70 percent of people at a casino visit are ahead at one point - John Patrick?
I've seen this phrase tossed around in various locations for a while now. What's the source of this bad information? Is it John Patrick?
Most people don't go to win, they go to have fun. Winning and leaving after 3 minutes isn't fun. You don't go to a football game and leave after the first series of downs because if you stay you'll buy a hot dog and a beer. Being ahead at any one point is totally irrelevant.
Thing was you'd lose the rest of the time you entire bankroll, so the casino still won and the EV of the house worked.
And even if you limited the number of hands, you would be up at some point more than 50% of the time... but "take the win" tactics don't work. You go back enough times, you will hit the over 30% and lose more than you won.
The problem is, the point at which you're ahead, rarely coincides with the time at which you've planned to leave.
Nah. Let's not split hairs about it. "Being ahead" is a state of being. An emotion. You see your spouse approaching the table, you glance down at your chips and tell her "I'm ahead five bucks and all my bets on the table are with their money". You don't do some calculations about comps or expected traffic jams or hotel rooms. Ahead means you are "in the plus column" or "in the black". Ahead usually means by a substantial enough amount to matter to you and after a substantial enough amount of time to be of significance to you.Quote: konceptumWouldn't there need to be a clear definition of "being ahead"?
We need not slice an already fine hair ... If you look down after twenty minutes and see "X" more chips than you started with, you are ahead. If you see fewer than you started with ... you are 'down'.
Sure after the very first spin of the wheel you can be either UP or DOWN, but no one really counts that it would be a "JUST GOT HERE" response if a friend happened to walk by and ask how you were doing. After a few spins you are then in a position to feel 'ahead' or 'behind'.
Quote: FleaStifff you look down after twenty minutes and see "X" more chips than you started with, you are ahead.
Regardless of how well you did this morning or yesterday.
Quote: s2dbakerIf you win the first bet, you are ahead. If you lose the first bet and win the next two, then you are ahead. That should account for 70% right there.
Assuming a perfectly fair game, that's only 62.5%, not 70%. (And the infinite series still only sums to 2/3.)
Whichever makes you feel better. I'd tend to focus on a "session" particularly if I am ahead that session but had lost earlier. Some might say "I'm on a comeback" meaning I lost earlier but I'm gaining on them and will catch up shortly. No one is going to admit in the middle of a spin that they are thinking of airline tickets and hotel rooms and tips to the valet and paying for some hooker. Just as the casino segregates out your Comps and your gambling; so too do the players.Quote: kpRegardless of how well you did this morning or yesterday.
It was downhill from there.....
Quote: thecesspitIt's probably about right.
I think the OP wants the source of the quotation.
As to the rest, simply consider in how many of your gambling sessions you've found yourself ahead by at elast one unit. I'm willing to say it's at least in 70% of them, if not in a lot more. I often will cash out on VP if I'm ahead by half or more of the buy in, then re-buy at the original amount. Of course you can still lose that way, but you may salvage something.
Quote: NareedI think the OP wants the source of the quotation.
I saw that 70% figure in a Las Vegas Magazine article
about 5 years ago, and they used the gaming dept
at UNLV as a source. Good enough for me.
Quote: WizardNot to doubt UNLV, but if I were asked to hazard a guess it would be higher than 70%.
The same article said 94% of gamblers leave Vegas with
less money than they came with. The point of the article
was, if 70% are ahead at one point, why do 94% leave
losers. Its obviously the players fault and not Vegas. This
was LV Mag, remember.
Quote: 7outlineawayAssuming a perfectly fair game, that's only 62.5%, not 70%. (And the infinite series still only sums to 2/3.)
The comment is
70% of the people are ahead
NOT
people are ahead 70%
Quote: DJTeddyBearPersonally, I think it's actually higher than 70%.
The problem is, the point at which you're ahead, rarely coincides with the time at which you've planned to leave.
That is an awesome quote!
Quote: DJTeddyBearThe problem is, the point at which you're ahead, rarely coincides with the time at which you've planned to leave.
Thats pretty much it. My wife can get ahead on the second
day, but we don't leave till the third day. Will she quit on
the second day? Yeah, right....
Would have to also rely on the honesty of the person surveyed and whether they really did any in-process thinking on the issue or not. Its a reasonable figure to bandy about in one of those cutesy magazines about casinos. Reasonable. Not necessarily precisely correct or valid, but from what is available it is a reasonable figure.Quote: WizardI have no idea. Seems to me you would need to do a survey to get at the answer, since this is so dependent on the game played, betting strategy, stopping points, and playing strategy. Not to doubt UNLV, but if I were asked to hazard a guess it would be higher than 70%.
