ALL or NOTHING BLACKJACK

I have a math/gambling question that I was hoping you guys could help me with. There are 2 methods that I'm trying to choose between, but don't know which one has a higher % chance for success. Let's say my goal is to win $1,000 and I have a $3,000 bankroll. I bet $1,000. If I lose the first hand I bet $2,000 on the second. If I win either of the two hands I quit and if I lose both, we'll my bankroll is gone. The second method that I'm thinking about also has the goal of winning $1,000, but with a $3,500 bankroll. Instead of having to win one out of two hands like the first method requires, I have to win one out of three hands twice. For example, I would bet $500 on the first hand, if I lose then I bet $1,000 on the second, if I lose again then I bet $2,000 on the third. If I win any of the $500 hands then I start over.

So Do I have a better chance of winning one out of two hands one time or one out of three hands two times? Thsnks, Josh

What you're describing is not too different than the famous Martingale Betting System.

On the surface, it sounds like a workable plan, except losing three (or more) times in a row is not uncommon at all.

I believe if you are going for a ONE TIME win, the Wizard always says bet the most you can as quickly as you can, so the first option would be better. You will have a fair chance of winning ONCE, but as was stated above, in the long run (if you try to make this a money making plan) you will lose. Of course you have a fair chance at losing anyway, even just doing it once.

Yeah, I'm just gonna do it once at the end of my trip. Money permitting of course.I'll use the 3 loss system (second method) for the majority of my trip, but with much smaller amounts= $25,50, then $100.

The wizard covered a very similar question as this on his WoO site here it is:

Hi, Wizard. Let’s say I have $300 to gamble with, and can accept a 25% risk of ruin. What should I do to maximize my upside? Thanks! — Jerry T from Hertford

I would make the banker bet in baccarat. My betting advice would be to do what is known as a two-step progression. First, bet 1/3 of your bankroll. If that wins, walk away. If that loses, then bet the other 2/3. Again, if you win, walk. With any tie, just bet again until the bet is resolved. Here are the probabilities in baccarat:

Banker: 45.86%
Player: 44.62%
Tie: 9.52%

The probability of a banker win, given that the bet is resolved is 45.86%/(45.86%+44.62%) = 50.68%. The probability of losing both steps of the progression is (1-0.5068)2 = 24.32%. The banker bet pays 19 to 20, so you will have a 75.68% chance of winning $95, and a 24.32% chance of losing $300. June 7, 2008

Blackjack is not the right game for this. Suppose you lost your first hand and you go and bet the $2,000, the rest of your bankroll, on your next hand. What happens if you got a pair of Aces or an 11 vs dealer 6? Do you have more cash on hand to make the proper play? If not, or if you are not comfortable betting $4,000+ on a hand, then pick a different game.

Some good options would be:

Baccarat banker: 1.06%
Craps don't pass: 1.36%
Craps pass: 1.41%

If things go well for me and I win my sports (UFC) bets then yes I should have enough to DD with in case my last hand comes down to that. I wanted to do it on blackjack because I'm not familiar with any other games. Do any of you guys know mathematically speaking if the probability of winning one out of two hands or winning one out of three hands twice is greater? I know that I should know how to figure this out, but I'm weak in math. Thanks guys.

Quote: Josh123

If things go well for me and I win my sports (UFC) bets then yes I should have enough to DD with in case my last hand comes down to that. I wanted to do it on blackjack because I'm not familiar with any other games. Do any of you guys know mathematically speaking if the probability of winning one out of two hands or winning one out of three hands twice is greater? I know that I should know how to figure this out, but I'm weak in math. Thanks guys.

From the wizard:

Quote: Wizard

What is the probability of winning any given hand in blackjack?

Under Atlantic City rules the probability of a net win is 43.31%, a tie is 8.80%, and a loss is 47.89%. For more information visit my blackjack appendix 4.

I think what you are really asking is what is the probability of winning the first hand, or losing the first and winning the second. In other words, that your system works in your favour.

Here it is: 0.4749 + (0.5251*0.4749) = 72.4%

For your second method:

Success for one iteration: 0.4749 + (0.5251*0.4749) + (0.5251*0.5251*0.4749) = 85.5%
Success for two: 0.8549*0.8549 = 73.1%

So If I read that correctly, I have a slightly higher probability of winning one out of three hands twice than winning one out of two hands once?

Quote: Josh123

So If I read that correctly, I have a slightly higher probability of winning one out of three hands twice than winning one out of two hands once?

Yes. This should make sense intuitively as well, since you are paying $500 more for the privilege.

Okay, thanks for the help. I appreciate it. I go on Feb.5. I'll let you know how it went.

Cool thanks. That helps.