Correct Bet Sizing in Blackjack
November 18th, 2013 at 9:11:59 AM
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An online casino is offering me a 320 % first deposit bonus. I am planning to deposit 50 bucks and try to release 160 $.
The game that I have chosen to play is Blackjack surrender in which I probably have the best odds.
Surrender is allowed. Dealer stands on soft 17. Double after splitting is allowed. Re-splitting is not allowed. Blackjack pays 2 to 1. AA receives only one card after splittings.
According to the site for releasing my bonus, I have to bet 30 times of my bonus and blackjack counts for 20 %. So it would be 150 times of my bonus size which is 24000.
The question is what is the best bet sizing amount to get the most out of this bonus. And what is the probability to end up with a profit after betting 24K ?
Regards
The game that I have chosen to play is Blackjack surrender in which I probably have the best odds.
Surrender is allowed. Dealer stands on soft 17. Double after splitting is allowed. Re-splitting is not allowed. Blackjack pays 2 to 1. AA receives only one card after splittings.
According to the site for releasing my bonus, I have to bet 30 times of my bonus and blackjack counts for 20 %. So it would be 150 times of my bonus size which is 24000.
The question is what is the best bet sizing amount to get the most out of this bonus. And what is the probability to end up with a profit after betting 24K ?
Regards
November 18th, 2013 at 9:27:37 AM
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2 to 1 on BJ or 2 for 1 ?
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
November 18th, 2013 at 9:31:05 AM
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deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
November 18th, 2013 at 9:44:24 AM
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I'm Sorry it is 3 to 2. The most common blackjack. I calculated the house edge here :
and it was 0.40996% (optimal) and 0.42586% (realistic).
I have to add that the bonus is in the account and playable. but can't be cashed out until the 24K is reached.
and it was 0.40996% (optimal) and 0.42586% (realistic).
I have to add that the bonus is in the account and playable. but can't be cashed out until the 24K is reached.
November 18th, 2013 at 10:48:15 AM
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be very very cautious with online casinos. You are about 10 years too late to try bonus whoring. A lot of us made a living doing it in 2000-2005? Now a days they make you wager 150x and if you do make it through good luck getting them to actually pay you.
A few details may be wrong since it was a few years ago, but a few years back I received an offer for Cool cat casino. It was simply $50 free. I think the wagering requirement was like 5x on slots. I played only because they have 2 games that I actually like playing (Aztek something and Cleopatra). I didn't care about cashing out, I was just playing for fun. Well it just so happens that I hit a jackpot for $5000. I just laughed to myself because I knew there was no way I was going to see a dime. I ended up playing a ton after that on slots only and got it down to $4000. I probably had 20k though their slots so I tried to cash out. It was pending for a while and then my account was locked. There was no explanation, just a locked account. I emailed support and was told that my winnings were void because I had used a free play bonus years ago with another casino that was owned by the same people. There was nothing I could do and no one that I could call.
I just wanted to share my story so you don't get screwed and if you do then you have been warned. Now granted, there are some honest ones and like I said, back in the day I cashed out tens of thousands from online casinos.
A few details may be wrong since it was a few years ago, but a few years back I received an offer for Cool cat casino. It was simply $50 free. I think the wagering requirement was like 5x on slots. I played only because they have 2 games that I actually like playing (Aztek something and Cleopatra). I didn't care about cashing out, I was just playing for fun. Well it just so happens that I hit a jackpot for $5000. I just laughed to myself because I knew there was no way I was going to see a dime. I ended up playing a ton after that on slots only and got it down to $4000. I probably had 20k though their slots so I tried to cash out. It was pending for a while and then my account was locked. There was no explanation, just a locked account. I emailed support and was told that my winnings were void because I had used a free play bonus years ago with another casino that was owned by the same people. There was nothing I could do and no one that I could call.
I just wanted to share my story so you don't get screwed and if you do then you have been warned. Now granted, there are some honest ones and like I said, back in the day I cashed out tens of thousands from online casinos.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed.
I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
November 18th, 2013 at 11:04:55 AM
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Well, Actually I live in Italy where online gambling is regulated by government so such things can't happen. The website that I am talking about is 32red.com (which in Italy is .it)
Actually I think if it is free money why not giving it a shot.
Actually I think if it is free money why not giving it a shot.
November 18th, 2013 at 11:27:18 AM
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You need 24000 in action, at a house-edge of 0.4%. Your expected loss is $96, so there is only a small expected profit of $64.
Your bet size affects your risk-of-ruin. If we assume you won't be depositing more to chase down the bonus, this is a serious concern. If you make 10 euro bets, you need to bet 2400 hands, and my risk-of-ruin table says you have much greater than 50% chance of ruin.
If you make 1 euro bets, you need to bet 24000 hands, and my ror tables don't go that high. I estimate a risk of ruin of about 20%.
At this bet size, your hourly profit will be miniscule. I say not worth it.
Your bet size affects your risk-of-ruin. If we assume you won't be depositing more to chase down the bonus, this is a serious concern. If you make 10 euro bets, you need to bet 2400 hands, and my risk-of-ruin table says you have much greater than 50% chance of ruin.
If you make 1 euro bets, you need to bet 24000 hands, and my ror tables don't go that high. I estimate a risk of ruin of about 20%.
At this bet size, your hourly profit will be miniscule. I say not worth it.
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
November 18th, 2013 at 11:33:36 AM
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Quote: BeatdaHouseWell, Actually I live in Italy where online gambling is regulated by government so such things can't happen. The website that I am talking about is 32red.com (which in Italy is .it)
Actually I think if it is free money why not giving it a shot.
oh lol, well never mind then
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed.
I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
November 18th, 2013 at 1:27:26 PM
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Well, you are right... anyway for me playing blackjack is also fun. So I want to do it.
I found this page for calculating risk of ruin and best bet sizing but I don't know how to apply it to my case
I appriciate if someone can help.
Thanks
I found this page for calculating risk of ruin and best bet sizing but I don't know how to apply it to my case
I appriciate if someone can help.
Thanks
