OMFGTHISYI
• Posts: 11
Joined: Apr 29, 2022
April 29th, 2022 at 5:08:53 AM permalink
What the title says. I've tried searching around but can't seem to find an answer if this bet can be counted or not. Maybe that means it can't? Though iI'm not sure, hence why I'm asking. Any advice appreciated, or any other good side bets to count in Baccarat. Thank you!

Edit: Basics of the bet: Bet wins if all of the following happen: (1) Banker has two-card hand of 3 points, (2) Player has two-card of 5 or less points, and (3) Player hand draws an 8. What is special about this situation is it's the only way the Banker can stand on a 3-point hand.

(Thank you, Wizard)
Last edited by: OMFGTHISYI on Apr 29, 2022
billryan
• Posts: 16496
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
April 29th, 2022 at 6:00:47 AM permalink
I find it works better, in the long run, to bet more on winning hands and less on the losing ones.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
odiousgambit
• Posts: 9691
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
April 29th, 2022 at 6:23:16 AM permalink
Quote:

3G8 is an optional wager whereby, if the Banker's hand has 3 points with only two cards and the player's hand is entitled to receive another card, that card being the third card to the player's hand will win if it is an 8 (eight). 3G8 is paid at odds of 200 to 1.

https://www.horizonscasino.com › casino-games › baccarat

we saw two assumptions here ... the OP assuming everybody knows what he is talking about

and another person assuming a newbie must immediately be dissed ... rite of passage, you see

200:1 strikes me as worthy of exam
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
OMFGTHISYI
• Posts: 11
Joined: Apr 29, 2022
April 29th, 2022 at 6:47:05 AM permalink
Assuming everyone knows what they are talking about? I asked a question in a forum of people who may know... if someone knows or has insight, they are welcome to answer lol. Idk what was with that reply before, but I elected to ignore it.

The bet seems lucrative, and I know that some baccarat side bets can be counted, though I couldn't find much info on this one... hence I'm asking.
Dieter
• Posts: 5795
Joined: Jul 23, 2014
April 29th, 2022 at 7:46:03 AM permalink
Summary of 3G8:
Banker's total is 3, player's drawn card is an 8.
(This is how I read it, anyway. Happy to hear clarification.)

Pay is 200:1.

Yes, it probably deserves a look.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/tables/35033-3-giving-8/
May the cards fall in your favor.
ThatDonGuy
• Posts: 6549
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
April 29th, 2022 at 8:05:52 AM permalink
I ran 1 billion hands from an 8-deck show using Hi-Lo, and the closest I could get to a player advantage is about 1/205 - and you need a count of -5 or lower to get anything better than a 1/210 chance of winning, which itself is a house advantage of 4.285%.
unJon
• Posts: 4700
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
April 29th, 2022 at 8:26:56 AM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

I ran 1 billion hands from an 8-deck show using Hi-Lo, and the closest I could get to a player advantage is about 1/205 - and you need a count of -5 or lower to get anything better than a 1/210 chance of winning, which itself is a house advantage of 4.285%.

Hi Lo doesn’t strike me as a good count for this.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
odiousgambit
• Posts: 9691
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
April 29th, 2022 at 9:08:21 AM permalink
Quote: OMFGTHISYI

Assuming everyone knows what they are talking about? ...

you assumed everyone knew what YOU were referring to ... I had to look it up, so I shared it, along with a link. You might take note of that sir

the other remark was an indirect 'way of apology' ... the greeting newbies get, not that here is any different
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
teliot
• Posts: 2871
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
April 29th, 2022 at 9:27:29 AM permalink
Quote: OMFGTHISYI

What the title says. I've tried searching around but can't seem to find an answer if this bet can be counted or not. Maybe that means it can't? Though iI'm not sure, hence why I'm asking. Any advice appreciated, or any other good side bets to count in Baccarat. Thank you!

I'll do this for you. Nothing better to do today. Obviously you want a shoe rich in 8's and poor in 9's. Beyond that I don't know, but I'll report back soon.

Cheers.
Climate Casino: https://climatecasino.net/climate-casino/
teliot
• Posts: 2871
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
Thanked by
April 29th, 2022 at 10:12:20 AM permalink
Okay -- my intuition was once again not great. Of course, a "3" is also a very important card. This bet appears to be extremely exploitable with the 200-to-1 payout, letting the AP win nearly 4 units per 100 hands. Of course, the variance will be crazy high.

