Silly Craps Question
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Playing craps at Mohegan Sun last week the dealer got into a heated argument with the roller over what-i-don't-know and totally killed the mood of the table. I was playing a $5 (table min) line bet with max 5X odds, as well as place bets inside. Sensing a bad feeling, I took back my odds and place bets. Sure enough next roll (once the yelling stopped) the guy crapped out. My question is what would be the best bet to make once I took back my other bets to hedge against the loss on my line bet, assuming the next roll was a 7?
To answer the question though: There are two basic ways. If you absolutely know a seven is coming next hop the 7 3-ways. Do NOT bet "any seven" / "big red". They are the exact same thing but hopping the 7 3-ways is a better bet, it's like doing big6/8 rather than placing it. The "smarter" way to do it would be to "lay" the number. So if you had $5 and the point is six, you could lay $25 and get $19 back on a seven. A simpler way to do this with the best house advantage would be to throw a $5 on the don't come - the only problem with this strat is if a seven is the next roll you're boned.
No, it appears he Sevened Out.Quote: redsoxthe guy crapped out.
Quote: redsoxHello all. Newbie to the forum. Apologies in advance if this is an easy question or is addressed elsewhere on the site.
Playing craps at Mohegan Sun last week the dealer got into a heated argument with the roller over what-i-don't-know and totally killed the mood of the table. I was playing a $5 (table min) line bet with max 5X odds, as well as place bets inside. Sensing a bad feeling, I took back my odds and place bets. Sure enough next roll (once the yelling stopped) the guy crapped out. My question is what would be the best bet to make once I took back my other bets to hedge against the loss on my line bet, assuming the next roll was a 7?
Tell everyone within earshot that you're going to go across the river. What's across the river you ask? FOXWOODS!!
Quote: ahiromuI am required by forum law to remind you that one of the Wizard's commandments is: Thou shalt not hedge thy bets.
To answer the question though: If you absolutely know a seven is coming next hop the 7 3-ways. Do NOT bet "any seven" / "big red". They are the exact same thing but hopping the 7 3-ways is a better bet, it's like doing big6/8 rather than placing it.
A 3way7 hop bet is only "better" than the Seven bet when the hop bets pay 16 for 1 or 15 to 1.
If the hop bets pay 15 for 1 (14 to 1), just bet the Seven. Both bets will pay the exact amount and at a very high HA.
Example: $3 Seven pays 4 to 1 (or 5 for 1) so it would pay $15 and down ($3*4 +$3 original bet) for a $12 net profit.
$3 3way 7 has $1 on each of the 3 hop bets (1-6, 2-5, 3-4) pays $16 and down ($1*15 +$1 original bet that won) for a $13 net profit ($15 -$2 that lost). You profit 1 extra unit where $1 is your unit size.
If hop bets pay 15 for 1 (14 to 1)
$3 3way 7 has $1 on each of the 3 hop bets (1-6, 2-5, 3-4) pays $15 and down ($1*14 +$1 original bet that won) for a $12 net profit ($14 -$2 that lost). You profit 0 extra unit, just like the Seven bet.
The difference? It takes a min $3 to make a 3way7 bet and only $1 to make the Seven bet.
Keep these bets to a minimum since the Seven bet carries a 16.67% HA.
Tough to over come very large HAs the longer one makes that type of bet.
Quote: redsoxHello all. Newbie to the forum. Apologies in advance if this is an easy question or is addressed elsewhere on the site.
Playing craps at Mohegan Sun last week the dealer got into a heated argument with the roller over what-i-don't-know and totally killed the mood of the table. I was playing a $5 (table min) line bet with max 5X odds, as well as place bets inside. Sensing a bad feeling, I took back my odds and place bets. Sure enough next roll (once the yelling stopped) the guy crapped out.
Sure enough? You seem to be assuming that the seven was CAUSED by the "killed mood" of the table. Nonsense.
