Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
• Posts: 22083
December 2nd, 2009 at 2:09:20 PM permalink
Quote: boymimbo

The huge assumption is that the house advantage switches to you in the don't pass after the come out roll. Of course it does. But no hedging system will give you an advantage because of the 13.89% house advantage on the come out roll for don't pass. Place bets on the 6 and 8 carry a 1.52% HA, on the 5 and 9 a 4.00% HA and the 4-10 a 6.67% HA. These bets are cumulative and just add to the overall HA on your betting system so that the house advantage on the don't pass plus your bets are higher than the don't pass alone.

You can't assume that a table will be hot or cold, because it can change at any moment in time.

And that's the beauty of craps. You have people who believe in these systems which makes the game so popular yet there is no way to truly beat the game because the dice rolls are truly random.

In the end, your system is very vulnerable to the 7s and 11s thrown at the come out roll. Once the point is established, you'll be betting 98, 90, and 80 respectively to win \$20 at most (when a 7 is thrown before a 10). The problem is that on each come out roll, you are likely to lose \$6.94 on a \$50 bet. And while you will make an average of \$8.06 once the come out roll is established, that only happens in 2 of 3 come out rolls meaning that you will only win on average \$5.37 for the expected loss of \$1.57 on your total amount bet.

I still think you bring a large enough bankroll to overcome the volatility and use the money to bet \$15 on don't pass with full odds on the don't pass.

I couldn't have said it better myself.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
teddys
Joined: Nov 14, 2009