April 29th, 2010 at 10:17:10 AM
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First, an apology if this has been addressed elsewhere. My search revealed nada.
My question is this:
In order to maximize EV, what amount should one typically wager on moneyline favorites vs. underdogs?
In other words, if a bettor's typical wager is $100, and you assume the following MLB line:
NYM (+140)
ATL (-160)
If I liked ATL in this scenario, I'd typically lay the $160 to win $100. If I liked NYM, I'd lay $100 to win the $140, but my gut tells me this isn't right.
Has anyone crunched the numbers on this? Is it better to risk just $100 if you like ATL, but still risk $100 if you like NYM. Or would one risk $160 to win $100 on ATL, and risk $71.42 to win $100 if you like NYM? Or some variation of the two?
There's got to be a standard formula here to maximize expected value, no? For a single game it may not make much difference, but over the course of an entire baseball season.......
Thanks in advance for the help!!
My question is this:
In order to maximize EV, what amount should one typically wager on moneyline favorites vs. underdogs?
In other words, if a bettor's typical wager is $100, and you assume the following MLB line:
NYM (+140)
ATL (-160)
If I liked ATL in this scenario, I'd typically lay the $160 to win $100. If I liked NYM, I'd lay $100 to win the $140, but my gut tells me this isn't right.
Has anyone crunched the numbers on this? Is it better to risk just $100 if you like ATL, but still risk $100 if you like NYM. Or would one risk $160 to win $100 on ATL, and risk $71.42 to win $100 if you like NYM? Or some variation of the two?
There's got to be a standard formula here to maximize expected value, no? For a single game it may not make much difference, but over the course of an entire baseball season.......
Thanks in advance for the help!!
April 29th, 2010 at 11:18:58 AM
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Thank you for the response, but I must be missing something.
I read the moneyline section where you discuss the EV for various general types of moneyline wagers, but I don't see any discussion on the dollar amount one should risk on a moneyline favorite vs. a moneyline underdog?
I read the moneyline section where you discuss the EV for various general types of moneyline wagers, but I don't see any discussion on the dollar amount one should risk on a moneyline favorite vs. a moneyline underdog?