Quote: WizardI have no idea. Seems to me you would need to do a survey to get at the answer, since this is so dependent on the game played, betting strategy, stopping points, and playing strategy. Not to doubt UNLV, but if I were asked to hazard a guess it would be higher than 70%.
Let's modify the question.
Okay, if everyone purposely went to Vegas to play the game of their choice (like they would normally do) and absolutely made a plan to leave as soon as they were ahead, no exceptions, the answer should be even stronger that everyone would leave ahead. Because it's going to assure they will leave when they are ahead, not just randomly.
But I don't think so. No the odds come into play no matter what over the billions of plays. Some people will just get slammed hard with no wins right at the start of their play. The odds will have their way.
Am I wrong?
Show me the rule....Quote: 1BBYou turned in that $10, right DJ?
70% could leave ahead.
But 30% would leave enough money with the casinos to make up both the 70% that were ahead but also satisfy odds against everyone.
"70% of the people who enter a casino get ahead at some time during their stay, yet...90% of that 70% give the money back."
You wonder where he pulled this statistic out of?
Answer:his a$$.
Quote: MrVJohn Patrick has used the following mantra for many, many years (much more than five years):
"70% of the people who enter a casino get ahead at some time during their stay, yet...90% of that 70% give the money back."
You wonder where he pulled this statistic out of?
Answer:his a$$.
I read all his books and he says that in most if not all of his books. I thought it was 80% though.
Quote: DJTeddyBearShow me the rule....
Well I say. Since I got a purdy lil picture avail to me... and multiple places you've provided them thar personal infos, I reckon I could call my boys at the station and wrassle me up a sticky fingered Rev'rund! Boy howdy, I might'un get mah picture on da front page wit da Mayor, won't mamma be proud!
J/K DJ, just trying to keep up on my "Sherrif" status. ;)
Quote: Keyser"70 percent of people at a casino visit are ahead at one point"
I've seen this phrase tossed around in various locations for a while now. What's the source of this bad information? Is it John Patrick?
What the average gambler doesn't know is that how often you win does not matter what matters is how much you win vs how much you lose!
Quote: MrVJohn Patrick has used the following mantra for many, many years (much more than five years):
"70% of the people who enter a casino get ahead at some time during their stay, yet...90% of that 70% give the money back."
You wonder where he pulled this statistic out of?
Answer:his a$$.
Just like his books. They are fun to read if you like that sort of thing. I do.
Gambling system books amuse me. But then so do infomercials...
I was once a regular at his board, but as time passed I concluded the emperor had no clothes.
In fact, with Frank Stanton now acting as his court jester, I fear he has no sanity.
Quote: rxwineLet's modify the question.
Okay, if everyone purposely went to Vegas to play the game of their choice (like they would normally do) and absolutely made a plan to leave as soon as they were ahead, no exceptions,
That would be an interesting experiment to try.
How far ahead? Say I buy-in for $100 and flat bet $5. Do I leave the minute I reach $110? (flat bet or not, the dealer should be tipped $5) Or maybe set a stop point, say being ahead by 15% of the buy-in?
Quote: rxwineabsolutely made a plan to leave as soon as they were ahead, no exceptions
What is "leave"? What is "ahead"?
How long do I have to leave before I come back? Is going to dinner for an hour good enough? Do I have to go home and come back to Vegas in 3 months, 6 months, or a year? Do I have to quit gambling?
If a 21 year old walks into a casino and places their very first bet and wins, then they could quit gambling while ahead. The rest of us mentally reset the score to zero the "next time" we play, bet that after dinner, tomorrow, or the next trip.
Quote: Keyser"70 percent of people at a casino visit are ahead at one point"
I've seen this phrase tossed around in various locations for a while now. What's the source of this bad information? Is it John
Patrick?
There has to be a big difference between the percent at Red Rock (LV) vrs a cruise ship.
I've seen it attributed to this book.
The comment is almost meaningless. I would think if a craps player confines his initial bets to the pass line and free odds, you would expect more than 70% to be ahead at some point in their playing. At least 22.2% will be ahead on the first roll of the dice.
Quote: MoscaMan, I dunno. I'd agree with it. You sit down at a slot and on the third spin, you get 3 mixed bars... you're up one unit. Win the first two hands at blackjack, or the first roll at craps, you're up. Put $100 in a $1 WoF slot and get a spin some time in the first 20 pulls, you're going to be ahead.