Quote: redsoxMy question is what would be the best bet to make once I took back my other bets to hedge against the loss on my line bet, assuming the next roll was a 7?
If you really believed that the seven was inevitable, you could have just made a Come bet, which wins on seven and is a perfectly good bet in any case.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Quote: goatcabinSure enough? You seem to be assuming that the seven was CAUSED by the "killed mood" of the table. Nonsense.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Superstition is a funny thing to watch at a Craps table.
In my younger days when I tracked almost everything that happened at a Craps table, I have kept a record (not faithfully) of 3 stats over the years.
I carry a card in my pocket with these numbers just to point out what really happens at a craps table.
#1 stat) how many rolls after a die(or both dice) left the table did the 7 appear when a point was established?
Since on a come out roll it really does not matter...according to superstition.
2,173 total times this happened. It happens a lot at Bill's Casino in Las Vegas at the Rapid Craps table. New players new to craps and to tossing the dice etc.
On the first roll...350 times. the expected number of times. ~362
On the 2nd roll...321 times. the expected number of times. ~302
On the 3rd roll...261 times. the expected number of times. ~252
Looks to me to be right close to that 1 in 6 probability.
#2 stat) when the dice do not roll, for an argument, a buy-in during a hand or a lage fill, anything to stop the dice from rolling for at least 1 minute. Frequency was only 816.
On the first roll...137 times. the expected number of times. 136 (scary)
On the 2nd roll...99 times. the expected number of times. ~113
On the 3rd roll...101 times. the expected number of times. ~94
Again, looks quite close to expectation.
#3 stat) New stick. yes, this is a good one. superstition says a change of stick in the middle of a hand while a point is established is the kiss of death for the shooter. It happened 9 times in a row last week at the El Cortez. What a streak. The players were in a panic. I left for dinner.
I have a good sample on this one. I was even anal and stuck the results in Excel.
Frequency was 18,551.(I played a lot of craps when I was young)
On the first roll...3158 times. the expected number of times. ~3092 More than 1SD from the mean.
On the 2nd roll...2602 times. the expected number of times. ~2577
On the 3rd roll...2161 times. the expected number of times. ~2147
By absolute numbers, I could fear a stick change while a point is established.
By expectation, I fear nothing.
I almost forget. Saying the word "Seven" when a point is established. BIG superstition.
A friend of mine plays the 3way7 almost every roll. But he calls out " 21, 3 way seven" or " 15- 3way seven" always saying the word seven.
It is funny to watch the other players. At first most Do bettors are pissed off at him, but then soon realize he is not winning every time, so they ignore him and his verbal "Seven" calls. It is actually a funny thing to witness.
I try to tell him his small wins do not compare to his large losses but he continues to play on. He tracked over 4,000 actual dice rolls that I placed into WinCraps a few years ago. and would you believe that he won,on average, every 6 rolls. The pass line also won 49.2% of the time.
What would a gambler be without a superstition in his pocket?
Quote: benbakdoffTell everyone within earshot that you're going to go across the river. What's across the river you ask? FOXWOODS!!
I did that the following day and had much better luck.
Quote: goatcabinIf you really believed that the seven was inevitable, you could have just made a Come bet, which wins on seven and is a perfectly good bet in any case.
This seems to be the prevailing logic. It also would have worked a while later when I did the same thing (took down my bets) - but it took the roller another 4 rolls to 7 out.
Quote: guido111What would a gambler be without a superstition in his pocket?
Guido thanks for the insight. I play for fun and tracking and analyzing like you did feels too much like my day job so I'll leave that to others. 1SD on Stat #3 doesn't scare me - but maybe cause I'm not superstitious about stick changes to begin with.
On the topic of superstition - a guy playing next to me once NEVER placed the 6 on a point of 8 and vice-versa. I told him the math doesn't lie and didn't understand, but what works works and let it be.
