September 23rd, 2012 at 5:16:47 AM
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What are the odds of hitting tens full of nines or better and getting beat by a better hand in Texas Hold 'em? Both hole cards must play in both hands. I play in a game that has a bad beat structured this way, and I'm just wondering how often it can be expected to be hit. I could not find this information anywhere else, and I don't know how to do the math, so I appreciate anyone's help. Thanks!
September 23rd, 2012 at 5:42:57 PM
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The Wizard has a page on bad beat jackpots you can check. According to that, the odds of it hitting at jacks full or better are 0.00015708 (that's seeing it at a full table; being the loser is a tenth that), or about 1 in 6366, and realistically, it's probably lower than even that due to the chance of not making the river.
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
September 23rd, 2012 at 11:48:23 PM
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Thanks for the response! I did view the page on bad beat jackpots, but I think those odds are for a full house getting beat by quads or better. The game I play in allows full house beat by full house to qualify, as long as the losing hand is at least tens full of nines. I know any odds I might be able to find will be a little off, because, like you said, sometimes you will not see all the cards and whatnot. But I just want to know the odds of this scenario occurring at a full table when nobody folds and all hands go to showdown. Can you think of anywhere else I could find this out? Thanks again for your help!