Star Tours 2 at Disneyland question
For those that don't know, Star tours 2 contains 4 scenes and each scene randomly pulls from a pool of 2 or 3 scenes.
Opening: Vader or Stormtrooper
Destination 1: Hoth, Tatooine, or Kashyyyk
Transmission: Ackbar, Leia, or Yoda
Destination 2: Coruscant, Naboo, or Geonosis.
So my questions are: what is the probability that I would not see Leia after 30 attempts? (1/3 chance to see her per attempt)
How many times would I have to ride the attraction before I could have a 99.99% confidence I would see that scene?
Am I just unlucky?
Quote: SnoobertSo Disneyland has had Star Tours 2 at Disneyland for over a year now. I have been on the attraction over 30 times and I have yet to see the Princess Leia scene.
For those that don't know, Star tours 2 contains 4 scenes and each scene randomly pulls from a pool of 2 or 3 scenes.
Opening: Vader or Stormtrooper
Destination 1: Hoth, Tatooine, or Kashyyyk
Transmission: Ackbar, Leia, or Yoda
Destination 2: Coruscant, Naboo, or Geonosis.
So my questions are: what is the probability that I would not see Leia after 30 attempts? (1/3 chance to see her per attempt)
How many times would I have to ride the attraction before I could have a 99.99% confidence I would see that scene?
Am I just unlucky?
According to this article in the Orange County Register, there are supposed to be 54 different combinations, so perhaps Leia will be waiting in the almost half of the possible combos you haven't experienced yet.
Also, do you ride the same unit each time? Perhaps the rotation of possible scenes is distributed amongst the ride units too.
Star Tours 2.0 is excellent. The only problem is that the ride exit dumps you into the Star Traders store, which is far too small to handle the actual shoppers mixing with everyone exiting the ride.
Quote: slytherThe computer selects the scenes at random every time. The particular ride unit does not matter.
If so, how do you explain the OP's experience with the missing Leia? Do you have any evidence that "full random" is the actual condition on each unit?
Quote: rdw4potusYour odds against seeing Leia are about 1:260,000 (.66^30) if the scenes are independent and evenly weighted. I think you're passed the 99.99% stage, which you crossed between the 22nd and 23rd visits.
Be careful with your rounding! The actual odds are (2/3)^30 which is 1 in 191,751.
I don't get this ride though. Is it like a movie? Is it like one of those things were the seats move around, like a stationary thrill ride?
Quote: ewjones080I don't get this ride though. Is it like a movie? Is it like one of those things were the seats move around, like a stationary thrill ride?
The last. The technical term is motion simulator.
They're very good, though they pale a little once you try a centrifuge ride like EPCOT's Mission Space (awful name, great ride)
Quote: AyecarumbaIf so, how do you explain the OP's experience with the missing Leia? Do you have any evidence that "full random" is the actual condition on each unit?
Every 'fan site' and media review has said it is random.
You aren't allowed to select what unit you ride in.
Here's the closest documentation I could find from an actual Disney site
"Technology played a crucial part in all the renovations, but Tom points out some of the most significant advances, starting with the branching storyline. "For the very first time, we utilized technology that selects one of 54 different story combinations so each ride's really a surprise. Guests never know where they'll go. We created this approach to keep it fresh for our enormous fan base. It's a huge change from the original show.""
Quote: slytherEvery 'fan site' and media review has said it is random.
You aren't allowed to select what unit you ride in.
Here's the closest documentation I could find from an actual Disney site
"Technology played a crucial part in all the renovations, but Tom points out some of the most significant advances, starting with the branching storyline. "For the very first time, we utilized technology that selects one of 54 different story combinations so each ride's really a surprise. Guests never know where they'll go. We created this approach to keep it fresh for our enormous fan base. It's a huge change from the original show.""
Thanks for the follow up slyther. I did a quick google search and turned up this unscientific poll. Note some Leia combos out of 123 responses got zero hits. The comments from multiple riders indicate that there is not as much variance as expected, with some folks getting full repeats.
Maybe Carrie Fisher's contract requires her to get paid a residual for every "showing", so they don't play it too much.
Darth Vader - Tatooine - (Yoda) - Death Star
Stormtroopers - Kashyyk - (Yoda) - Death Star
Darth Vader - Tatooine - (Leia) - Death Star
Quote: slytherFWIW here is what I got on my 3 rides on my trip to Disneyland last December (Trip Report here)
Darth Vader - Tatooine - (Yoda) - Death Star
Stormtroopers - Kashyyk - (Yoda) - Death Star
Darth Vader - Tatooine - (Leia) - Death Star
We were there the same time--21st-24th! And I rode it 3 times as well, but I didn't keep track of the characters or settings. I only remember that on my second ride, I was chosen as the rebel spy, which amused my kids.
