bet the don't

I bet $25 on the don't. If a six or eight is the point I place $24 as well providing a small but guarnteed win.
Is there a corresponding odds bet on both sides of that bet that will yield a small win either way?

Turning dimes into dollars

You're forgetting about hitting a 7 on the come-out roll.

Factor that in and it's a loosing proposition.

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Turning dimes into dollars

Its very difficult to turn dimes into dollars when the house edge grinds relentlessly. Its the casino that is turning the dimes into dollars!

If you have bet 25 on the don't ... then you've taken your risk and should not try to hedge your bet in such a manner that when it is resolved nothing really much happens. A dime is not a sufficient reward for the risk that you are taking.

If you made a DontPass bet of 25 dollars and the shooter rolled a six, you are at that moment over the main risk that you took: the seven did not roll. Now your bet is in YOUR favor and that is why the casino will allow you to take it down if you wish. It would be foolish for you to take it down however. Some places have dealers that actually encourage the player to call "no action" so that his Dontbet remains as a Dontbet for the next roll, but this foolish.

Your bet is that a seven will be rolled before a six is rolled. That is still likely to happen, even though a six is more likely to roll than a four. IF you want to, you might simply refrain from laying odds on your bet. This cuts down the variance and will allow you some greater peace of mind if you are concerned that a six is likely.

Best thing is to not deprive yourself of a win. When that 7 does indeed roll, you will collect your full winnings and won't lose your place bet.

I play lots of craps and am also a don't player! Come out roll has a 67% chance of yielding a point roll. Once there--- the overall probablity of a win is 60%. For 6/8 its 55% For 5/9 60% and for 4/10 67%. These are rounded folks so all you math majors please settle down! If risking a huge amount of money on 4/10 you can increase your probabilty of winning to 75% by betting the 4/10 in the small box at the right, usually at 8/1 odds. You should only do this if you are betting a boat load because over time taking this insurance is a loser financially. But it can give you peace of mind if betting a very large sum you are nervous about losing.

Both playing right and wrong have pretty similar house edge. There is a very slight advantage to betting wrong due to the 12 being a push!

Quote: zippedup

Both playing right and wrong have pretty similar house edge.

True. And that slight difference will be erased by just one error or one coctail tip or one dealer tip, so it really makes no great difference whether you choose to bet Right or bet Wrong. I tend to choose to bet from the Don'ts even when I am shooting, but if you have to carry my advantage out to three decimal points for it to show up, then its really not much of a significant factor.

>Come out roll has a 67% chance of yielding a point roll.
I can take your word on that or I can take my shoes off and try to work out the math. I choose to take your word for it.
>Once there--- the overall probablity of a win is 60%.
>For 6/8 its 55% For 5/9 60% and for 4/10 67%.
Thanks for the math. Even rounded off its far better than I could do.

>only do this if you are betting a boat load because taking insurance is a loser financially.
Agreed. Its best to just make your bet and accept the consequences than try to nibble away at any potential success by hedging your bet.

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I bet $25 on the don't. If a six or eight is the point I place $24 as well providing a small but guarnteed win.
Is there a corresponding odds bet on both sides of that bet that will yield a small win either way?

Turning dimes into dollars

Your "system" has an expected loss of $.44192 per bet resolved, or an HA (based on a $25 flat bet) of 1.77%.

The HA on the don't pass is always 1.364% (with no odds). The HA on the 6 and 8 is 1.52%. When you hedge the 6 and 8, the house advantage goes up because a flat $25 don't pass will pay you $2.27 on the 6 or 8 on average while hedging it will yield you $1.91 on average. You're giving up $.36 on average per 6 and 8 to reduce variance. If you're okay with that, that's fine.

But on a 108 resolved don't pass bets, the 6 and 8 will be the point, on average 30 times and that will cost you $10.90.

I lay the 4 and 10 on the come for $51 a piece as protection on the 7. i pull those bets back after a point is made.
No action on the 6 or 8 is not a good call I agree.
I feel that the small guaranteed win is still ok but what if iplaced odds on both sides of the board to increase the guarnteed win? i suppose it is not possible or we would ave heard more about it. Thanks for your helpm and if you come up withsome numbers let me know

See commandment 7 in my Ten Commandments of gambling.

