Nareed's Laws of Las Vegas (Tourist Edition)
1) Concerning development, especially on the Strip, post 2007: Whatever happens, nothing happens (Shamelessly taken from Asimov's Laws of Hollywood).
2) Sucker bets were not devised by suckers.
3) The time you spend in line to get cheaper show tickets is directly proportional to the square of the money saved (at least).
4) You ommit tipping the dealer at your own risk (especially in craps).
5) Ignore the Wizard's Commandments at your own peril
6) Buildings and/or landmarks in Vegas do NOT get farther away the more you walk towards them, but it sure seems that way. Even so, your journey won't be shorter if you walk backwards.
7) The best way to enjoy a Vegas buffet is to lower your expectations (The IP exception: no lowering of expectations will work for the Emperor's Buffet; it needs to improve considerably before it can be classified as "bad").
8) There's a reason why slot machines are called one-armed bandits (of course since most don't have levers anymore, the reason no longer is obvious. But calling them plain "bandits" is insipid and uninspired). This reason does not necessarily apply to VP machines with good paytables.
9) Pay attention at all times while gambling. It's better to prevent a controversy than to win one.
10) Sucker bets were not devised by suckers (It won't hurt to repeat it, and I was one law short).
Bonus Law: "System" is not equivalent to "Strategy."
Also, exactly how bad is the buffet at the IP? Am I going to regret my promise to eat a full meal there when I take on the 7-in-24-hour buffet challenge in October?
Quote: rdw4potusI like that there is a repeated law and a bonus law:-)
Think of it as fun with the Law of Identity (A is A) :P
Quote:Also, exactly how bad is the buffet at the IP? Am I going to regret my promise to eat a full meal there when I take on the 7-in-24-hour buffet challenge in October?
I mostly go by hearsay, which is not good precedent. Anyway, I only had breakfast there. If you stick, as I did, to the omelette station and hot cereals, you'll be fine (the coffee is standard buffet coffee: drinkable and sufficiently caffeinated, but not good).
The food quality isn't bad, it just wasn't well prepared or well served. This is a failing at most buffets, even the better ones. The bacon, for example, was either limp or rock hard. Compared to the Rio where it ran the full spectrum from limp to crispy, or the Flamingo where it was motly crispy.
11) Do not bet even a penny without getting a player card first. It won't hurt and it might help.
12) There's no such thing as luck.
14) Despite law 12, it's good manners to wish good luck to other players. It's especially good manners to wish the dealer good luck when you place a bet for him.
15) Don't ever play for comps.
16) The Mirage has a fountain "volcano," the Bellagio has the world famous dancing fountains, the Wynn has the lake of dreams and pool parties. From these observations we can conclude Steve Wynn is composed mostly of hydrophilic compounds.
When I'm talking about gambling at a bar, everyone around me claims to be a successful card counter. When I'm sitting at a blackjack table in Vegas, everyone around me stands on a 13 against a dealer's face card.
Quote: PapaChubbyNot sure if this is a law, or just an observation:
It's an observation.
We can put it in the form of a law thus: Anyone can talk card counting. Real card counters don't.
Or maybe: the number of real card counter is inversley proportional to the cube of the people who claim to be card counters (ie RCC=1/CCC^3 where RCC are real card coutners and CCC are those who claim to be card counters). At that a mere cube could be on the low end, mroe likely the 5th power, but that's not as elegant as saying "the cube."
Quote: Nareed
12) There's no such thing as luck.
14)
LOL! Nice one:-)
Quote: rdw4potusLOL! Nice one:-)
Thank you.
I wondered if anyone would pick it up.
I completely missed it.Quote: NareedThank you.
I wondered if anyone would pick it up.
On the other hand, I learned first hand about law #6 a few years ago, when I decided to walk from the Stratosphere to Circus Circus. With the wife. In the mid-afternoon. In August.
It was only about an inch on the map....
Quote: DJTeddyBearOn the other hand, I learned first hand about law #6 a few years ago, when I decided to walk from the Stratosphere to Circus Circus. With the wife. In the mid-afternoon. In August.
