The REAL Expected Loss
Second, there's also the psychological aspect of gambling. Some people feel better making bad decisions on blackjack. And of course all the superstitions.
Then there's the speed of a game and highly unlikely payouts that should probably be considered. For several sessions once, I would play simply 20 hands of pai gow poker, then play ten shooters on craps. With about ten different sessions I had a loss on every single one of pai gow. Over 100 shooters on craps, I was actually ahead. Regardless of this difference I still calculated that my loss/hr would be MORE on Pai Gow poker, despite playing twice as much money on craps. Even when both games can be considerably slow, from the time making a bet to the time it's resolved.
So the expected speed of the game, combined with number of decisions/hr, combined with not getting huge payouts, combined with tips, a persons expected loss will probably be considerably more. If you recalculated house edge to not include the top three payouts on pai gow poker (since casual gamblers will likely never hit those) and use that as an estimation, you'll have a better idea of what you're losing. You could probably also include the top two payouts on Ultimate Texas Hold Em and Mississippi Stud. When considering these, games that at once seemed pretty good really aren't if you're looking at cost per hour to play. Blackjack, with the lowest house edge could end up being comparable to other slower games because the pace is usually pretty fast at BJ.
Quote: ewjones080Firstly, I believe players shouldn't just be thinking about the house edge.
Boy, do you give players a lot of credit. Try asking the
average player in any game what the HE is for that
game. I can guarantee he won't know. In all liklihood
he'll look at you like you have dog crap stuck on your
shoe. Ask the dealer, most of them won't know either.
They know there's an edge, they have no idea what
it is. Ask the pit, there's a 50/50 chance they'll know,
but thats only because they've been asked before.
Most people in a casino, players and casino workers,
have very little knowlege of the games they play
and deal. I've been asking questions for decades
and know this for a fact.
Quote: ewjones080
So the expected speed of the game, combined with number of decisions/hr, combined with not getting huge payouts, combined with tips, a persons expected loss will probably be considerably more. If you recalculated house edge to not include the top three payouts on pai gow poker (since casual gamblers will likely never hit those) and use that as an estimation, you'll have a better idea of what you're losing. You could probably also include the top two payouts on Ultimate Texas Hold Em and Mississippi Stud. When considering these, games that at once seemed pretty good really aren't if you're looking at cost per hour to play. Blackjack, with the lowest house edge could end up being comparable to other slower games because the pace is usually pretty fast at BJ.
I was in AZ last month, and no one was sitting at the Let It Ride table. I told the dealer I didn't want to play an empty table since I'd be getting too many hands and would lose too rapidly and he told me he'd deal very slowly. Sure enough, as soon as I sat down other players came to play--nobody likes to play that game at an empty table!
And, within 5 hands I picked up a full house. Then I was dealt a straight flush with a Pair Plus bet out and drew to a straight, so I didn't lose at all! But decisions per hour makes a difference in the game I choose to play.
Quote: FarFromVegas-nobody likes to play that game at an empty table!
.
Nobody likes to play any game alone, mostly. Go to
Macau and 600 bac tables will have dealers and 200
of those tables will be empty. Because nobody likes
to play bac alone; how will they know where to bet?
Some people like playing BJ alone, but thats only
under special circumstances.
Quote: EvenBobNobody likes to play any game alone, mostly. Go to
Macau and 600 bac tables will have dealers and 200
of those tables will be empty. Because nobody likes
to play bac alone; how will they know where to bet?
Some people like playing BJ alone, but thats only
under special circumstances.
The Fortune Pai Gow Poker tables had solo players, which is kinda stupid envy-bonuswise, but it was happening. I didn't notice any baccarat there--don't know if they even offer it. The blackjack tables were packed but I don't play it so I didn't notice if it was 3-2 or 6-5.
Quote: EvenBobBoy, do you give players a lot of credit. Try asking the
average player in any game what the HE is for that
game. I can guarantee he won't know. In all liklihood
he'll look at you like you have dog crap stuck on your
shoe. Ask the dealer, most of them won't know either.
They know there's an edge, they have no idea what
it is. Ask the pit, there's a 50/50 chance they'll know,
but thats only because they've been asked before.
Most people in a casino, players and casino workers,
have very little knowlege of the games they play
and deal. I've been asking questions for decades
and know this for a fact.
You're absolutely right. I was referring to savvy players. Savvy players that know HE will play the games based on that, but might not consider time played. A guy might decide to play BJ with great rules for $30 a hand. He could take that and do $10 with double odds on craps and lose considerably less in the long run, despite roughly the same edge. But then again, maybe there's players that want to win a lot in a hurry, and that will happen more than craps if all your doing is the pass line.
And yes, I've asked dealers what house edge is before and usually they have no clue, or even how to calculate it. A lot don't even know basic strategy for BJ (granted I haven't memorized either). On a dead craps game, the girl at stick was trying to tell me the edge in the field is 1/19, and I insisted it was 1/18 (both 2, 12 double) but she kept trying to convince me it was 1/19. I just quite talking, because I didn't even know how she was coming up with that number, and didn't want to explain it to her.
There are other dealers, when it comes to craps that think too much about Ways To Win v. Ways To Lose. Some are like, okay 16 ways to hit and 20 ways to lose, uuuhhh.. HE is a lot.. They don't think in terms of units. 36 in 34 out, House keeps 2. They always forget about counting the original wager as money that was won back. One guy who's now a Dual Rate I really respect as a dealer, especially craps. He's quick and efficient, can come up with weird or complex payouts in half a second, and not only that, he's read some books and knows a lot of the house edges. But one night, some guy asked "Which hardway should I play." I (on stick) told him 6 or 8, the dual rate (on box)was like 4 or 10. Can't remember what the guy played, but the box and I were chatting about it a bit as the roll continued, he was trying to tell me the 4/10 was better than the 6/8. I even spouted off the exact numbers, and he was convinced he had it right. He's obviously a smart guy and knows he's smart and usually has quite the stench of arrogance. I didn't really argue with him, because I didn't want to make him look like a fool, especially on a live game.
my mouth shut is for the best. There's no
point in letting them know you are better
informed than they are. Never wise up a
chump, there's nothing in it for you.
