Football Bets

Two questions:

Is betting a team -120 @ -3 better than getting even money @ -3' ?

Does an $11 3 team parlay pay more than an $11/10 straight bet parlayed twice?

Quote: CRSthe3rd

Two questions:

Is betting a team -120 @ -3 better than getting even money @ -3' ?

Does an $11 3 team parlay pay more than an $11/10 straight bet parlayed twice?

I think so. According to my sports betting appendix 2, the probability of a margin of victory of 3 is 15.38%. Divide that by 2, and you have a 7.69% chance it will make the difference the side you bet. Let's say the game has a 50/50 chance finishing either way against 3.5, for a 0% house edge. Buying the half point, you now turn 7.69% chance of a loss into a push. So the possible outcomes are:

50.00% win
7.69% push
42.31% loss

Let x be what you would have to risk for the bet to be fair. Then...

[.5x - .4231]/x = 0
.5x = .4231
x=1.182.

So, by that math, you should lay -118. However, I think there is a greater chance of the game landing close to 3 in a game with a point spread of 3.5, than all games. That would make it worth laying more than -118. If given the choice, I would lay the 120 for the half point off of 3.

Regarding the other question, a 3-team parlay pays 6 to 1 everywhere, I believe. If you parlay an 11 to 10 bet by hand three times, then you would get (21/11)^3-1 = 5.96 to 1. So, doing an off the board parlay is the better bet.

Depends if the team in question is the Kansas City Chiefs.

If this is the case, definitely, positively, bet against them, and take the -3.
This also generally applies to the bottom 5 teams in the NFL.

Quote: piratepete

Depends if the team in question is the Kansas City Chiefs.

If this is the case, definitely, positively, bet against them, and take the -3.
This also generally applies to the bottom 5 teams in the NFL.

I disagree. I would rather bet the worst five times in the NFL against the spread than the best five. It is no big secret that betting underdogs is better than betting favorites, historically speaking.