Did you try to walk backwards?
I mean, theory clearly indicates it won't be any faster, that's not the point. But I'm curious how the Las Vegas Distance Perception Distortion Effect works when walking away from something. Does it recede more quickly than it would elsewhere?
Quote:It was only about an inch on the map....
Without knowing the scale of the map, we won't ever know how big a folly that was.
Anwyay, first trip to vegas I stayed at the Sahara. Walking to the Stratosphere seemed a simple, easy thing to do. Fortunately I first took the Monorail to the center Strip and discovered how real the LVDPDE is. More so because from the center of the Strip the Stratosphere still seems to be no more than two blocks away.
That's also when I discovered the Monorail Distance Fallacy, but that's another subject.
No.Quote: NareedDid you try to walk backwards?
I was too busy listening to the wife bitch about how the buildings were getting further away, and agreeing with her, to think of something as nutty as that.
Quote: DJTeddyBearIt was only about an inch on the map....
I think the clearest example of this effect is to look at the Mirage and TI signs from somewhere along about Excalibur. It appears that it should be a reasonable ten-minute or so walk.
I usually tell folks that it is a two-mile walk up the main part of the strip. And a five and a half mile walk back.
There is nothing more deserving of being called a "one armed bandit" than the poker machines. Pay tables really mean beans to 100% of all players, even those who say they're advantage players. We'll play them because THEY'RE THERE. End of story. Even so, someone who vows to play only +EV machines that comes to town for 4 days is almost assuredly guaranteed to be victimized by the one-armed bandits unless at least one royal is hit.
There's no such thing as luck? WTF kind of misguided poop is that? That's all there is in gambling. You play your best game, then you hope for the right card or cards to draw or flop; you hope for your team to win; you hope that your horse runs the best today; you hope your numbers come up in keno.
Quote: DJTeddyBearNo.
I was too busy listening to the wife bitch about how the buildings were getting further away, and agreeing with her, to think of something as nutty as that.
Well, I admit walking backwards is unusual. I've never done it because it's a great way to inadvertently walk into traffic. You're also likely to back into something hard.
18) Be wary of offering solicited advice. If you do, add disclaimers, and remind the person asking for advice that the best bets are those least likely to lose.
19) You're not responsible of correcting a dealer error in your favor. You may do so, and it may even be the honest thing to do, but ultimately it's your choice.
20) Do not EVER correct a dealer's mistake in favor of another player. You'll infuriate the player, and you won't get more than a nod from the casino (if that much). This law is null if you're attracted to the dealer and keep your brains and your gametes in the same body part.
21) You're responsible for correcting dealer errors against you, but not against other players. Exception if the other player is your spouse, friend or relative.
Quote: Nareed
20) ...This law is null if you're attracted to the dealer and keep your brains and your gametes in the same body part.
21) You're responsible for correcting dealer errors against you, but not against other players. Exception if the other player is your spouse, friend or relative.
Can the second clause of 20 apply if I'm attracted to another player in 21?
Quote: rdw4potusCan the second clause of 20 apply if I'm attracted to another player in 21?
It might be... provided you keep your brains and gametes in the same body part.
Quote: NareedIt might be... provided you keep your brains and gametes in the same body part.
That's not always the case, but I find that my brain storage location shifts lower as my alcohol consumption increases.
Quote: JerryLoganThere's no such thing as luck?
Can you provide evidence of luck's existence? A photograph, perhaps? If not, a study determining the effect of luck on any kind of event?
Quote:You play your best game, then you hope for the right card or cards to draw or flop; you hope for your team to win; you hope that your horse runs the best today; you hope your numbers come up in keno.
Yes, naturally. But how much effect does all that hoping have on the actual results?
If the answer is none, then there's no such thing as luck.
22) The slowest means of transportation is the one you're on. Exceptions from time to time on foot.
23) The most congested route is the one you're on.
(the two laws above are borrowed from Nareed's Laws of Traffic (Universal Edition)).
24) Sucker bets were not devised by suckers (still a few short)
25) The House Advantage is always zero when you don't play.