On that topic, I'm always confused when a player who does not play the line, waits for a point, then bets some numbers (i.e., Inside, Across, Outside, whatever), but does NOT include the point.Quote: redsoxOn the topic of superstition - a guy playing next to me once NEVER placed the 6 on a point of 8 and vice-versa. I told him the math doesn't lie and didn't understand, but what works works and let it be.
SO MANY players do that, when I put in my place bets, INCLUDING THE POINT, the dealer has to double check - even though I do not have a line bet!
Quote: guido111
On the first roll...3158 times. the expected number of times. ~3092 More than 1SD from the mean.
On the 2nd roll...2602 times. the expected number of times. ~2577
On the 3rd roll...2161 times. the expected number of times. ~2147
By absolute numbers, I could fear a stick change while a point is established.
By expectation, I fear nothing.
Given you 9 different stats, I'd expect one of them to be more than 1 SD from the mean :)
Another argument is the Frank Scoblete argument. Assuming, and this is a big assumption, that a player can control the dice even to the smallest degree enough to shift the odds even by a small percent..... The bad feelings or interruption in the rhythm or hearing the word "SEVEN" or seeing a woman in the wrong color dress or whatever else that shooter is superstitious about may "throw him/her off his/her game" and cause that shooter to immediately do something that causes the exact opposite of the attempted roll of 'not-seven'
Sometimes I turn off place and odds bets when the dice go off the table, or I see someone mess with the shooter, or the dealer accepts a new rack of chips or the stick or one of the dealers change. Sometimes I don't. I doubt it has made a difference.
However, whenever a fight breaks out, even a stupid argument over whether the player gave the dealer enough chips when it included a large toke for the dealers... If the feelings go bad, and by that I mean my personal feelings, I immediately reduce my exposure as much as possible. I may even keep them all down until the next shooter or leave the table after the current shooter.
My reasoning is this. If I am unhappy, sad, upset or just feeling negative. A win will not elevate my mood nearly as much as a big loss will depress it. Since I am playing for enjoyment, I don't like losing nearly as much when I am already unhappy.
I don't really do big crazy parlay and the such type bets. So pulling $12 or $24 off of a 6/8 or the $15 odds bet will not be so big a concern to not winning as it would be to losing it. Sometimes though rarely I even just get a feeling/hunch that a seven is coming. So I take stuff down. Sometimes it comes, sometimes it doesn't. But this is the point: If I feel for whatever reason(mental math, superstition, whatever) I should take things down and I don't I will feel bad emotions if the next roll loses all my exposure. If I do and the roller does 7 out, then I somehow feel good about the "reduced" loss, as much as if I just won all that was exposed.
So now I propose to introduce one more currency.
1. Money
2. Comps
3. Emotional well being :)
In the end, we have to try and get something for the cost of our chips. If it makes me happy, that is reason enough to do it :)
If the energy is bad, you will get depressed and I'm convinced it is harder to win. Case in point: the dealers at the Silverton are a**holes. I've never won there. If I did win, it didn't feel like I was winning. On the flipside, Main Street Station always has good crews and serious players who are ready to win. I've won big there, and when I lost, it didn't feel like I was losing.
So, yeah, it is a huge factor.
Quote: teddysI'll defend to the death that "good energy" is a necessity when having a good craps session.
If the energy is bad, you will get depressed and I'm convinced it is harder to win. Case in point: the dealers at the Silverton are a**holes. I've never won there. If I did win, it didn't feel like I was winning. On the flipside, Main Street Station always has good crews and serious players who are ready to win. I've won big there, and when I lost, it didn't feel like I was losing.
So, yeah, it is a huge factor.
I have to agree with you on this one teddy!!!
I have had a few solid (>15 min) rolls, and every one of them has had one common thing. Each time I have had this very calm, almost out of body feeling. No nervous feelings, or sore feet, no fear of a 7, or anything else. Just a nice calm feeling. Now I just need to grow the cajones to ratchet up my play the next time I get that feeling....
