Do the odds change if you only bet at certain times?

I have fun playing craps and don't believe I can beat the casino. However, what intrigues me is the math portion.
Let me explain, I know the odds for laying the 4 & 10 and don't pass. So if I did $80 plus vig on the lay 10 don't pass and 5 on the field.
For the come out only.

And, inside 22 for first 1-2 rolls only. How do I calculate that?

The money I bring is a cover charge for entertainment. But, to satisfy my curiosity I would like to quantify this some how.

"Do the odds change if you only bet at certain times?"

They do change. You have to look at the edge per roll for the bets you're making (except for the field which is a one-roll bet). I'll let the craps hounds say more about that.

Quote: Beethoven9th

"Do the odds change if you only bet at certain times?"
ANSWER: Unless you can see into the future and know what the next roll is going to be, then No.

Or conversely one can say that AFTER the roll, its a certainty one way or the other, so no odds at all.

Consider the Field Bet: 2.77 percent if you are at a generous table wherein 2 is Double Pay and 12 is Triple Pay. Otherwise a field bet is 5.54 percent against you. Now that ain't too bad but it is getting into territory that some people just don't like to go to. One thing is certain: It is one of those two percentages against you, no matter what other circumstances prevail. Come out roll, Naked Shooter, Drunk Shooter, Daytime, Nighttime... it doesn't change.

Quote: FleaStiff

Or conversely one can say that AFTER the roll, its a certainty one way or the other, so no odds at all.

Consider the Field Bet: 2.77 percent if you are at a generous table wherein 2 is Double Pay and 12 is Triple Pay. Otherwise a field bet is 5.54 percent against you. Now that ain't too bad but it is getting into territory that some people just don't like to go to. One thing is certain: It is one of those two percentages against you, no matter what other circumstances prevail. Come out roll, Naked Shooter, Drunk Shooter, Daytime, Nighttime... it doesn't change.

When a seven rolls on the come out you only lose the don't pass but get paid four and 10. The field bets pays when don't pass pushes.

But, I posted it in the math section because I'd like to learn how to calculate the odds. If the table rolls say 76 times and I'm only betting 25% of the time. The odds should change because a variable change. Mathmatically, how many come outs results in crap, seven or point?
And once point is established how many times is the point hit?
What is the average number of rolls to a seven?

If a variable changes the end result has to change.

Also

Each roll is independe

Quote: wrighj03

I have fun playing craps and don't believe I can beat the casino. However, what intrigues me is the math portion.
Let me explain, I know the odds for laying the 4 & 10 and don't pass. So if I did $80 plus vig on the lay 10 don't pass and 5 on the field.
For the come out only.

And, inside 22 for first 1-2 rolls only. How do I calculate that?

The money I bring is a cover charge for entertainment. But, to satisfy my curiosity I would like to quantify this some how.

This is easy enough to do, although I'm missing some important information. The information that I am missing is what the Field Pays and if the Commission on your Lay is always paid or paid only on a win.

Were the casino the Santa Ana Star in New Mexico, you odd to change that Lay into a Buy and keep the Field Bet for a 0% HE. You'd probably never get to shoot without making a Line Bet, but that must be one of the only Craps Tables on Earth where a Line Bet is a bad bet compared to some others!

Anyway, so now I have to make some assumptions about the Pays because I don't really know when I will have time to get this done. I'm also not certain I fully understand whether you are doing $40+Vig on each or $80+Vig on each, so I'm going with $40. My Rules are that the Field Doubles Snake Eyes and Triples Midnight, and your commission is paid only on a win for those Lay Bets. If that's not the case, let me know, and I'll break that down if I have time.

OK, here we go:

Result 1: Snake Eyes

Probability: 1/36 (2.7778%)

Lay Bet: Picked Up

Field: +$10

Don't Pass: +$10

Net Win: $20

Expected Win: $20 * .027778 = $0.5556

Result 2: Acey-Deucey

Probability: 2/36 (5.5556%)

Lay Bet: Picked Up

Field: +$5

Don't Pass: +$10

Net Win: $15

Expected Win: $15 * .05556 = $0.8334

Result 3: Four Established

Probability: 3/36 (8.3333%)

Lay Bet: -$40

Field: + $5

Net (w/o DP Resolution): -$35

DP Win: .6667 * $10 = $6.667

DP Loss: .3333 * 10 = -$3.333

Probability: Four Established, Made .08333 * .3333 = .02777 * -$45 = -$1.2498

Probability: Four Established, Seven-Out .08333 * .6667 = .05556 * -$25 = -$1.3889