26) Don't get attached to anything. Everything in Las Vegas is ultimately ephemeral.
Quote: DJTeddyBearwhen I decided to walk from the Stratosphere to Circus Circus. With the wife. In the mid-afternoon. In August.....
OMG! You can't be serious. I hate walking to the valet parking area at MGM in the summer, let aone anywhere else. I spend as close to 0% of my time outdoors as possible in July-August in Vegas, its like a pizza oven out there. Shudder.... I rent a car in Vegas, I have never walked anywhere. Its not a productive use of my time. And it tires you out. I marvel at the people walking the Strip at 3pm in July. I gawk at them from my air conditioned rental. I don't get it..
Looking forward, as potential, quantitative value doesn't exist, the value is personal and intangible, a personal belief in the potential of the session. So, luck as a thing of monetary value, no. Luck as a thing of emotional value... well, it's kind of why we gamble, I think.
As a resolved event, luck's relationship to odds and $$ wagered is reasonably constant; if you are a $10 bettor, and you drop $100 on 12 and it hits... damn, that was REALLY lucky. If you are a $100 bettor, and you put $5 on pass and it hits, there's not a lot to say. If you hit a middling payout on a penny slot, say $100 on a $2 wager, that's OK. If you get a $1000 spin on a $1 WOF, that's AWESOME. If you do it twice in a session, that's pretty damn lucky! If you hit the progressive, then you are one lucky son of a... gun.
Quote: NareedWork in progress still:
11) Do not bet even a penny without getting a player card first. It won't hurt and it might help.
12) There's no such thing as luck.
14) Despite law 12, it's good manners to wish good luck to other players. It's especially good manners to wish the dealer good luck when you place a bet for him.
15) Don't ever play for comps.
16) The Mirage has a fountain "volcano," the Bellagio has the world famous dancing fountains, the Wynn has the lake of dreams and pool parties. From these observations we can conclude Steve Wynn is composed mostly of hydrophilic compounds.
Love the list so far. I'll get to experience the August heat next month. Haven't been to Vegas when it's hot, but I'm betting it's probably pretty close to the 110-degree days we get in san antonio.
I have to disagree on #12 though. I'd define "good luck" as a short-term positive swing in variance in a long-term negative expectation game.
From Priceton's WordNet
Quote:S: (adj) lucky (occurring by chance) "a lucky escape"; "a lucky guess"
S: (adj) lucky (having or bringing good fortune) "my lucky day"; "a lucky man"
S: (adj) golden, favorable, favourable, lucky, prosperous (presaging or likely to bring good luck) "a favorable time to ask for a raise"; "lucky stars"; "a prosperous moment to make a decision"
Positive short-term swing in variance = having good fortune that occurred by chance. Hence, it was lucky.
Yes I can. But you gotta remember: It was only about an inch on the map!Quote: EvenBobOMG! You can't be serious.Quote: DJTeddyBear...I decided to walk from the Stratosphere to Circus Circus. With the wife. In the mid-afternoon. In August.....
The other part of the story is, half way there, I told her we'd take a cab from Circus Circus to the next casino - Slots-O-Fun!
On the subject of luck: It absolutely exists.
Unfortunately, it exists in a fairly equal ratio of good luck and bad luck.
Quote: DJTeddyBearOn the subject of luck: It absolutely exists.
Luck is just a word people use when they don't understand variance. The more you know about variance, the more 'luck' will disappear from your vocabulary.
Quote: EvenBobLuck is just a word people use when they don't understand variance. The more you know about variance, the more 'luck' will disappear from your vocabulary.
That total nonsense. Some people try to sound smart by claiming that all the time in vp and they look all the dumber for it. It's like a person with a dry sense of humor along with a matching boring personality trying to convince someone with a life, that nothing but his view has any meaning. Ask every powerball winner if it was variance or good luck that made them wealthy. Then ask every vp player who hits a RF if they enjoyed the variance of the moment or the good fortune.
Quote: EvenBobLuck is just a word people use when they don't understand variance. The more you know about variance, the more 'luck' will disappear from your vocabulary.
