Optimal craps strategy

I believe this question really belongs here while many might think it belongs in the Craps thread.

I'm looking to play craps. I have a pretty small bankroll and want to lower the variance, while seeking good EV. I'm deciding between two betting strategies. Continuous FLAT come bets, or simply place bets on the 6 and 8. Which one is better?

If memory serves correctly, there's about 8.5 rolls/shooter, meaning at around 8 decisions on pass/come bets I stand to lose in the vicinity of $0.63/per shooter. Since my other option is 6,8 things get tricky. If I start with one unit and press one unit every hit, what's my average bet? I would think its much more than one unit, but simply not sure how I should calculate this.

I have some real problems with that word "optimal". First of all, this is supposed to be fun and that means its rather personal and unique to you. If you like free drinks alot might depend on which casino serves your favorite beer or something.

A game that is on the strip will move fast... you can be broke before you finish that first beer.
A game in a really local casino will be slow and you can savor that beer.

Crew experience and competence varies also.

I'd do the PassLine/ComeLine option (exact same bet made at different times).

Placing the six and eight is nice and my companion tends to do it half the night often pressing her first few wins.

So the first question is what do enjoy? If you come home broke there is no use saying that the beer was warm also.

Place bets have higher HE and more variance.

I wouldnt make many come bets with a small bankroll. I *would* decide what max odds plus a line bet would be, decide about the risk of ruin on that vis a vis my bankroll, and not play at all if ruin seemed too likely.

Thank you for the replies. What I was curious about was average bet and average loss on a 6,8 if I press one unit each hit. I did a summation (5/11)^x (x+1) which gave me ~3.36 units. My average loss is about the same as flat come bets.

Assuming you choose between a £5 Pass line bet and a £6 Place bet, in theory the latter lasts longer. This is because during the come out roll you're just watching. The other factor is you have to choose between the 6 and 8 - and sod's law apply that you'll pick the wrong one. With a Pass line bet (ignoring that Don't pass is technically superior) you just go with the flow, and don't have to make another decision; also you'll tend to go with the table.

Quote: charliepatrick

Assuming you choose between a £5 Pass line bet and a £6 Place bet, in theory the latter lasts longer. This is because during the come out roll you're just watching. The other factor is you have to choose between the 6 and 8 - and sod's law apply that you'll pick the wrong one. With a Pass line bet (ignoring that Don't pass is technically superior) you just go with the flow, and don't have to make another decision; also you'll tend to go with the table.

the pass line is also not a one-roll bet, if there is a point to make, and usually there is

Quote: ewjones080

I'm looking to play craps. I have a pretty small bankroll and want to lower the variance, while seeking good EV. I'm deciding between two betting strategies. Continuous FLAT come bets, or simply place bets on the 6 and 8. Which one is better?

you mean comparing ev and variance

Quote: ewjones080

If memory serves correctly, there's about 8.5 rolls/shooter, meaning at around 8 decisions on pass/come bets I stand to lose in the vicinity of $0.63/per shooter.

average # of rolls per shooter =1671/196
so we can use 8.5

$5 pass/come
x odds
ev per shooter
$sd
var

1 pass line bet per shooter (only one, so 1/3 of the shooters on average you only make a $5 bet and wait it out until another shooter)
-0.070707071
1x odds
$9.47
89.59
2x odds
$14.29
204.19

pass line bet with 1x odds (only about 2.5 bets on average per shooter)
-0.176767677
1x odds
$14.97
223.98

pass/come per shooter every roll - no odds
-0.602813853
$14.60
213.10 (5*(1+1))^2*p*(1-p)*(1671/196) p=244/495

Quote: ewjones080

Since my other option is 6,8 things get tricky. If I start with one unit and press one unit every hit, what's my average bet? I would think its much more than one unit, but simply not sure how I should calculate this.

Your average resolved bet is $11. I could calculate it but it was already in the sim data

simulation (100k shooters)
Place 6&8 for $6 each
up $6 on every win
not working on come out roll
per shooter results

ev: -0.70
sd: $31.43
var: 988
avg resolved bet: $11
low: -12


Place 6&8 for $6 each
up $6 on every win
always working on come out roll (maybe not a "feel good" way to play)
ev: -0.76
sd: $37.46
var: 1403
avg resolved bet: $11
low: -106

"Which one is better?"
your choice

your place bets have the highest ev (can only lose max $12 per shooter when bets not working on the come out)

Sally