The easiest balanced counting system to use is quite intuitive (but not the most accurate). Here it is:

A, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, T, J, Q, K = +1
3 = -3
8 = -8

With this counting system, a simulation of 100M 8-deck shoes, with the cut card at 14 cards, gives:

Trigger true count: 2
Percent of hands with edge: 23.21%
Average edge: 16.94%
Units won per shoe: 3.20
Units won per 100 hands: 3.93
Climate Casino: https://climatecasino.net/climate-casino/
ThatDonGuy
• Posts: 6549
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
April 29th, 2022 at 10:39:06 AM permalink
Using -8 for 8s, -3 for 3s, and +1 for all other cards, a run of 1 billion 8-deck shoes with full penetration and a random burn of 2-11 cards results in a player advantage with a true count of -10 or lower, or an unmodified count of -44 or lower.
teliot
• Posts: 2871
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
April 29th, 2022 at 10:42:46 AM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Using -8 for 8s, -3 for 3s, and +1 for all other cards, a run of 1 billion 8-deck shoes with full penetration and a random burn of 2-11 cards results in a player advantage with a true count of -10 or lower, or an unmodified count of -44 or lower.

Please double check your work. Thanks. At the very least, the trigger TC should be positive. In particular, check that T,J,Q,K all get +1.
Climate Casino: https://climatecasino.net/climate-casino/
ThatDonGuy
• Posts: 6549
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
April 29th, 2022 at 12:17:05 PM permalink
Quote: teliot

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Using -8 for 8s, -3 for 3s, and +1 for all other cards, a run of 1 billion 8-deck shoes with full penetration and a random burn of 2-11 cards results in a player advantage with a true count of -10 or lower, or an unmodified count of -44 or lower.

Please double check your work. Thanks. At the very least, the trigger TC should be positive. In particular, check that T,J,Q,K all get +1.

I was looking at it backwards (and also using 300-1 instead of 200-1).

The actual numbers for a player advantage at 200-1 are:
True Count of +5 or higher (+4 is pretty much even)
Actual Count (with an 8-deck shoe) of +9 or higher (+8 is pretty much even)
teliot
• Posts: 2871
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
April 29th, 2022 at 2:21:15 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Quote: teliot

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Using -8 for 8s, -3 for 3s, and +1 for all other cards, a run of 1 billion 8-deck shoes with full penetration and a random burn of 2-11 cards results in a player advantage with a true count of -10 or lower, or an unmodified count of -44 or lower.

Please double check your work. Thanks. At the very least, the trigger TC should be positive. In particular, check that T,J,Q,K all get +1.

I was looking at it backwards (and also using 300-1 instead of 200-1).

The actual numbers for a player advantage at 200-1 are:
True Count of +5 or higher (+4 is pretty much even)
Actual Count (with an 8-deck shoe) of +9 or higher (+8 is pretty much even)

Yes -- I think +4 sounds right. I am going to double check my own code ...

In the mean time -- you said "full penetration." I have the cut card at 14 cards and use the burn-card rule that the first card burned determines the number of additional cards to be burned (T/J/Q/K mean 10 more cards to burn). Do you have the cut card at 14 cards?
Climate Casino: https://climatecasino.net/climate-casino/
Wizard
• Posts: 26842
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
April 29th, 2022 at 2:49:45 PM permalink
Basics:

Bet wins if all of the following happen: (1) Banker has two-card hand of 3 points, (2) Player has two-card of 5 or less points, and (3) Player hand draws an 8. What is special about this situation is it's the only way the Banker can stand on a 3-point hand.

I show a probability of winning of 0.004543171
and an EV of -0.086822658

I've heard of some other casino offering this bet at 180 to 1, which decreases the EV to -0.177686075.