Thanks for all the help.
What ways do you bet the Don't?

I agree totally fleastaff and sometimes I will even play right if I haven't seen a 7 in awhile! Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!! I can't say this out loud because I will get 115 emails about the probablities being the same regardless of how many times a 7 doesn't role..... but what the heck if the odds are so close right vs wrong who cares lololol!

Quote: zippedup

I agree totally fleastaff and sometimes I will even play right if I haven't seen a 7 in awhile! Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!! I can't say this out loud because I will get 115 emails about the probablities being the same regardless of how many times a 7 doesn't role..... but what the heck if the odds are so close right vs wrong who cares lololol!

It's gotta be harmless to indulge your whims as long as you don't change the size of your bet.

Quote: odiousgambit

It's gotta be harmless ... as long as you don't change the size of your bet.

I was once quite happy to be doing 50 on the Don't and then suddenly dropped one of those thousand dollar chips down into the Come Area. Fortunately, the roll was indeed a 7. I didn't realize until afterwards that I'd have made more by increasing my lay bets or by betting on Big Red. Ofcourse it was a whim, but that particular whim turned out to be a good bet.

Odious--Good point on keeping the bet the same. I try to bet a consistent amount all the time except if laying 4/10
Thanks

Wrong Way here too. 3-4-5x tables local at $5 min. IMHO, if you're willing to risk 25 on the No-No, then you should back it with 150. 0.273% House edge. Even at 30 behind 25, its 0.7% for the single-odds bet. As other say, the games in your favor after a Come-Out 7.

FWIW I usually play NO-NO with 6x behind, and ONE Dont Come with full odds. Thats it, and it can get expensive at $5.

N&B

edited for typo "0.23" is 0.273

When playing the don't, should one lay odds regardless of the point, or should the point be taken into account?

Meaning, the odds for a 4/10 are lower than for a 6/8. To me it makes more sense to lay full odds on 4/10, but perhaps single odds or double odds on 6/8 (this in a place that allows 10X, 20X or 100X). And I'm undecided on 5/9.

BTW, I'm a bit unsure about the rules regarding laying/taking odds. If a casino allows 10X, does that mean I can lay/take anywhere from 1X to 10X, or just 10X? Example: I bet $5 on don't pass and the come out roll is 10. Next do I ahve to lay $50 or can I lay $5, $10, $15, etc as I choose?

You can lay or take odds of any value between none and whatever the maximum is. You'll have to go by increments they can pay, but there is no minumum. In the example you gave, though, at a 10x table, with the point of 10, your maximum would be $100. The 10x odds refers to how much you can win if you lay, and how much you can bet if you take. Since 10x of your $5 is $50, you can win a max of 50. Since it pays 1:2, you can lay a max of $100. With 5/9 they often let you go over the max for ease of payment. AC has a lot of 5x tables, and if you bet $15 on the pass line, they'll let you go to $100 on the 5/9, and also $125 on the 6/8 for some reason (I think they round 15 up to 25, I've never figured it out) sometimes I'll have an odd pass line bet out ($35) and I have no idea how they come up with how much I can take at 5x.


As for the value of laying more on 4/10 as opposed to 6/8, it's just a matter of how much you want to risk. You are taking a bet with zero house edge. By not taking it sometimes, you are merely declining to take an "even money" (not in terms of payout but in terms of fairness) proposition. It's the best bet in the house, but it doesn't change the EV or HE depending on WHICH point is rolled. It's the same for all six possible points.

Quote: Nareed

BTW, I'm a bit unsure about the rules regarding laying/taking odds. If a casino allows 10X, does that mean I can lay/take anywhere from 1X to 10X, or just 10X? Example: I bet $5 on don't pass and the come out roll is 10. Next do I ahve to lay $50 or can I lay $5, $10, $15, etc as I choose?

You can lay up to $100 on a $5 don't pass when the point is 4 or 10 with 10X odds. Just make sure it is an even number. With a 5 or 9, up to $75 (and a multiple of 3). 6 or 8, up to $60, (multiple of 6). See the wizard of odds craps section for more info.

Good dealers will point out when your odds are not a proper multiple.