Disagree completely. You are confusing completely different things. Luck is what happens when results do not agree with odds or variance. If you never won a single wager for the rest of your life... try describing that without using the word luck.
Quote: JerryLoganThat total nonsense. Some people try to sound smart by claiming that all the time in vp and they look all the dumber for it. It's like a person with a dry sense of humor along with a matching boring personality trying to convince someone with a life, that nothing but his view has any meaning. Ask every powerball winner if it was variance or good luck that made them wealthy. Then ask every vp player who hits a RF if they enjoyed the variance of the moment or the good fortune.
Luck is a meaningless word. One persons bad luck is another persons good luck. Its just a word that covers everything you don't understand. I lost a 20$ bill and somebody finds it. Bad luck for me, good luck for them? Its neither.
If I totally understand how variance works in the game I play, the word luck never even occurrs to me. How can luck even exist? Its just another superstition.
Quote: MoscaDisagree completely. You are confusing completely different things. Luck is what happens when results do not agree with odds or variance. If you never won a single wager for the rest of your life... try describing that without using the word luck.
Technically, all results comply with variance. But that's exactly what luck is: short-term variance patterns.
In your example, "bad luck" would be the short-term negative variance that person experienced over the rest of his life.
That's not to say luck doesn't exist - it absolutely does, but it's a way to describe short-term variance. Having bad luck means you experienced negative short term variance.
Quote: EvenBobQuote: DJTeddyBearOn the subject of luck: It absolutely exists.
Luck is just a word people use when they don't understand variance. The more you know about variance, the more 'luck' will disappear from your vocabulary.
Seems like when you're talking about luck & variance, you're talking about the random combinations of good luck and bad luck.
But nice of you to take my comment out of context.
I'd like to remind everyone EXACTLY what I said on the subject:
Quote: DJTeddyBearOn the subject of luck: It absolutely exists.
Unfortunately, it exists in a fairly equal ratio of good luck and bad luck.
Quote: bluefireTechnically, all results comply with variance. But that's exactly what luck is: short-term variance patterns.
In your example, "bad luck" would be the short-term negative variance that person experienced over the rest of his life.
Exactly! Thats the term I had forgotten, luck is really short term negative or positive variance. Nothing mysterious about it at all.
Quote: dictionary.comLuck:
1. the force that seems to operate for good or ill in a person's life, as in shaping circumstances, events, or opportunities: With my luck I'll probably get pneumonia.
2. good fortune; advantage or success, considered as the result of chance: He had no luck finding work.
3. a combination of circumstances, events, etc., operating by chance to bring good or ill to a person: She's had nothing but bad luck all year.
4. some object on which good fortune is supposed to depend: This rabbit's foot is my luck.
There is very much a thing as luck.
And furthermore, none of this takes place on the pages of a book; it happens in life, in the world of experience, to people. Everyone is still ignoring or bypassing the emotional dimension of luck. The dice, the cards, the wheel, the circuitry are all without emotion. For those inanimate, there are only odds and variance. But for us, the players, the biological, thinking, FEELING creatures, experiencing "luck" is WHY WE DO THIS. There are easier ways to make a living. But the THRILL of good luck--! Nothing like it.
And the despair of bad luck. The feeling you have when you've blown your entire day's bankroll and it isn't even 2PM. Ugh. "Negative variance" doesn't much describe that feeling, not even a little bit.
"Luck" is inside you. It isn't the variance. It is the feeling you have, both in anticipation of the event and then for the resolution of the event. It describes potential, and attitude, and it also describes results. "Variance" is when it happens in a textbook. "Luck" is when it happens TO YOU.
Luck is a meaningless word because it covers everything. Its not a mysterious force that wanders aimlessly around, effecting people this way and that. Its a word that covers what we don't understand. The guy hit the tree because he was drunk. The wife went broke because he didn't buy life insurance. She lost the house because he hit a tree. Luck had nothing to do with anything.
Quote: MoscaThe world has probability, and it also has chaos. Chaos looks like probability, but it is still chaos, and the difference is luck.