"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
OMFGTHISYI
• Posts: 11
Joined: Apr 29, 2022
April 29th, 2022 at 3:02:53 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: OMFGTHISYI

Assuming everyone knows what they are talking about? ...

you assumed everyone knew what YOU were referring to ... I had to look it up, so I shared it, along with a link. You might take note of that sir

the other remark was an indirect 'way of apology' ... the greeting newbies get, not that here is any different

Ohh sorry. I misinterpreted what you were saying. Tbf I only expected people who knew what the bet was to reply, and people who didn't to ignore it. Though I appreciate those who looked into it without knowing before hand, I'll put more context in the original post. Cheers.
teliot
• Posts: 2871
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
April 29th, 2022 at 3:08:44 PM permalink
Quote: OMFGTHISYI

Tbf I only expected people who knew what the bet was to reply, and people who didn't to ignore it.

I would suggest you examine the UR Way Egalite bet, if you are in the UK. I have an article on counting it, as well as many other baccarat side bets, here:

I am not sure what is going on with my analysis of this bet -- something seems off in my sim (since I am getting a trigger tC of +2 and I think it should be about +4). But, I can't find a bug anywhere. But, certainly you can use the count system I pointed out above, if you have a lot of patience and sufficient bankroll to handle huge swings.
Climate Casino: https://climatecasino.net/climate-casino/
OMFGTHISYI
• Posts: 11
Joined: Apr 29, 2022
April 29th, 2022 at 3:13:03 PM permalink
Quote: teliot

Okay -- my intuition was once again not great. Of course, a "3" is also a very important card. This bet appears to be extremely exploitable with the 200-to-1 payout, letting the AP win nearly 4 units per 100 hands. Of course, the variance will be crazy high.

The easiest balanced counting system to use is quite intuitive (but not the most accurate). Here it is:

A, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, T, J, Q, K = +1
3 = -3
8 = -8

With this counting system, a simulation of 100M 8-deck shoes, with the cut card at 14 cards, gives:

Trigger true count: 2
Percent of hands with edge: 23.21%
Average edge: 16.94%
Units won per shoe: 3.20
Units won per 100 hands: 3.93

Wow, thank you for that... forgive me if I again sound like a total newbie. But like, is there a way to verify this would work, aside from me just walking into a casino and risking my money? Thank you for your answer, and for creating this! I really do appreciate it.

Out of curiosity, what would be more accurate?
OMFGTHISYI
• Posts: 11
Joined: Apr 29, 2022
April 29th, 2022 at 3:17:21 PM permalink
Quote: teliot

Quote: OMFGTHISYI

Tbf I only expected people who knew what the bet was to reply, and people who didn't to ignore it.

I would suggest you examine the UR Way Egalite bet, if you are in the UK. I have an article on counting it, as well as many other baccarat side bets, here:

/baccarat-side-bets/

I am not sure what is going on with my analysis of this bet -- something seems off in my sim (since I am getting a trigger tC of +2 and I think it should be about +4). But, I can't find a bug anywhere. But, certainly you can use the count system I pointed out above, if you have a lot of patience and sufficient bankroll to handle huge swings.

Oh, I have read this article actually! Yes the UR way Egalite bet was of interest to me. Though my problem is I don't really have a team of people I can count it with, even if its just 2 more. I read about it in the advanced advantage play book. Can you still count it on your own, if you just pick one of the numbers?

Cheers.
ssho88
• Posts: 669
Joined: Oct 16, 2011
April 29th, 2022 at 3:21:15 PM permalink
Quote: OMFGTHISYI

Quote: teliot

Okay -- my intuition was once again not great. Of course, a "3" is also a very important card. This bet appears to be extremely exploitable with the 200-to-1 payout, letting the AP win nearly 4 units per 100 hands. Of course, the variance will be crazy high.

The easiest balanced counting system to use is quite intuitive (but not the most accurate). Here it is:

A, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, T, J, Q, K = +1
3 = -3
8 = -8

With this counting system, a simulation of 100M 8-deck shoes, with the cut card at 14 cards, gives:

Trigger true count: 2
Percent of hands with edge: 23.21%
Average edge: 16.94%
Units won per shoe: 3.20
Units won per 100 hands: 3.93

Wow, thank you for that... forgive me if I again sound like a total newbie. But like, is there a way to verify this would work, aside from me just walking into a casino and risking my money? Thank you for your answer, and for creating this! I really do appreciate it.

Out of curiosity, what would be more accurate?