Result 4: Five Established

Probability: 4/36 = .1111

Lay Bet: Picked Up

Field: -$5

DP Win: .6 * $10 = $6.00

DP Loss: .4 * 10 = -$4.00

Probability: Five Established, Made .1111 * .4 = .04444 * -15 = -$0.6666

Probability, Five Established, Missed: .1111 * .6 = .06666 * 5 = $0.3333

Result 5, Six Established

Probability: 5/36 = .1389

Lay Bet: Picked Up

Field: -$5

DP Win: .5455 * 10 = $5.455

DP Loss: .4545 *-$10 = -$4.545

Probability: Six Established, Made .1389 * .4545 = .06313 * -$15 = -$0.94695

Probability: Six Established, Missed: .1389 * .5455 = .07577 * 5 = $0.37884

Result 6, Come Out Seven

Probability: 6/36 = .1667

Lay Bets: +$38

Field: -$5

Don't Pass: -$10

.1667 * $23 = $3.8341

Result 7, Eight Established

Probability: 5/36 = .1389

Lay Bet: Picked Up

Field: -$5

DP Win: .5455 * 10 = $5.455

DP Loss: .4545 *-$10 = -$4.545

Probability: Eight Established, Made .1389 * .4545 = .06313 * -$15 = -$0.94695

Probability: Eight Established, Missed: .1389 * .5455 = .07577 * 5 = $0.37884

Result 8, Nine Established

Probability: 4/36 = .1111

Lay Bet: Picked Up

Field: +$5

DP Win: .6 * $10 = $6.00

DP Loss: .4 * 10 = -$4.00

Probability: Nine Established, Made .1111 * .4 = .04444 * -5 = -$0.2222

Probability, Nine Established, Missed: .1111 * .6 = .06666 * 15 = $0.9999

Result 9, Ten Established

Probability: 3/36 (8.3333%)

Lay Bet: -$40

Field: + $5

Net (w/o DP Resolution): -$35

DP Win: .6667 * $10 = $6.667

DP Loss: .3333 * 10 = -$3.333

Probability: Ten Established, Made .08333 * .3333 = .02777 * -$45 = -$1.2498

Probability: Ten Established, Seven-Out .08333 * .6667 = .05556 * -$25 = -$1.3889

Result 10, Yo' Eleven

Probability: 2/36 (5.5556%)

Lay Bet: Picked Up

Field: +$5

Don't Pass: -$10

Net Win: -$5

Expected Win: -$5 * .05556 = -$0.2778

Result 11, Midnight

Probability: 1/36 (2.7778%)

Lay Bet: Picked Up

Field: +$15

Don't Pass: +$0

Net Win: $15

Expected Win: $15 * .027778 = $0.41667

Okay, now we have all of our probabilities and expected values for each possible result, so let's add them up

Probability---Expected Value of Result

.027778---$0.5556
.05556---$0.8334
.0277778---($1.2498)
.05556---($1.3889)
.04444---($0.6666)
.06666---$0.3333
.06313---($0.94695)
.07577---$0.37884
.1667---$3.8341
.06313---($0.94695)
.07577---$0.37884
.04444---($0.2222)
.06666---$0.9999
0.2777---($1.2498)
0.5556---($1.3889)
0.5556---($0.27778)
.027778---$0.41667

TOTALS

1.00005 (Rounding)---($0.60723)

Expected Value

Okay, so you are exposing either $95 or $97 per Come Out Roll, not sure how that should be looked at, with an Expected Loss of $0.60723:

Each individual Lay Bet, however, is only going to be resolved 9/36 Come-Out Rolls, and it is going to be picked up or flatly unresolved (Snake Eyes, Acey-Deucey, Yo', Midnight) 27/36 Come-Out Rolls.

You are getting 19:40 on a win, so your Lay Bet has a House Edge of .0227 per resolved, you will resolve both by winning 6/36 times, so $38 * 6/36 = 6.3333 and you will resolve either one or the other for -$40 6/36 times for -40 * 6/36 = -6.6667 for an EV of -$0.3334 per Come Out Roll.

Your Field Bet comes with a House Edge of .027778 at Mission Casino, and you are exposing $5 there, so that is 5 * .027778 = -$.13889 per CO.

Your Don't Pass comes with a House Edge of .0136, and you are exposing $10 there, so that is 10 * .0136 = -$0.136 per CO.