Most people don't go to win, they go to have fun. Winning and leaving after 3 minutes isn't fun. You don't go to a football game and leave after the first series of downs because if you stay you'll buy a hot dog and a beer. Being ahead at any one point is totally irrelevant.
Why aren't you up if you win the FIRST blackjack hand?
Quote: thecesspitJust like his books. They are fun to read if you like that sort of thing. I do.
Gambling system books amuse me. But then so do infomercials...
Must be a thing. I've read all John Patrick's books and I find infomercials amusing also.
Quote: pacomartin
I've seen it attributed to this book. The comment is almost meaningless.
Its meaningless because the implication is, quit while
you're ahead and come back and do it again. This is
impossible if you don't have the edge. All gambling
sessions are linked to all the other sessions you've
played. Its all one long session. So you're ahead $25
and leave. Do the same next time. And the next time.
Then you play and you're never ahead in the next
session and lose $400. You can play this way forever
and eventually find you're losing right at the house
edge.
Quote: DJTeddyBearShow me the rule....
I don't know if you were being sarcastic or not but I'll still throw it out there. If I saw you drop $1000 and picked it up when you walked away is it mine?
Mark
Quote: marksolbergI don't know if you were being sarcastic or not but I'll still throw it out there. If I saw you drop $1000 and picked it up when you walked away is it mine?Mark
Under the law, no. You're supposed to turn it in. If you see
money or chips on a casino floor and pocket them, and they
get it on camera, you'll be arrested. Seriously.
Quote: EvenBobQuote: pacomartin
I've seen it attributed to this book. The comment is almost meaningless.
Its meaningless because the implication is, quit while
you're ahead and come back and do it again. This is
impossible if you don't have the edge. All gambling
sessions are linked to all the other sessions you've
played. Its all one long session. So you're ahead $25
and leave. Do the same next time. And the next time.
Then you play and you're never ahead in the next
session and lose $400. You can play this way forever
and eventually find you're losing right at the house
edge.
90% of systems books I've read are based on the idea of having winning sessions and being "up" and walking. This concept is normally tied in with : any losing session is your lack of discipline AND 'those maths guys... they know nothing about the real cards and dice'.
John Patrick and Rob Singer... both have the same sort of ideas in their books, just expressed in their own unique ways.
I guess I helped John though... I paid for his books...
Quote: kpHow long do I have to leave before I come back?
I think 110 years minimum. : )
Quote:What is "ahead"?
Now that one is simple. Because if you don't know when you're ahead you shouldn't even gamble.
Quote: thecesspit90% of systems books I've read are based on the idea of having winning sessions and being "up" and walking. This concept is normally tied in with : any losing session is your lack of discipline AND 'those maths guys... they know nothing about the real cards and dice'.
John Patrick and Rob Singer... both have the same sort of ideas in their books, just expressed in their own unique ways.
I guess I helped John though... I paid for his books...
John Patrick doesn't even play his own Craps system. His system for making money is to sell books. Smart guy.
This has been discussed heavily in other threads. FYI: I didn't see who dropped it.Quote: marksolbergI don't know if you were being sarcastic or not but I'll still throw it out there. If I saw you drop $1000 and picked it up when you walked away is it mine?
Yeah, I was being sarcastic. When I saw that $10, the rule was in the back of my head. I'll take a slap on the wrist for that.
I saw that $10 before I started gambling. It was downhill from there. Perhaps this thread is suggesting I should not have gambled and left while I was ahead.
Quote: EvenBobAll gambling sessions are linked to all the other sessions you've played. Its all one long session.
Not according to John Patrick and his handful of devoted followers.
They argue (lamely and ineffectively) that the long run does not apply to them.
They also argue that math plays no part in gambling (only "arithmetic") and that logic and discipline are most important.
Ah, the land of the Lotus Eaters ...
Quote: MrVJohn Patrick has used the following mantra for many, many years (much more than five years):
"70% of the people who enter a casino get ahead at some time during their stay, yet...90% of that 70% give the money back."
You wonder where he pulled this statistic out of?
Answer:his a$$.
While it's true that 84% of statistics are made up on the spot, his round numbers have the ring of truth to them.
Quote: ncfatcatWell all the commodity traders with their "systems" use the john patrick system which is the deceptive "Cut your losses and let your profits run"
Isn't it the other way around ?
Ken
