Snoobert
Snoobert
Joined: Jun 24, 2012
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June 24th, 2012 at 1:21:47 PM permalink
So Disneyland has had Star Tours 2 at Disneyland for over a year now. I have been on the attraction over 30 times and I have yet to see the Princess Leia scene.

For those that don't know, Star tours 2 contains 4 scenes and each scene randomly pulls from a pool of 2 or 3 scenes.

Opening: Vader or Stormtrooper
Destination 1: Hoth, Tatooine, or Kashyyyk
Transmission: Ackbar, Leia, or Yoda
Destination 2: Coruscant, Naboo, or Geonosis.

So my questions are: what is the probability that I would not see Leia after 30 attempts? (1/3 chance to see her per attempt)
How many times would I have to ride the attraction before I could have a 99.99% confidence I would see that scene?
Am I just unlucky?
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
Joined: Mar 11, 2010
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June 24th, 2012 at 1:28:04 PM permalink
Your odds against seeing Leia are about 1:260,000 (.66^30) if the scenes are independent and evenly weighted. I think you're passed the 99.99% stage, which you crossed between the 22nd and 23rd visits.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
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June 25th, 2012 at 10:23:31 AM permalink
Quote: Snoobert

So Disneyland has had Star Tours 2 at Disneyland for over a year now. I have been on the attraction over 30 times and I have yet to see the Princess Leia scene.

For those that don't know, Star tours 2 contains 4 scenes and each scene randomly pulls from a pool of 2 or 3 scenes.

Opening: Vader or Stormtrooper
Destination 1: Hoth, Tatooine, or Kashyyyk
Transmission: Ackbar, Leia, or Yoda
Destination 2: Coruscant, Naboo, or Geonosis.

So my questions are: what is the probability that I would not see Leia after 30 attempts? (1/3 chance to see her per attempt)
How many times would I have to ride the attraction before I could have a 99.99% confidence I would see that scene?
Am I just unlucky?



According to this article in the Orange County Register, there are supposed to be 54 different combinations, so perhaps Leia will be waiting in the almost half of the possible combos you haven't experienced yet.

Also, do you ride the same unit each time? Perhaps the rotation of possible scenes is distributed amongst the ride units too.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
slyther
slyther
Joined: Feb 1, 2010
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June 25th, 2012 at 1:19:50 PM permalink
The computer selects the scenes at random every time. The particular ride unit does not matter.

Star Tours 2.0 is excellent. The only problem is that the ride exit dumps you into the Star Traders store, which is far too small to handle the actual shoppers mixing with everyone exiting the ride.
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
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June 25th, 2012 at 1:55:07 PM permalink
Quote: slyther

The computer selects the scenes at random every time. The particular ride unit does not matter.



If so, how do you explain the OP's experience with the missing Leia? Do you have any evidence that "full random" is the actual condition on each unit?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
cardshark
cardshark
Joined: Nov 30, 2009
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June 25th, 2012 at 2:08:37 PM permalink
Quote: rdw4potus

Your odds against seeing Leia are about 1:260,000 (.66^30) if the scenes are independent and evenly weighted. I think you're passed the 99.99% stage, which you crossed between the 22nd and 23rd visits.



Be careful with your rounding! The actual odds are (2/3)^30 which is 1 in 191,751.
buzzpaff
buzzpaff
Joined: Mar 8, 2011
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June 25th, 2012 at 2:11:26 PM permalink
I actually got 1 in 191,750.66 Now who is rounding up ??
ewjones080
ewjones080
Joined: Feb 22, 2012
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June 25th, 2012 at 5:32:00 PM permalink
Sounds pretty unlucky. If it weren't random, and the Leia scene is selected, say, 20%, then the chance of this would be ~.001. Even at 5% your still talking ~.21

I don't get this ride though. Is it like a movie? Is it like one of those things were the seats move around, like a stationary thrill ride?
Nareed
Nareed
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June 25th, 2012 at 5:36:46 PM permalink
Quote: ewjones080

I don't get this ride though. Is it like a movie? Is it like one of those things were the seats move around, like a stationary thrill ride?



The last. The technical term is motion simulator.

They're very good, though they pale a little once you try a centrifuge ride like EPCOT's Mission Space (awful name, great ride)
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
slyther
slyther
Joined: Feb 1, 2010
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June 26th, 2012 at 11:09:47 AM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

If so, how do you explain the OP's experience with the missing Leia? Do you have any evidence that "full random" is the actual condition on each unit?



Every 'fan site' and media review has said it is random.

You aren't allowed to select what unit you ride in.

Here's the closest documentation I could find from an actual Disney site

"Technology played a crucial part in all the renovations, but Tom points out some of the most significant advances, starting with the branching storyline. "For the very first time, we utilized technology that selects one of 54 different story combinations so each ride's really a surprise. Guests never know where they'll go. We created this approach to keep it fresh for our enormous fan base. It's a huge change from the original show.""

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