Asswhoopermcdaddy
Asswhoopermcdaddy
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November 30th, 2009 at 10:09:41 AM permalink
Hello Michael,

I wanted to ask a few questions that are more opinion based and 1 strategy question. Perhaps others might want to chime in as well.

1.) On the Las Vegas strip, where's the best place to play blackjack(a), craps(b), and multi-hand video poker(c) for comps assuming the following:

a.) Blackjack - Average bet size will range from $25 to $100, with a preference for tables that will pay 3:2 on a blackjack. Second preference would be for quiet but full tables during prime time hours.
b.) Craps - Average bet size will range from $84 - $435. There is a strong preference to take max odds of 1X or 2X and be at a quiet or semi-busy non-smoking table.
c.) Multi-hand video poker - Max lines of 5 or 100 with various bet ranges. Secondary preference is for at least a decent selection of multi-hand video poker machines.

2.) Where do you think is the best place on the strip to have a cocktail with a sight that's easy on the eyes?

3.) In craps, what are your thoughts on the following strategy which produces a positive expectation after a predetermined event.

Assumptions:
a.) Weak table with really bad shooters ocurring 75% of the time. Bad shooters defined as a person who tends to crap out before making a single point or tends to roll an any crap on the comeout roll.
b.) Table mins are $10.
c.) $50 bet on the Don't Pass Line w/ expectation that you survive the comeout roll ie point or 2, 3, or 12 will be made.
d.) If the point is 6 or 8, $48 place bet is made. If 5 or 9, a $40 place bet is made. If 4 or 10, a $30 place bet is made.
Analysis:
a.) It would appear that upon surviving the come out roll, a positive expectation event occurs by hedging the don't pass line.
b.) Given a weak table with 75% of shooters being unable to make a point, betting against the shooters would be favorable to begin with and hedging the bet after the comeout would eliminate the risk of the shooter making the point.
c.) I remember reading briefly about this type of strategy, with the 3 main flaws being a hot table with a higher probability of 7 and or 11s on the comeout roll, low return even if the point is made hence missing a potential hot shooter, and the inability to predict the trends of the tables.

What are your thoughts on this? I love both of your sites, and want to thank you again for all your insight.
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
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November 30th, 2009 at 12:00:22 PM permalink
Quote: Asswhoopermcdaddy

where's the best place to play blackjack, craps, and multi-hand video poker for comps
In craps, what are your thoughts on the following strategy which produces a positive expectation after a predetermined event.

Until the Wizard shows up, here is my two-cents worth: Its not good to play for comps. Play for fun and for money and merely be aware of the comps but don't alter your play just for comps.

As to your craps strategy, its a hedge. This diminishes the value of your DontPass bet. It won't undo the negative expectation of that initial DontPass bet.
teddys
teddys
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November 30th, 2009 at 12:12:08 PM permalink
Asswhooper,

I can't answer Michael's question for him but I can give some of my own opininos.

In regards to question (1)(a), I would say any of the MGM/Mirage properties. Those would be, in a somewhat descending order of preference: Mirage, Mandalay Bay, Monte Carlo, MGM, and Luxor.(I leave out Excalibur for obvious reasons). MGM will probably be the loudest of those; Monte Carlo the most "chill." All pay 3-2 on a blackjack and all have very good rules and comps for high limit players.

For craps, you will not have a problem finding 3x4x5x odds anywhere on the strip. So take your pick. I'll let someone else comment further on that since I'm not a big craps player.

For video poker I would have recommended the Wynn in the past. I actually cannot recommend any casino on the strip for serious video poker play these days. Someone else may disagree with me, but I say head over the Palms where they have 9/6 J.O.B. in 50-play pennies. Of course, if you are a big enough bettor you will probably find multi-play games to your liking in some of the high-limit rooms on the Strip. Again, I can't comment on that generally.

As far as your craps strategy, well, I'll let other people take that one, but in general there is no such thing as a "cold" shooter or a "hot" table. Past events have no bearing on future ones in dice. You shouldn't let how the shooter is doing affect your bet decision. Either bet pass or don't pass exclusively (or switch it up, or whatever; it doesn't matter). I like to play don't pass all the time because it has a slightly lower house edge and I find it more fun.

-Ted
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
pocketaces
pocketaces
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November 30th, 2009 at 2:20:17 PM permalink
I also don't want to comment too much but I will say that you should not merely have a 'preference' for 3:2 blackjack, it should be an absolute must. With both tables available, you have no reason to play 6:5, ever. At your betting limits, you should play a stand-on-soft-17 table with surrender and re-split aces such as those found at most of the MGM properties. Check out the blackjack survey linked on the home page of wizardofvegas. But the difference in house edge between these tables and the hit-soft-17 ones are far less than the difference between Regular 3:2 and 6:5 blackjack.

Regarding your craps question, as I am sure you are aware, the dice are completely random on each roll. Saying all you need to do to win the don't pass at craps is to find a table where people are not making points is like saying you just need to find a blackjack table where the dealer busts a lot. It doesn't mean anything. Also, bet hedges are generally a bad idea, especially in craps. Stick to the pass/don't pass/come/don't come and odds and you will cut down the house edge significantly.

