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ybot
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May 6th, 2013 at 3:06:44 AM permalink
Hi, I'd like to undestand this distribution used to work with roulette probabilities.

For example:
Trials=179
Successes= 5 or more hits
P=1/37(strait up bet)

How do you make the formula and what do of the terms mean?

Thanks in advance
s2dbaker
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May 6th, 2013 at 3:16:15 AM permalink
I'll just tack this link in here for reference. I thought this thread was about fish.
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
ybot
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May 6th, 2013 at 3:46:38 AM permalink
Thank you for the link.
In my example, how do you get the outcome?
MangoJ
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May 6th, 2013 at 9:18:25 AM permalink
The Poisson distribution is the probability distribution for the number of independent events occuring at a fixed rate. It is not an exact but an exact limiting distribution, in the limit of large number of tries.
ybot
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May 6th, 2013 at 9:53:36 AM permalink
Nice answers but, anyone knows the probability to hit 5 or more times after playing 179 spins on a singlezero wheel?
And, what formulas to use.
thecesspit
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May 6th, 2013 at 10:02:29 AM permalink
Quote: ybot

Nice answers but, anyone knows the probability to hit 5 or more times after playing 179 spins on a singlezero wheel?
And, what formulas to use.



Use Excel : =1-POISSON.DIST(4,179/37,TRUE)

The formula calclulates getting 0-4 hits of an event with a mean value of 179 / 37. 179 is the number of spins. 1/37 the odds of it occuring each spin : 4.83 hits on average.

Result = 53%.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
ybot
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May 6th, 2013 at 10:06:15 AM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

Use Excel : =1-POISSON.DIST(4,179/37,TRUE)

The formula calclulates getting 0-4 hits of an event with a mean value of 179 / 37. 179 is the number of spins. 1/37 the odds of it occuring each spin : 4.83 hits on average.

Result = 53%.



Thank you very much for you help Thecesspit.
ybot
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June 27th, 2013 at 1:25:49 PM permalink
Supose we want to know the probabiity to lose 10 strait bets playing 7 numbers using poisoon distribution.
probability 7/37
sample=10


thanks in advance
CrystalMath
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June 27th, 2013 at 3:11:33 PM permalink
Quote: ybot

Hi, I'd like to undestand this distribution used to work with roulette probabilities.

For example:
Trials=179
Successes= 5 or more hits
P=1/37(strait up bet)

How do you make the formula and what do of the terms mean?

Thanks in advance



First, I would not use the Poisson distribution, because it is meant for a large number of samples. Instead, I would use the binomial distribution.

In Excel: =BINOMDIST(4,179,1/37,TRUE)

You'll get a slightly different probability than using the poisson distribution. They're pretty close, but the binomial is the correct one.
I heart Crystal Math.
CrystalMath
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June 27th, 2013 at 3:14:00 PM permalink
Quote: ybot

Supose we want to know the probabiity to lose 10 strait bets playing 7 numbers using poisoon distribution.
probability 7/37
sample=10



The probability is (30/37)^10 = 12.28%, but this also assumes that you don't care if you win or lose on the 11th bet.
I heart Crystal Math.
ybot
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June 27th, 2013 at 3:22:53 PM permalink
Thank you very much CrystalMath
ybot
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June 27th, 2013 at 3:26:36 PM permalink
Quote: CrystalMath

The probability is (30/37)^10 = 12.28%, but this also assumes that you don't care if you win or lose on the 11th bet.



What about 10 or MORE misses?
beachbumbabs
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June 27th, 2013 at 5:03:10 PM permalink
I, too, thought this was about fishin' holes. Although, in a way, it still is. lol...D'oh!
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
CrystalMath
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June 27th, 2013 at 8:15:41 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

I, too, thought this was about fishin' holes. Although, in a way, it still is. lol...D'oh!


:)

The probability of 10 or more is the same as I listed for 10, because this only takes into account the first 10 games and the 11th could be a loss or a win.

But, if you play exactly 179 games, the probabilitiy that you will have 1 or more streak of 10+ losses is 99.648%.
I heart Crystal Math.
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