust the posters, some of whom might say 'oops' if you will notice
Quote: GrandpaVegasAlso does anybody know what how many hands you can expect to get in an hour on average. I do realize that there is a huge difference between an empty table and a full one.
Don't think that has been reported there, but see this link below, at the bottom of the page. It's an average for comping but we can glean something I think. For a game like UTH , probably be figured to be 50 hands an hour or so, not 70. You'll have to guess at the effect of busy/not busy, but a game like this has difficulty getting anywhere near 100 hands an hour, surely.
https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/house-edge/
Quote: odiousgambitPeople are referring you to Wizard of Odds dot com to get some of these answers. The particular page is
https://wizardofodds.com/games/ultimate-texas-hold-em/
this is the authoritative source. Otherwise you are going to have to trust the posters, some of whom might say 'oops' if you will notice
Don't think that has been reported there, but see this link below, at the bottom of the page. It's an average for comping but we can glean something I think. For a game like UTH , probably be figured to be 50 hands an hour or so, not 70. You'll have to guess at the effect of busy/not busy, but a game like this has difficulty getting anywhere near 100 hands an hour, surely.
https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/house-edge/
UTH usually plays at around 25-30 hands an hour, brutal game to play if your trying to get rounds in. I count the rounds when I play it. Heads up with a competent dealer who can actually read the board quickly(kinda rare in this game), 65 hands an hour.
Maybe I am being dense again, but that sounds like the normal ruleQuote: RelaxursoulI am a new member and do not know how to make a thread. There is an ultimate texas hold em game in mexico with two different rules. First, on the turn you must decide whether to put 1 play bet or fold if you have checked preflop and the flop.
Quote:The second different rule works great for the players. If the dealer does not qualify they pay your play bets and ante bet regardless if your hand loses to the dealer hands! So as long as the dealer does not have a pair or better you automatically win. If the 5 community cards have a pair the dealer qualifies. I would love to know what is the edge betting optimally with these new rule.
I have to assume the numbers are not easily crunched, but if there is no other rule change it sounds like enough to make it +EV.
Make sure you are not playing UTH Bonus. I don't know how to play that game and you may be describing it.
The HE on UTH is 0.5 of the Ante... most houses rate 2% of the total in action (Ante+Blind+Raise)- thus with $25 on the Blind and Ante, on average the patron will have $100 in action, at 2% disadvantage (according to the house). The true theoretical should be 0.5% of the Ante*Hands per hour.. thus if betting quarters at 30 hands per hour, the expected loss is 30*25*.5= $375 however, given the error in house edge, the casino will rate a theoretical of 100*2*30=6000.
Throw in the return on theoretical in the form of comps, lets take the average of 25% of theo and we have 6k*.25 or $1500. Thus we could expect to lose 375, but are given 1500 in value for a difference of 1125!! Toss in a dealer error every hour or two and we are quite ahead of expectation!!
Quote: LVJackal
The HE on UTH is 0.5 of the Ante.
It's 2.185% of the ante. 0.5% is the element of risk.
Quote: odiousgambitMaybe I am being dense again, but that sounds like the normal rule
I have to assume the numbers are not easily crunched, but if there is no other rule change it sounds like enough to make it +EV.
Make sure you are not playing UTH Bonus. I don't know how to play that game and you may be describing it.
I think he's saying that you must make the 1x/fold decision before seeing the river, which is different. I could be misunderstanding him.
Love the non-qualify pay rule. Maybe you fold enough hands that hit on the river, that it pays for the non-qual pay. Maybe the Blind bet pays are different.
Harrah's has told me (2 different Floors so I think it's how they do it) that I'm being credited for 4x my Ante in this game, which is very close to the Wiz's average exposure under optimal play. So I do like that; much better rating than I get on PGP (my other favorite).
Quote: RelaxursoulTo clarify some points. Yes the 1x/fold decision must be made before seeing the river. It is made when the fourth (aka turn) is turned. Also I made a mistake. They pay your play bets when the dealer does not qualify regardless of the dealers hand. Therefore, you can have a worse hand than the dealer and win the play bets as long as the dealer does not qualify. The push and ante bets are returned in that situation. Anytime the board is not paired and you don't have showdown value you can play one ante bet on the turn and win as long as the board and the dealer's cards do not pair. I was looking at wizards of odds chart and changed the payouts where dealer does not qualify and it changed the ev of the game from -.02185 to .0877. However, that does not model this exact game because folding frequencies are different. I will play today and let you guys know how I did. Might add some ev with dealer mistakes ;)
If you are correct about how they're dealing the game, (clarified below) you would be correct to virtually never fold. Why give up 2 for the cost of only 1, when you can recover 3 (2 not taken when you lose but they don't qualify, plus the 1x paid). At the very least, never fold if the board's not paired, 4toa flush or 4toanoutside straight - and you have nothing, even if you can only see 4 cards before you decide.
At this point, I may have to plan a trip down there to play.