8 deck, play until last 14 cards(81.2 hands/shoe), 1 pay 200(HE = -8.6822658%), simulation results :-

a) Counting system : unbalanced simple running count system, tags from Ace to T(+1, +1, -3, +1, +1, +2, +2, -10, +2, +1).
b) ev/shoe = 3.85 unit(flat bet)
c) bet frequency/shoe= 21.4 rounds
d) average ev(%) = +18%
e) variance = 239
f) Bet when RC >= 33(I did an analysis eight years ago but didn't have a chance to play it, this is the first time I share this RC TRIGGER VALUE with everyone.)

You will strike once for every 170 rounds of betting.

It is a high variance game and good luck !
Last edited by: ssho88 on Apr 29, 2022
ThatDonGuy
• Posts: 6549
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
April 29th, 2022 at 3:28:34 PM permalink
Quote: teliot

In the mean time -- you said "full penetration." I have the cut card at 14 cards and use the burn-card rule that the first card burned determines the number of additional cards to be burned (T/J/Q/K mean 10 more cards to burn). Do you have the cut card at 14 cards?

No - I deal all the way down to when there are fewer than 6 cards at the start of the hand. I do use the burn-card rule to determine how many come off the top.
teliot
• Posts: 2871
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
April 29th, 2022 at 3:48:58 PM permalink
Quote: ssho88

Quote: OMFGTHISYI

Quote: teliot

Okay -- my intuition was once again not great. Of course, a "3" is also a very important card. This bet appears to be extremely exploitable with the 200-to-1 payout, letting the AP win nearly 4 units per 100 hands. Of course, the variance will be crazy high.

The easiest balanced counting system to use is quite intuitive (but not the most accurate). Here it is:

A, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, T, J, Q, K = +1
3 = -3
8 = -8

With this counting system, a simulation of 100M 8-deck shoes, with the cut card at 14 cards, gives:

Trigger true count: 2
Percent of hands with edge: 23.21%
Average edge: 16.94%
Units won per shoe: 3.20
Units won per 100 hands: 3.93

Wow, thank you for that... forgive me if I again sound like a total newbie. But like, is there a way to verify this would work, aside from me just walking into a casino and risking my money? Thank you for your answer, and for creating this! I really do appreciate it.

Out of curiosity, what would be more accurate?

8 deck, play until last 14 cards(81.2 hands/shoe), 1 pay 200(HE = -8.6822658%), simulation results :-

a) Counting system : unbalanced simple running count system, tags from Ace to T(+1, +1, -3, +1, +1, +2, +2, -10, +2, +1).
b) ev/shoe = 3.85 unit(flat bet)
c) bet frequency/shoe= 21.4 rounds
d) average ev(%) = +18%
e) variance = 239
f) Bet when RC >= 33

You will strike once for every 170 rounds of betting.

It is a high variance game and good luck !

Ok -- this is fully consistent with my EV with a balanced count. Thanks!
Climate Casino: https://climatecasino.net/climate-casino/
teliot
• Posts: 2871
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
April 29th, 2022 at 4:05:25 PM permalink
I would never play a game with this variance without a team to get lots of rounds. You could easily go 500 bets without winning, even given you have the edge.
Last edited by: teliot on Apr 29, 2022
Climate Casino: https://climatecasino.net/climate-casino/
Dieter
• Posts: 5795
Joined: Jul 23, 2014
April 29th, 2022 at 4:51:50 PM permalink
... and be mindful of any maximum aggregate payout notice.
May the cards fall in your favor.
OMFGTHISYI
• Posts: 11
Joined: Apr 29, 2022
April 30th, 2022 at 5:15:51 AM permalink
So when you say you will strike once for every 170 rounds of betting, would this be every 170 rounds of just betting on the side bet when the count is high, or just in general?

Cheers.
ssho88
• Posts: 669
Joined: Oct 16, 2011
April 30th, 2022 at 5:35:53 AM permalink
You only bet when the count is high(+EV).
Dieter
• Posts: 5795
Joined: Jul 23, 2014
April 30th, 2022 at 7:17:32 AM permalink
Quote: OMFGTHISYI

So when you say you will strike once for every 170 rounds of betting, would this be every 170 rounds of just betting on the side bet when the count is high, or just in general?

Cheers.