This is for a total of -$0.60829, EV per set of bets, which is probably close enough to my above figure to attribute to rounding. I would say that my above figure is probably a little bit closer, perhaps someone can verify.

Simulation forthcoming...

EDIT: No simulation, it's not going to do it right. It keeps returning ridiculous House Edges.

Quote: wrighj03

When a seven rolls on the come out you only lose the don't pass but get paid four and 10.
The field bets pays when don't pass pushes.

But, I posted it in the math section because I'd like to learn how to calculate the odds.
If the table rolls say 76 times and I'm only betting 25% of the time.

The odds should change because a variable change.
If a variable changes the end result has to change.

Also

The odds of the bets do not change.
What does change is the total expected value (EV) of one bet and many bets.
The payoffs and probabilities determine the odds.
https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/appendix/1/
for EV per bet and per roll look here:
https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/appendix/2/

example:
The Yo 11 pays 15 to 1 at many casinos.
It should pay 17 to 1 if the casino made it a fair bet. right?
2 ways to win and 34 ways to lose
US odds: 34 to 2 or 17 to 1 against the event being successful.

That 15 to 1 payout is fixed. The house edge is also fixed.
it never changes on one bet made.
You make a $1 bet and should walk away on a win with 17+1=$18
But the casino short paid you.
You walked away on a win with only $16.
That $2 difference IS the house edge.
HE = 2/18 = 1/9 = 11.1%


The EV (and standard deviation) is different with different $s wagered on the bet.

Quote: wrighj03

1) Mathmatically, how many come outs results in crap, seven or point?

on the come out roll.
craps: 4 ways to roll a 2,3 or 12. prob = 4/36
seven: 6/36
Yo 11: 2/36
set a point: 24/36

Quote: wrighj03

And once point is established how many times is the point hit?

It depends on the point number
4&10: 3/9 (3 out of 9)
5&9: 4/10
6&8: 5/11
any point: 201/495 = 40.606%
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/questions-and-answers/gambling/3146-average-number-of-points-hit-per-shooter-in-craps/

Quote: wrighj03

What is the average number of rolls to a seven?

any 7 is just 6 rolls on average.
The prob of a 7 rolling an any one roll is 6/36 or 1/6
the average number of rolls to see a single event is 1/prob

Hope this helps out some
Good Luck

2 sim runs (1 million rolls each)
$22 inside working for 1 roll only after a point is established
Lay4 & Lay10 vig paid up front
$10 DP; no don't pass odds bet
$5 Field (3x pay)

2 sims (1 million rolls each)
Lay4 & Lay10 vig paid up front
$10 DP; no don't pass odds bet
$5 Field (3x pay)

Quote: 7craps

The odds of the bets do not change.
What does change is the total expected value (EV) of one bet and many bets.
The payoffs and probabilities determine the odds.
for EV per bet and per roll look here:

example:
The Yo 11 pays 15 to 1 at many casinos.
It should pay 17 to 1 if the casino made it a fair bet. right?
2 ways to win and 34 ways to lose
US odds: 34 to 2 or 17 to 1 against the event being successful.

That 15 to 1 payout is fixed. The house edge is also fixed.
it never changes on one bet made.
You make a $1 bet and should walk away on a win with 17+1=$18
But the casino short paid you.
You walked away on a win with only $16.
That $2 difference IS the house edge.
HE = 2/18 = 1/9 = 11.1%


The EV (and standard deviation) is different with different $s wagered on the bet.


on the come out roll.
craps: 4 ways to roll a 2,3 or 12. prob = 4/36
seven: 6/36
Yo 11: 2/36
set a point: 24/36
It depends on the point number
4&10: 3/9 (3 out of 9)
5&9: 4/10
6&8: 5/11
any point: 201/495 = 40.606%

any 7 is just 6 rolls on average.
The prob of a 7 rolling an any one roll is 6/36 or 1/6
the average number of rolls to see a single event is 1/prob

Hope this helps out some
Good Luck

2 sim runs (1 million rolls each)
$22 inside working for 1 roll only after a point is established
Lay4 & Lay10 vig paid up front
$10 DP; no don't pass odds bet
$5 Field (3x pay)

show me

2 sims (1 million rolls each)
Lay4 & Lay10 vig paid up front
$10 DP; no don't pass odds bet
$5 Field (3x pay)

show me2

And, I wanted to thank you and mission 146 this exactly what I was looking for.
I use standard deviation in stock and option trading, but what is ev?
Can you post a formula I can use to plug in different wagers for the inside 22?
Thank you