When I say "If you are correct", I'm not saying you haven't seen this. It might be a particular dealer, crew, or something short of house rules, making an error. Or maybe they did the math wrong. Or maybe they've also got a non-standard Blind paytable that makes up for this. Or something else.
Quote: IbeatyouracesSounds like Texas Hold Em Bonus, not UTH.
Ok, so let's ask this question that might help define which game it is.
Is there a sidebet available? If so, does it pay for poker hands within the 7 cards you have (your 2 and the community 5), or does it pay for only what is in your 2 cards (like Aces paired, Ace/Face, etc.)?
Considering you will win your play bet anytime the dealer does not qualify i think 4x ing a wider range of hands should be profitable. I am thinking of 4x ing 56s +, 68s+, 98+ and all suited jacks. Would like mathematical input on what would be an optimal strategy based on their different rules. Also saw the dealer making mistakes in reading their own hands and allowing 6x raises preflop.
If you 4x your weaker hands you're betting 4x when your hand is a dog. Yes, the dealer will pay the 4x play bet when they don't qualify, but that's the same as not having a pair in pai gow, which I think is something like 21-23% of the time. Thus, the majority of the time you're just putting money in bad.
There are a couple ways you could make very good money at this game. PM me and perhaps we can do a little information share to benefit each other =).
Quote: RelaxursoulI went today and won like 13k pesos. Almost everyone plays bad and they let me 4x a hand hand that they do not like to 4x preflop (i.e ace rag, small pairs high suited connectors). The game is indeed uth as they have an ante, blind, play, and trips bet. There are no more bets possible. I estimate the edge to be 7-9% with optimal play. I will take pictures of the rules in spanish so you guys can see that what i am saying is indeed true. Anytime the dealer does NOT qualify they don't even see your cards( assuming you did not place a trips bet). They just pay pay your play bets and push the ante and blind bet. Maximum bet is 200 pesos for ante and blind. The casino floor does not allow players to show other players their cards, but they tell you to just verbally announce what you have to others who want to know.
Considering you will win your play bet anytime the dealer does not qualify i think 4x ing a wider range of hands should be profitable. I am thinking of 4x ing 56s +, 68s+, 98+ and all suited jacks. Would like mathematical input on what would be an optimal strategy based on their different rules. Also saw the dealer making mistakes in reading their own hands and allowing 6x raises preflop.
Maximum around $10US. Wow. There are a lot of places here where the minimum is higher.
I am not a math guy, so I can't give you a mathematically exact answer on the strategy. But me, I would continue to play the very aggressive strategy Grosjean/Wizard lay out, with the addition of what I said before about when to not fold. Because you're working without the river exposed, that probably affects the optimal strategy even more than the dealer non-qualifying. (Which means the EV of each individual play would have to be re-calculated to determine the best move, a large, long endeavor.) But the aggressive non-folding probably makes up for it. JMHO.
Quote: RelaxursoulYeah the max bet is extremely low but assuming an ev of 8% the profit can be huge long term. I wonder what my true ev is . Anyone have any tips on how to handle this leak on a table game. Considering not winning all the time so that it does not look suspicious.
To be honest, you should probably stop talking about it and just go play it. Unless you want to PM the casino's name and location to me, of course. :)
I am 4xing any hand with 47% equity or more preflop and then 2xing based on uth gto flop strategy. Calling or folding turn can be tricky but i always call if the board is non paired non 4 flush.
Sounds to me like you're playing correct for the most part. The variance in UTH is 24.29, and the SD thus is 4.93. Your average bet is 4.15*Ante, but this is for "basic strategy." Your AvgBet will be higher due to you betting more hands. I hope you'll see that you can work an EV from this, but your SD's are going to be fairly large... in which you can make, and lose, A LOT in any 1 given session.Quote: RelaxursoulLost like 12k today running horrible. I do not know how to post pics but if anyone wants a picture of the rules of the game send me a pm with your email and I will send pics. As i said I 4x hands with 47% equity or better such as k2+, j5+or better, 78s, etc. These borderline hands that are not supposed to be 4x in the regular game I think should be 4x in this game due to the fact that you will win when the dealer does not qualify. That is my intuition but would love to play a gto strategy for this game cause I've been running so bad I am starting to question if there is an edge. Variance can be a bitch. If anyone can help me contact the creator of this calculator https://wizardofodds.com/games/ultimate-texas-hold-em/calculator/ I would appreciate it very much.
source?Quote: RomesSounds to me like you're playing correct for the most part. The variance in UTH is 24.29,
Quote:and the SD thus is 4.93. Your average bet is 4.15*Ante, but this is for "basic strategy." Your AvgBet will be higher due to you betting more hands. I hope you'll see that you can work an EV from this, but your SD's are going to be fairly large... in which you can make, and lose, A LOT in any 1 given session.
