ryan2345
ryan2345
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April 29th, 2010 at 10:17:10 AM permalink
First, an apology if this has been addressed elsewhere. My search revealed nada.

My question is this:

In order to maximize EV, what amount should one typically wager on moneyline favorites vs. underdogs?

In other words, if a bettor's typical wager is $100, and you assume the following MLB line:

NYM (+140)
ATL (-160)

If I liked ATL in this scenario, I'd typically lay the $160 to win $100. If I liked NYM, I'd lay $100 to win the $140, but my gut tells me this isn't right.

Has anyone crunched the numbers on this? Is it better to risk just $100 if you like ATL, but still risk $100 if you like NYM. Or would one risk $160 to win $100 on ATL, and risk $71.42 to win $100 if you like NYM? Or some variation of the two?

There's got to be a standard formula here to maximize expected value, no? For a single game it may not make much difference, but over the course of an entire baseball season.......

Thanks in advance for the help!!
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
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April 29th, 2010 at 10:39:27 AM permalink
The answer to that question can be found here.
"My life is spent in one long effort to escape from the commonplace of existence. These little problems help me to do so." -- Sherlock Holmes
ryan2345
ryan2345
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Joined: Apr 29, 2010
April 29th, 2010 at 11:18:58 AM permalink
Thank you for the response, but I must be missing something.

I read the moneyline section where you discuss the EV for various general types of moneyline wagers, but I don't see any discussion on the dollar amount one should risk on a moneyline favorite vs. a moneyline underdog?
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