And furthermore, none of this takes place on the pages of a book; it happens in life, in the world of experience, to people. Everyone is still ignoring or bypassing the emotional dimension of luck. The dice, the cards, the wheel, the circuitry are all without emotion. For those inanimate, there are only odds and variance. But for us, the players, the biological, thinking, FEELING creatures, experiencing "luck" is WHY WE DO THIS. There are easier ways to make a living. But the THRILL of good luck--! Nothing like it.
And the despair of bad luck. The feeling you have when you've blown your entire day's bankroll and it isn't even 2PM. Ugh. "Negative variance" doesn't much describe that feeling, not even a little bit.
"Luck" is inside you. It isn't the variance. It is the feeling you have, both in anticipation of the event and then for the resolution of the event. It describes potential, and attitude, and it also describes results. "Variance" is when it happens in a textbook. "Luck" is when it happens TO YOU.
When I use the word luck in everyday life, it could have emotion or it could be completely emotionless. Generally, I just use it to mean that something was perceived to have happened by chance: "I got lucky and found a decent parking spot" or "Luck was on his side when the ref missed that call". Both of those can be really emotionless statements, or they can have emotion behind them.
I don't think luck is an adjective describing emotion. It could give you an idea as to the emotion that person was experiencing based off of the context, but it doesn't always describe emotion.
In gambling, the reason it's exciting is because you have the opportunity to win something extremely valuable, or lose something extremely valuable: money. As a result, gambling is always going to have emotion attached to it. The emotion is more tied to the activity itself and is a function of luck (or short-term variance), but isn't in and of itself luck.
Quote: EvenBobA guy gets drunk and dies when he hits a tree on the way home. Bad luck for him. The ambulance driver who answers the call is having a slow night and gets paid by how many runs he has. Good luck for him. The dead guy had no life insurance, bad luck for his family. They have a huge garage sale just make ends meet, good luck for the buyers. The wife has to sell the house for much less than its worth because they can't live there now. Bad luck for her. The new owner got a bargain, good luck for him. And on and on.
Luck is a meaningless word because it covers everything. Its not a mysterious force that wanders aimlessly around, effecting people this way and that. Its a word that covers what we don't understand. The guy hit the tree because he was drunk. The wife went broke because he didn't buy life insurance. She lost the house because he hit a tree. Luck had nothing to do with anything.
I'm not sure "luck" is being used the way I'd use it - I certainly wouldn't say it was bad luck for a drunk driver to crash into a tree. That didn't happen by chance.
I think "luck" is appropriate for something like this:
Would you describe people born in North America as lucky? I consider North America to largely be the most desirable place to live. However, 92.11% of the population lives elsewhere. Therefore, anyone born into North America would have experienced good luck, as it was something positive that happened to them by seemingly random chance. Now, granted, you can break it down into specific parents causing the children to be born in that continent, etc, but there is a feeling of random chance given that you aren't in control.
Quote: MoscaYeah, and Webster's Dictionary and The Rime of the Ancient Mariner are both just arrangements of letters.
Letters that we've all negotiated agreed upon meanings to. There's nothing about the way the word luck is used in everyday life that always conveys excitement.
Luck creates emotion, but isn't emotion itself.
Of course it was chance, it wasn't planned and it certainly wasn't by choice.
Quote: EvenBobA guy gets drunk and dies when he hits a tree on the way home. Bad luck for him. The ambulance driver who answers the call is having a slow night and gets paid by how many runs he has. Good luck for him. The dead guy had no life insurance, bad luck for his family. They have a huge garage sale just make ends meet, good luck for the buyers. The wife has to sell the house for much less than its worth because they can't live there now. Bad luck for her. The new owner got a bargain, good luck for him. And on and on.
Luck is a meaningless word because it covers everything. Its not a mysterious force that wanders aimlessly around, effecting people this way and that. Its a word that covers what we don't understand. The guy hit the tree because he was drunk. The wife went broke because he didn't buy life insurance. She lost the house because he hit a tree. Luck had nothing to do with anything.
