ryan2345
ryan2345
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April 29th, 2010 at 10:17:10 AM permalink
First, an apology if this has been addressed elsewhere. My search revealed nada.

My question is this:

In order to maximize EV, what amount should one typically wager on moneyline favorites vs. underdogs?

In other words, if a bettor's typical wager is $100, and you assume the following MLB line:

NYM (+140)
ATL (-160)

If I liked ATL in this scenario, I'd typically lay the $160 to win $100. If I liked NYM, I'd lay $100 to win the $140, but my gut tells me this isn't right.

Has anyone crunched the numbers on this? Is it better to risk just $100 if you like ATL, but still risk $100 if you like NYM. Or would one risk $160 to win $100 on ATL, and risk $71.42 to win $100 if you like NYM? Or some variation of the two?

There's got to be a standard formula here to maximize expected value, no? For a single game it may not make much difference, but over the course of an entire baseball season.......

Thanks in advance for the help!!
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
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April 29th, 2010 at 10:39:27 AM permalink
The answer to that question can be found here.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
ryan2345
ryan2345
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Joined: Apr 29, 2010
April 29th, 2010 at 11:18:58 AM permalink
Thank you for the response, but I must be missing something.

I read the moneyline section where you discuss the EV for various general types of moneyline wagers, but I don't see any discussion on the dollar amount one should risk on a moneyline favorite vs. a moneyline underdog?
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