Its worth noting as well that after a point is established the don't pass is already in 'positive expectation'. No need to hedge your bet here, your bet is now more likely to win than lose. The reason is it is more likely to roll a 7 or 11 on the come out than a 2, 3, or 12.
pearlyc1
pearlyc1
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November 30th, 2009 at 5:10:22 PM permalink
In crazy 4 poker, can you simply play queens up and not the ante & super bonus?
boymimbo
boymimbo
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December 1st, 2009 at 9:49:34 AM permalink
Quote: Asswhoopermcdaddy

Hello Michael,

Assumptions:
a.) Weak table with really bad shooters ocurring 75% of the time. Bad shooters defined as a person who tends to crap out before making a single point or tends to roll an any crap on the comeout roll.
b.) Table mins are $10.
c.) $50 bet on the Don't Pass Line w/ expectation that you survive the comeout roll ie point or 2, 3, or 12 will be made.
d.) If the point is 6 or 8, $48 place bet is made. If 5 or 9, a $40 place bet is made. If 4 or 10, a $30 place bet is made.
Analysis:
a.) It would appear that upon surviving the come out roll, a positive expectation event occurs by hedging the don't pass line.
b.) Given a weak table with 75% of shooters being unable to make a point, betting against the shooters would be favorable to begin with and hedging the bet after the comeout would eliminate the risk of the shooter making the point.
c.) I remember reading briefly about this type of strategy, with the 3 main flaws being a hot table with a higher probability of 7 and or 11s on the comeout roll, low return even if the point is made hence missing a potential hot shooter, and the inability to predict the trends of the tables.

What are your thoughts on this? I love both of your sites, and want to thank you again for all your insight.



Based on my analysis, your strategy has a house advantage of 2.037%. Based on an average bet per comeout roll of $77.22, you will lose on average $1.57 / pass line result based on your strategy.

You are much better off to take the don't pass with odds and to use the $98 max bankroll to do the don't pass of $15 with $78 (pays $80) odds on the 6-8, $75 odds (pays $75) on the 5-9, and $80 odds (pays $55) on the 4-10. You'll have more volatility, but the house advantage will be down to less than 0.5%, and you will win alot more money if you truly believe that a table is truly "cold".

If you do survive the comeout roll, of course your expectation on don't pass is positive. But it doesn't overcome the 22.2% of comeout rolls that will result in a loss. But there's no point in hedging a don't pass except to lower your expectations overall.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
Asswhoopermcdaddy
Asswhoopermcdaddy
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December 1st, 2009 at 7:46:37 PM permalink
Thank you all for your comments. They are most insightful. As for the craps strategy, you are right in that it is a positive expectation after surviving the comeout roll betting on the Don't Pass. I forgot about that. Perhaps, I should have described it as a guaranteed hedged win assuming you've made it pass the come out.

Also, I've been thinking of the overall game in terms of financial markets. Random walk theory equating more closely to a pure statistical unbias view of craps and adaptive markets behavioral theory equating more to a chartist or biased outcome. At the end of the day, it's just gambling and trying to have a good time.

I had initially wanted to lower the volatility as boymimbo described with only minimal odds taking allowed (wouldn't the payout be better if one bet the Don'ts straight up without odds?). If one could identify a pattern among shooters at a table, from a Don't perspective, what would be the best strategy? Clearly, if the table is hot, then going long or betting the pass with odds makes sense. If the table is cold betting the Don'ts is better. My confusion is the choppy table. Would this strategy be better suited for a choppy 50/50 table of cold and hot; once again with the assumption of survival post-comeout roll?

Purely theoretical of course.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
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December 1st, 2009 at 8:32:49 PM permalink
1. In general, I've found the MGM properties to be the most generous for comps, and the Venetian the least. This goes for all games. In particular, the MGM and Mandalay Bay have treated me very nicely. If you are playing for comps, you should be advised that most places don't include the odds in your average bet. I believe the Venetian is an exception.

2. Mix Lounge at Mandalay Bay.

3. To be honest, I don't like questions like this. First off all, there are no such thing as good or bad shooters. Everyone has the same odds, save maybe for a few skilled shooters. The only place bets I would endorse are on the 6 or 8. Basically just stick to the low house edge bets, how much you bet any why is up to you.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Asswhoopermcdaddy
Asswhoopermcdaddy
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December 2nd, 2009 at 8:34:43 AM permalink
Thank you for your responses again!

Michael to your 3rd point, would a train of thought along the lines of variable change or the Monty Hall problem alter how you approach this or feel about this type of question. In betting on the Don'ts and surviving the come out roll, the edge is your favor of 7-out over making a point. However, this does not preclude the chance of a shooter making the point. True statistically over time and many iterations, law of large numbers, the edge would theoretically manifest itself. Wouldn't the ideal goal at this point be to reduce the volatility and lock in a guaranteed profit by hedging with a place bet than wait for the edge to appear?
boymimbo
boymimbo
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December 2nd, 2009 at 9:14:50 AM permalink
The huge assumption is that the house advantage switches to you in the don't pass after the come out roll. Of course it does. But no hedging system will give you an advantage because of the 13.89% house advantage on the come out roll for don't pass. Place bets on the 6 and 8 carry a 1.52% HA, on the 5 and 9 a 4.00% HA and the 4-10 a 6.67% HA. These bets are cumulative and just add to the overall HA on your betting system so that the house advantage on the don't pass plus your bets are higher than the don't pass alone.

You can't assume that a table will be hot or cold, because it can change at any moment in time.

And that's the beauty of craps. You have people who believe in these systems which makes the game so popular yet there is no way to truly beat the game because the dice rolls are truly random.

In the end, your system is very vulnerable to the 7s and 11s thrown at the come out roll. Once the point is established, you'll be betting 98, 90, and 80 respectively to win $20 at most (when a 7 is thrown before a 10). The problem is that on each come out roll, you are likely to lose $6.94 on a $50 bet. And while you will make an average of $8.06 once the come out roll is established, that only happens in 2 of 3 come out rolls meaning that you will only win on average $5.37 for the expected loss of $1.57 on your total amount bet.

I still think you bring a large enough bankroll to overcome the volatility and use the money to bet $15 on don't pass with full odds on the don't pass.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!

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