That's uneducated at best. "Health" applies to every person in either good or bad terms. Every issue you mentioned as well as the health issue are almost entirely understood.
I'd say you're not at the level you like you think you are. Looks like the majority understand that. Bad luck for you.
Quote: JerryLoganThat's uneducated at best. "Health" applies to every person in either good or bad terms. Every issue you mentioned as well as the health issue are almost entirely understood.
I'd say you're not at the level you like you think you are. Looks like the majority understand that. Bad luck for you.
You must be joking. A guy hitting a tree is considered 'unlucky' by almost everybody. Finding a bargain at a garage sale is the epitome of good luck, you beat evrybody else to it. Buying a house at great price is being in the right place at the right time, and what causes that? Luck, of course. Everytning in life that seems t be caused by mysterious forces is always labeled luck. Its mild in America. Go to places like Asia, luck is a damned religion there.
Quote: EvenBobBuying a house at great price is being in the right place at the right time, and what causes that? Luck, of course.
That's just what I mean when I say there's no such thing as luck. Nothing "caused" the royal you hit on VP, it's just how the cards were dealt.
Consider this. Every person is a unique mixture of genetic material inherited from both parents. Even though a set of parents has only a limited number of chromosome arrangements in their gametes, the results of reproduction vary enormously. In other words, you ressemble your siblings, but you are all distinct from each other. There are reasons for this which are not germane right now.
However, had your parents conceived a day later, you wouldn't exist. Had they not met, you wouldn't exist. Had your mother misscarried you, naturally you wouldn't exist. Had any of your grandparents not met, you wouldn't exist. Had your great-great-great-great-grandmother postponed sex for a few hours, you woulnd't exist. So every person is the result of a myriad coincidences stretching back literally thousands of years.
Do you realize just how unlikely any person at all is?
What casues that? Nothing. There's no cause. There is a mixture of deliberate decisions and random chance.
Quote:Everytning in life that seems t be caused by mysterious forces is always labeled luck.
You can label it whatever you want. Some label it God's divine will, or God's plan. The label itself is not proof.
Quote: EvenBobEverytning in life that seems t be caused by mysterious forces is always labeled luck.
I call it fate or karma, and specifically avoid calling it luck:-)
Quote: rdw4potusI call it fate or karma, and specifically avoid calling it luck:-)
The more backward a culture is, the more they talk about luck. The more we understand about how things work, the more the word disappears. I've finally gotten the valet parkers at my local casino to stop saying 'good luck' to me when I get out of my car. I just kept asking them what that means, and if they really mean it, and most of them finally got the message.
Quote: DJTeddyBearI completely missed it.
On the other hand, I learned first hand about law #6 a few years ago, when I decided to walk from the Stratosphere to Circus Circus. With the wife. In the mid-afternoon. In August.
It was only about an inch on the map....
in '08 i had my bachelor party in vegas. one of my buddies had never been before. we were staying at mandalay bay. he walked from our hotel to DOWN TOWN! A few of us had gotten up before anyone else and were at the belliago playing craps, i called him and he was on his way to downtown
Quote: NareedThat's just what I mean when I say there's no such thing as luck. Nothing "caused" the royal you hit on VP, it's just how the cards were dealt.
Consider this. Every person is a unique mixture of genetic material inherited from both parents. Even though a set of parents has only a limited number of chromosome arrangements in their gametes, the results of reproduction vary enormously. In other words, you ressemble your siblings, but you are all distinct from each other. There are reasons for this which are not germane right now.
However, had your parents conceived a day later, you wouldn't exist. Had they not met, you wouldn't exist. Had your mother misscarried you, naturally you wouldn't exist. Had any of your grandparents not met, you wouldn't exist. Had your great-great-great-great-grandmother postponed sex for a few hours, you woulnd't exist. So every person is the result of a myriad coincidences stretching back literally thousands of years.
Do you realize just how unlikely any person at all is?
What casues that? Nothing. There's no cause. There is a mixture of deliberate decisions and random chance.
You can label it whatever you want. Some label it God's divine will, or God's plan. The label itself is not proof.