You can look at EV/SD. Once your expected value approaches one SD, it should be telling. If you are still not clearly keeping away from deep losses by the time you exceed one SD in EV, likely something is wrong, because it required one SD of bad luck to counter your +EV at that point. If you aren't at least even [at starting bankroll] by 2 SDs, it's really starting to look bad.
When searching for my records I found a thread on blackjackinfo that actually pointed back to WOO with said information. I don't have the direct link on hand =/.Quote: odiousgambitsource?...
You will always lose at this game unless you "find an opportunity". Even then, winning is not guaranteed.
Some spoil sport is gonna ask for a pic!Quote: teddysI hit a straight flush the other day on a $10 game. Third one I've gotten lifetime playing UTH. Paid $500 on the blind. Tipped $10 to dealer.
What's a BP precious? Yesssss, I want to know.? What game are we playing here? I thought you were a VP guy, now I'm confused again, whatever.Quote: IbeatyouracesMy first "straight flush" was a royal. Ironically, one of the BP's had the 9 for the bottom end straight flush. I held A, 10 offsuit with the K, Q, J, 10 on board.
Big Player =)Quote: TwoFeathersATLWhat's a BP precious?...
Quote: RelaxursoulLost like 12k today running horrible. I do not know how to post pics but if anyone wants a picture of the rules of the game send me a pm with your email and I will send pics. As i said I 4x hands with 47% equity or better such as k2+, j5+or better, 78s, etc. These borderline hands that are not supposed to be 4x in the regular game I think should be 4x in this game due to the fact that you will win when the dealer does not qualify. That is my intuition but would love to play a gto strategy for this game cause I've been running so bad I am starting to question if there is an edge. Variance can be a bitch. If anyone can help me contact the creator of this calculator https://wizardofodds.com/games/ultimate-texas-hold-em/calculator/ I would appreciate it very much.
IMO, you are overplaying the advantage. The 4x/2x/1x optimal strategy is not affected by your local rules until the turn. When you fold (normal game), you fold when you do, in part, to conserve money by not betting the play, and ceding the blind/ante bets. When you play 1x and lose even though the dealer doesn't qualify, you lose the same amount, except it's the blind/play bets you cede. But in YOUR local game, you get paid whether your hand is better or worse, when the dealer doesn't qualify.
So the net gain is: push blind vs. fold-loss, push ante vs. fold-loss, win play x1 (rather than not betting it), a net gain of 3 vs. when you lose to a non-qualifier (assuming you folded, which I count as a loss), and the same pay when you win (that you'd get anyway). In these situations, the dealer's hand is weak enough that, if you stay (on all hands, not just your bad ones), you're much more than 50% likely to win anyway. The advantage YOU have there is that, even when you should lose, you're winning/saving bets for the next time. The math tells you when to fold based on your holdings, so that's the part you should adjust; when it appears the dealer is not likely to qualify, you should not fold.
The way you're doing it, you're giving back most/all/plus more of the progress you make with the fold/non-fold decision by betting -EV hands 4x. Don't tease yourself into psyching the 4x bet with bad hands before you even see the flop, because you have no idea at that point whether the dealer will qualify. Even the 2x bet is not smart with bad cards, though you could almost make the case that if the flop is rainbow and low, you might be slightly more aggressive there. (for example, perhaps that's where you bet the K2+ effectively). Again, my opinion, without the math skills to prove it to you.
It's your money, not mine, but I would play exactly the aggressive 4x/2x/1x the Wizard lists as , but not fold when the board's not paired or 4 to a flush or outside straight. The game's all about taking advantage of aggressive betting AT THE RIGHT TIME, and that includes selective folding. There's also the possibility you can improve on the river (since they don't show it) by not folding at the turn, which should help at least a few of your hands, too.
It may be that they pay the non-qualifiers as a balance to forcing you to bet without knowing the river. Maybe they mis-calculated the offsets. Or maybe it hurts more than our members think not to know the river before betting, and that's what you're experiencing now with the negative variance. But I don't think we're wrong; you do have an advantage, you just need to play for it differently.
Quote: HunterhillThe variance in UTH is high. You will have many losing sessions even if you do have an 8% edge. Even if you play UTH with a 20%+ edge you still have losing sessions. You found a nice opportunity but it's not the gold mine that you think it is.
A couple years ago in Atlantis I played UTH for 6 hours a day, for 5 days, $10 ante. Starting the morning of the 6th day I was up $75... I'd played 30 hours to essentially dead even.
On the 6th day I lost $900 in a couple hours. I lost so fast that the guy next to me went to the bathroom, returned, and said, "Dude, what happened to all your chips?"
Then this past October I played about 15 hours around Las Vegas, $10 and $15 ante games, and won about $2k.
The odds are calculated across infinite realities, but we only play in one reality. That is the difference between odds and variance.
Quote: HunterhillI'm not sure what you're trying to say Mosca.Yes you can play a negative ev game and win .You can also play a game with positive ev and lose.
I'm agreeing with you.
