Why isn't craps calculated in the Pass/Come House edge?
May 15th, 2014 at 1:02:36 PM
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Hi - totally new here :)
I'm also not a statistics guru, so don't laugh :) - I'm just very confused while trying to wrap my head around some things...
(So please be patient)
I'm trying to understand why craps numbers (2,3,12) aren't calculated while finding the Pass/Come House Edge.
Shouldn't something like this: [(8/36*$5)+(4/36*-$5)]/$5 be factored in somewhere?
Looks like the H.E. should be a little more than 1.41, since a win isn't assured during the C.O. - and it's looking as if it is within the calculations:
The overall probability of winning is 8/36 + 9648/35640 = 17568/35640 = 244/495
The probability of losing is obviously 1-(244/495) = 251/495
The player's edge is thus (244/495)×(+1) + (251/495)×(-1) = -7/495 ≈ -1.414%.
I know this has been calculated to death, but I just want to understand why craps wouldn't factored (or is it?) since it can make a Pass Line bet lose during the C.O. Please explain it to me as if I've just started statistics.
Thanks ahead of time!
I'm also not a statistics guru, so don't laugh :) - I'm just very confused while trying to wrap my head around some things...
(So please be patient)
I'm trying to understand why craps numbers (2,3,12) aren't calculated while finding the Pass/Come House Edge.
Shouldn't something like this: [(8/36*$5)+(4/36*-$5)]/$5 be factored in somewhere?
Looks like the H.E. should be a little more than 1.41, since a win isn't assured during the C.O. - and it's looking as if it is within the calculations:
The overall probability of winning is 8/36 + 9648/35640 = 17568/35640 = 244/495
The probability of losing is obviously 1-(244/495) = 251/495
The player's edge is thus (244/495)×(+1) + (251/495)×(-1) = -7/495 ≈ -1.414%.
I know this has been calculated to death, but I just want to understand why craps wouldn't factored (or is it?) since it can make a Pass Line bet lose during the C.O. Please explain it to me as if I've just started statistics.
Thanks ahead of time!
May 15th, 2014 at 1:34:14 PM
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of course the craps numbers are included
the Wizard just did not show them, he just included them in my opinion.
Here is a table I came up with and I think I included every path to a win and a loss
maybe it helps
Sally
the Wizard just did not show them, he just included them in my opinion.
Here is a table I came up with and I think I included every path to a win and a loss
maybe it helps
| Event | Prob | path taken | result | result* Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 or 11 | 0.222222222 | 8/36 | 1 | 0.222222222 |
| Craps | 0.111111111 | 4/36 | -1 | -0.111111111 |
| 4 Made | 0.027777778 | 3/36 * 3/9 | 1 | 0.027777778 |
| 4 Not | 0.055555556 | 3/36 * 6/9 | -1 | -0.055555556 |
| 5 Made | 0.044444444 | 4/36 * 4/10 | 1 | 0.044444444 |
| 5 Not | 0.066666667 | 4/36 * 6/10 | -1 | -0.066666667 |
| 6 Made | 0.063131313 | 5/36 * 5/11 | 1 | 0.063131313 |
| 6 Not | 0.075757576 | 5/36 * 6/11 | -1 | -0.075757576 |
| 8 Made | 0.063131313 | 5/36 * 5/11 | 1 | 0.063131313 |
| 8 Not | 0.075757576 | 5/36 * 6/11 | -1 | -0.075757576 |
| 9 Made | 0.044444444 | 4/36 * 4/10 | 1 | 0.044444444 |
| 9 Not | 0.066666667 | 4/36 * 6/10 | -1 | -0.066666667 |
| 10 Made | 0.027777778 | 3/36 * 3/9 | 1 | 0.027777778 |
| 10 Not | 0.055555556 | 3/36 * 6/9 | -1 | -0.055555556 |
| Totals - | 1 | . | . | -0.014141414 |
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
May 15th, 2014 at 2:07:50 PM
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I figured as much - not including them confused me - which is pretty easy LOL...
I truly appreciate your time and help, this is perfect!
I have another question, but if I can't find the answer, I'll add a new post.
Thanks again Sally
I truly appreciate your time and help, this is perfect!
I have another question, but if I can't find the answer, I'll add a new post.
Thanks again Sally