For that reason alone, I consider my own existence to be very lucky indeed. But do I exist?
Quote: EvenBobThe more backward a culture is, the more they talk about luck. The more we understand about how things work, the more the word disappears. I've finally gotten the valet parkers at my local casino to stop saying 'good luck' to me when I get out of my car. I just kept asking them what that means, and if they really mean it, and most of them finally got the message.
Like I said, you're only trying to impress people who are much more in tune with their own intelligence than you want them to be. Your first sentence indicates how much you've been tongue-tied by this discussion. The US is hardly backwards, yet even presidents, CEO's, Military leaders, and scholars mention the word "luck" at appropriate times. But you don't unless you can put on a foolish act about it. What's that tell you.
Quote: JerryLoganLike I said, you're only trying to impress people who are much more in tune with their own intelligence than you want them to be. Your first sentence indicates how much you've been tongue-tied by this discussion. The US is hardly backwards, yet even presidents, CEO's, Military leaders, and scholars mention the word "luck" at appropriate times. But you don't unless you can put on a foolish act about it. What's that tell you.
Aren't you the guy who won the douchebag poll? Gee, I wonder why. Your post is so silly I can't even reply to it..
Folks are trying to put a hard definition to a soft noun. You are trying to hit a butterfly by throwing a brick at it. Just because this is a math-oriented forum doesn't mean I can't feel lucky. Or that I can't say losing every bet all night was unlucky. You can call that "short term variance" if you want to, but it sure feels like "unlucky as hell".
If I tried to use those feelings to predict my results; if I said that there is no such thing as odds or variance, that it is all luck; if I said that because I was lucky this afternoon, that I will be lucky tonight, or because I haven't hit the jackpot then I'm due... yeah, all that is wrong. But you can't intellectualize the fact that we can only see up until NOW, and what will happen can only be estimated. Who knows, I might get lucky.
Quote: EvenBobThe more backward a culture is, the more they talk about luck.
That is completely wrong. Understanding does not lead to more understanding; it leads to more mystery. The less you know, the more certain you are that you know it all.
Quote: MoscaOdds, variance, all the math that everyone invokes to say luck doesn't exist... Luck is the unpredictableness of experience. Looking forward, it represents potential, and yes, the feelings toward that potential. Looking back, it describes results.
Folks are trying to put a hard definition to a soft noun. You are trying to hit a butterfly by throwing a brick at it. Just because this is a math-oriented forum doesn't mean I can't feel lucky. Or that I can't say losing every bet all night was unlucky. You can call that "short term variance" if you want to, but it sure feels like "unlucky as hell".
If I tried to use those feelings to predict my results; if I said that there is no such thing as odds or variance, that it is all luck; if I said that because I was lucky this afternoon, that I will be lucky tonight, or because I haven't hit the jackpot then I'm due... yeah, all that is wrong. But you can't intellectualize the fact that we can only see up until NOW, and what will happen can only be estimated. Who knows, I might get lucky.
I was thinking about your point that luck includes emotion, and while I don't completely agree with it, I understand where you're coming from with it.
I think a lot of it is because the concept of luck is something we understand at a young age. Since lots of things seemingly happen out of chance (or, at least, it seems that way when a human isn't in complete control of a situation), it's an easy concept to get. Given that + the stakes when gambling, it's easy to associate emotion with it.
Since the concept of "luck" is a lot more natural than "short term variance", it seems a lot more natural to call it "luck", even though it's referring to similar things.
Luck is also a concept that also isn't always easily quantifiable. It is, in gambling, because it's easy to know the house edge, variance, and all the other stats that go along with a particular game. Thus, it seems more mysterious when used in everyday life, as all the factors aren't known.
I think that Luck is a causal relationship with emotion, instead of an inclusive relationship.
For example, here are two statements:
1.) Good luck can cause a positive emotional reaction.
2.) Good luck includes a positive emotional reaction.
To me, statement #1 seems more appropriate. I don't think a positive emotional reaction is necessary for good luck, thus the emotional reaction isn't included in the definition of luck.
