Why are we "losing" when we play negative expectation games?

Quote: Face

Don’t think in terms of just you. You are just a piece of a larger body, “the patron”, which is what the casino plays against. For every “you” that wins $49, there’s a counterpart “you” that loses $50. If you win 10x’s for $490, there’s bizarro you that loses $500. The casino made $10 off of YOU.

I’ve gambled maybe 10-15 times in my life. Not once have I ever left the casino a loser. Somewhere there’s a bizarro me that’s been 10-15 times and never left a winner. Combine us together, and I’m the one keeping the lights on in the joint.

If I hire you to come film my fishing show for an hour at a rate of $500 an hour, and I get $500 worth of your work, and I pay you $490…

Yes, Alan, you lost even though you won.....get real....and it's hard to believe that you hit a 4 or 10......get real.....

Expected Value is not Actual -Realized- Value.

I find this thread borderline-comical.

I'm not trying to insult anyone's intelligence, but it's all statistics. You have an expectation for any bet or series of bets. Over a long enough timeline (the definition of "long" varies greatly depending on the game), you will lose at negative expectation games, as is the expectation. The longer you play the less likely it is you will be a winner. But with games with a small edge like craps or blackjack, it is incredibly easy to win in a short session, or even a series of short sessions (which is really just a medium session). But the casino will always win money in the long term, otherwise they would not be in business.

That's it. It's not that hard to understand.

" That's it. It's not that hard to understand."

Hey, we are having a serious discussion here. Please do not try and obfuscate the issue with facts.

Quote: AcesAndEights

I find this thread borderline-comical.

I'm not trying to insult anyone's intelligence, but it's all statistics. You have an expectation for any bet or series of bets. Over a long enough timeline (the definition of "long" varies greatly depending on the game), you will lose at negative expectation games, as is the expectation. The longer you play the less likely it is you will be a winner. But with games with a small edge like craps or blackjack, it is incredibly easy to win in a short session, or even a series of short sessions (which is really just a medium session). But the casino will always win money in the long term, otherwise they would not be in business.

That's it. It's not that hard to understand.

Thanks AcesAndEights for putting up with the statically challenged......yes, the casinos always win, long run, short run, semi-medium run, long short run, short long run.......what I find to be comical is the crowd that lurks waiting to beat down anybody with their slide rules that dare throw an idea that tries to buck the -EV. If nobody can win what is the point of the forum other than to bitch, complain, reveal where free lobsters can be had, comps or ferret out a situation where the gambler has a .000435 advantage over the house?

I'll say one thing, when the table is so hot the Suits show up to view what's going on, it doesnt seem to be the case that they plan to shrug it off as "actually we were winning 'cuz of the Vig."

Quote: odiousgambit

I'll say one thing, when the table is so hot the Suits show up to view what's going on, it doesnt seem to be the case that they plan to shrug it off as "actually we were winning 'cuz of the Vig."

Even if the table is hot the house is still winning (-EV)......suits come over to humor the gamblers.....maybe see some bouncing boobs......a pseudo concern taught the first day in STC (Suit Training Class).