Online MMORPG Gambling

So I play World of Warcraft in addition to enjoying frequenting the casinos IRL. In game, some people make money by running a 'casino' where you bet an amount of money, roll the dice, and depending on the outcome you win a certain amount. The roll is built into the game and there is no way to cheat it (it controls handing out loot and many things within game and this is a game played by millions). I'm not concerned with any integrity.

It has been quite a few years since any statistics and my brain doesn't work like it used to so I'm wondering if someone could explain the expected 'house' advantage in the following scenario.


Rolls are 1-100, 0 is not possible.
Roll 1-64, you lose.
Roll 65-94 you win double your bet (wager 10, win 20 or even money).
Roll 95-100 you win triple your bet (wager 10, win 30 or two to one).

What's the edge there?

Another variation makes it that instead of triple on a 100, you win 5x (or 4-to-1).

Could someone help me out with the odds here? Much appreciation in advance!

Quote: psychicacid

Rolls are 1-100, 0 is not possible.
Roll 1-64, you lose.
Roll 65-94 you win double your bet (wager 10, win 20 or even money).
Roll 95-100 you win triple your bet (wager 10, win 30 or two to one).

What's the edge there?

Another variation makes it that instead of triple on a 100, you win 5x (or 4-to-1).

Could someone help me out with the odds here? Much appreciation in advance!

Bet ten units:

(6/100 * 20) = 1.2

(30/100 * 10) = 3

(64/100 * -10) = -6.4

Expected return: -2.2 on 10 units bet = House Edge 22%.

Other version:

(5/100) * 20 = 1

(30/100 * 10) = 3

(64/100 * -10) = -6.4

(1/100 * 40) = .4

Expected Return: -2 on 10 units bet = House Edge 20%

That game sucks even for fake money!!!

It sounds like you are rolling a single 100 sided die, is that correct?

Quote: Mission146

House Edge 20%
That game sucks even for fake money!!!

Why "sucks"?
It may be that, in the game, you need the double value for something, but can't do anything with the simple value. Then the game has positive expected utility.

Quote: kubikulann

Why "sucks"?
It may be that, in the game, you need the double value for something, but can't do anything with the simple value. Then the game has positive expected utility.

Indeed. Time is a huge factor in these games, it's all about maximizing value of time. Despite the fact that the game itself carries a large HE, it may be worth it in time value to collect a small amount of money and gamble it, versus just using the time to aquire the desired amount through dungeon raids (which also are a gamble, since loot is usually split using the same rolling procedures, although at a "fair toss").

In that event, please kindly excuse my misinformed and ignorant post. Being unaware of how these MMORPG's work, I just figured that a 20% HE automatically sucks.

Quote: Mission146

In that event, please kindly excuse my misinformed and ignorant post. Being unaware of how these MMORPG's work, I just figured that a 20% HE automatically sucks.

The 'casino' is a player. he's getting plenty of time value out of the games too, it seems.

Quote: thecesspit

The 'casino' is a player. he's getting plenty of time value out of the games too, it seems.

Now, I didn't know that was possible. I think I'd enjoy a RPG as a "casino". I pretty much gave them up after a year of D & D in college, but I was tired of being an underpowered elf in Middle Earth, too. Had the misconception that you had to be some character, not that you could run a business in there.

Quote: beachbumbabs

Now, I didn't know that was possible. I think I'd enjoy a RPG as a "casino". I pretty much gave them up after a year of D & D in college, but I was tired of being an underpowered elf in Middle Earth, too. Had the misconception that you had to be some character, not that you could run a business in there.

Your character can be a business, I guess. There's the folks who run around 'crafting' new items all the time and resell them for in game currency. I suspect there's a way of parleying that into out of game money too. Or having a friendly guild supply the materials and help you out in return for making 'cool' new stuff.