Joined: Mar 5, 2011
  • Threads: 19
  • Posts: 289
October 25th, 2012 at 3:06:41 PM permalink
The only way for you to know in my opinion is to start keeping a trading diary. I trade off off point and figure patterns and they all have specific probabilities.... I think to know your probabilities you need to know a few things:

1. The reason you made the you initiate the trade by going long or short ( sorry I dont trade forex..only equities, options and index options so i dont know how you "enter" the market with your trades). I would analyze long and short trades separately.
2. was it based on a pattern or a range, an indicator/oscillator.... If so define it.
3. Are the trades in the same product, if not look at them separately
5. did you have rules on the trade... are your losses always "stop outs" or do you sometimes close the trade before a stop?
6. On winning trades... only count wins if your objective on the trade was primarily met... for example if you think the USD/JPY offers 2% upside with only 1% downside but you took a small profit on a 10bps move I dont really count that as one in the win column.

Its work to analyze this and I do it constantly on spreadsheets but once you know where your greatest strength and weakness are you can gain a lot of confidence and learn to manage your impulses that lead to bad trades and situations where you should have been more ballsy too.
I think you will find you trade a particular product and set up better than other... that's the probability you want to nail down.
when man determined to destroy himself he picked the was of shall and finding only why smashed it into because." E.E. Cummings

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