Superpal
Superpal
Joined: Mar 26, 2013
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March 26th, 2013 at 4:08:13 AM permalink
" What is not the same is not equal ..." - Casino offers a table choice - play Baccarat with House deducting 5% commission on Banker wins..... or NO commission with only 1:2 payout if Banker wins on a 6 point total - WHICH TABLE GIVES THE GAMBLER BETTER ODDS ?... The Casino also offers SIDE BETS , 11- 1 on winning pairs or 12 -1 if Banker wins on a 6 point total - While these are poor odds , the Casino allows gamblers to keep a pencil / paper tally ! How about card counting and LATE PLAY PAIRS when the 8 deck shoe is rich in certain pairs , or LATE PLAY BANKER when the shoe is poor in 6's ( or other 6 combos , e.g. 5+1 , 4+2 , 3 +3 ) ?? I realize that this might be exhausting to show a tiny profit , but ...makes a nice theoretical question !
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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March 26th, 2013 at 4:47:45 AM permalink
Even a theoretical question can have practical effects.

You mention a flurry of side bets. In general side bets are sucker bets... is all your card counting really going to change that. Is your card counting even going to be accurate enough? Will there be fatigue and frustration that affects your "theoretical" results even more?


Now what about this fifteen percent commission.... usually its five percent. Or a 19:20 payout on Banker but a 20:20 payout on Player.

You can work out all the math you want but it works out usually to not much difference.

Pass/Don'tPass; Banker/Player; Odd/Even; Red/Black ... it just don't make much difference. It really doesn't. Oh, sure, you can carry things out to five decimal places but they don't have chips that go that far.
Superpal
Superpal
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March 26th, 2013 at 6:14:03 AM permalink
Thanks for reply ! - Of course , side bets ARE sucker bets , but with slow , folded , card revealing , only 4 - 6 cards per hand , slow payouts , and an allowable pencil / paper tally...ALL THIS should make counting easy !... Is the count enough to make a sucker bet VIABLE ?...and , duh - misstated the original question - meant to say 5% commission. Sorry !
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
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March 26th, 2013 at 9:41:43 AM permalink
Yeah, I was puzzled by that 15 percent figure that seemed to appear out of thin air.

I will admit that no matter how tired a player is and no matte rhow soused he is by the free alcohol or desire to avoid "heat", the presence of pencil and paper will always be a distinct aid to card counting. Particularly since some places not only provide forms and golf pencils but almost ram them down the players throat in an attempt to force their actual use.
EvenBob
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
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March 26th, 2013 at 1:46:02 PM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

Particularly since some places not only provide forms and golf pencils but almost ram them down the players throat in an attempt to force their actual use.



I've played a lot of bac and not that many players
use them. A few do, but most players are Asian
and they wait for the Big Player to bet so they can
follow his lead. Its like watching lemmings. If you
bet the opposite, they kill you with their eyes..
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
kubikulann
kubikulann
Joined: Jun 28, 2011
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March 27th, 2013 at 4:37:19 AM permalink
Well, the big difference is that in the commission system, the best bet is "Banker" while in the "6" version it is "Player"!
Look in the Wizard pages to have the figures.
Reperiet qui quaesiverit
Superpal
Superpal
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March 27th, 2013 at 10:40:25 PM permalink
Thanks for reply - will check the Wiz for Bac versus Super Six stats. Do you have any data on the value of card counting with reference to LATE ENTRY PLAY - especially looking for a nearly expired shoe rich in certain pairs for a VIABLE side bet (realizing that these are almost always sucker bets )...or looking for a nearly expired shoe with most 6 combinations ALREADY GONE in order to make a VIABLE Banker bet ( little possibility of 1:2 payout ) ? These were supplementary questions to the original thread, and might require exhaustive play for the tiniest conceivable edge...Your reply would be much appreciated...
Yours,..Superpal
Superpal
Superpal
Joined: Mar 26, 2013
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March 28th, 2013 at 12:08:29 AM permalink
Quote: Superpal

Thanks for reply - will check the Wiz for Bac versus Super Six stats. Do you have any data on the value of card counting with reference to LATE ENTRY PLAY - especially looking for a nearly expired shoe rich in certain pairs for a VIABLE side bet (realizing that these are almost always sucker bets )...or looking for a nearly expired shoe with most 6 combinations ALREADY GONE in order to make a VIABLE Banker bet ( little possibility of 1:2 payout ) ? These were supplementary questions to the original thread, and might require exhaustive play for the tiniest conceivable edge...Your reply would be much appreciated...
Yours,..Superpal

Superpal
Superpal
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March 28th, 2013 at 12:11:42 AM permalink
Noli nothis permittere te terere !
kubikulann
kubikulann
Joined: Jun 28, 2011
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March 28th, 2013 at 8:02:13 AM permalink
In baccarat, there is virtually no advantage play for counters.
Why is that?
Because even with absolute certainty of the remaining cards, you have no way of knowing their order in the shoe. Yet that order is essentially what determines the winner. With the same cards, the probability of P or B winning is quasi the same.

When there is a difference, the cause is either because of the drawing rule (creates a very slight distorsion between B and P), or because of the "winning 6" that reduces payment on the B bet. But I haven't been able to find significant (i.e. profitable) advantage in real-life situations, where you can't know the exact content of the shoe, and certainly not of the cards due for this hand (remember, there is a cut card, they never go to the end of the shoe).

As for the side bets, I don't know. My feeling is, as previous contributors mentioned, that you would spend a lot of effort on a slight improvement of your odds, but remain stuck on a sucker bet anyway. Don't bother.
Reperiet qui quaesiverit

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