I understand it to mean that you will bet one or two hands per shoe - maybe - and very occasionally, one will pay off.
May the cards fall in your favor.
ssho88
• Posts: 669
Joined: Oct 16, 2011
Thanked by
April 30th, 2022 at 7:52:52 AM permalink
Quote: OMFGTHISYI

So when you say you will strike once for every 170 rounds of betting, would this be every 170 rounds of just betting on the side bet when the count is high, or just in general?

Cheers.

You will bet about 21.4 rounds(with high count) in a shoe( 8 deck dealt until last 14 cards), so you will strike ONCE every 8 shoe play.
OMFGTHISYI
• Posts: 11
Joined: Apr 29, 2022
May 7th, 2022 at 5:44:53 PM permalink
Quote: teliot

Quote: OMFGTHISYI

Tbf I only expected people who knew what the bet was to reply, and people who didn't to ignore it.

I would suggest you examine the UR Way Egalite bet, if you are in the UK. I have an article on counting it, as well as many other baccarat side bets, here:

/baccarat-side-bets/

I am not sure what is going on with my analysis of this bet -- something seems off in my sim (since I am getting a trigger tC of +2 and I think it should be about +4). But, I can't find a bug anywhere. But, certainly you can use the count system I pointed out above, if you have a lot of patience and sufficient bankroll to handle huge swings.

I have been investigating the UR way egalite bet more, and I noticed in your book you mention the players edge is lower if 28 cards are cut instead of 14. My question is do these bets stop becoming viable to count if a certain amount of cards are cut?

I ask because I played baccarat at a casino recently and they let me place the cut card, and I think i put it in to cut just over a deck (wasnt trying to count in this case), but im worried they wouldnt let me cut much more than that as they did warn there is sort of a limit on how far back you can place the cut card.

Thank you.
Dieter
• Posts: 5795
Joined: Jul 23, 2014
May 7th, 2022 at 6:50:35 PM permalink
Quote: OMFGTHISYI

I have been investigating the UR way egalite bet more, and I noticed in your book you mention the players edge is lower if 28 cards are cut instead of 14. My question is do these bets stop becoming viable to count if a certain amount of cards are cut?

I ask because I played baccarat at a casino recently and they let me place the cut card, and I think i put it in to cut just over a deck (wasnt trying to count in this case), but im worried they wouldnt let me cut much more than that as they did warn there is sort of a limit on how far back you can place the cut card.

Thank you.

I think there may be some confusion on what "cut" can mean.

I believe the 14 or 28 means the deal penetration; the deck minus 14 (or 28) cards is played before the cards are shuffled. The 14 (or 28) cards remain unseen, whether they are discarded from the top of the deck or undealt from the stub once the cut card is exposed.

Where you start playing in a well shuffled deck probably matters very little.
May the cards fall in your favor.
OMFGTHISYI
• Posts: 11
Joined: Apr 29, 2022
May 8th, 2022 at 4:18:57 AM permalink
Ahh right, so the cut card doesn't really make that much of a difference then?
Dieter
• Posts: 5795
Joined: Jul 23, 2014
May 8th, 2022 at 4:39:33 AM permalink
Quote: OMFGTHISYI

Ahh right, so the cut card doesn't really make that much of a difference then?

"Cutting the deck" - dividing the shuffled cards, and placing the bottom section on the top - is done to demonstrate that the cards are fairly shuffled. This negates stacking the deck*, using a prearranged sequence of cards.

Deal penetration - deciding how much of the deck is to be dealt before the cards are shuffled - can have a great effect on how accurately effects of removal may be predicted. This is normally done by the dealer, by counting a certain number of cards from the bottom of the deck, and placing a "cut card" to indicate that no more rounds should be dealt. The burn procedure also affects deal penetration if the cards are discarded unseen.

TLDR version: No. Cutting thin to win or deep to weep doesn't help you or hurt you, and the baccarat burn procedure generally negates precision cutting hinky business.

Best of luck.

Yeah, I know about that thing in New Jersey from a while back, and that cutting wouldn't have changed it. You do need to shuffle the cards.

edit: link to that thing in New Jersey
May the cards fall in your favor.
OMFGTHISYI
• Posts: 11
Joined: Apr 29, 2022
May 8th, 2022 at 5:09:03 AM permalink
Dieter
• Posts: 5795
Joined: Jul 23, 2014
May 8th, 2022 at 5:42:21 AM permalink
Quote: OMFGTHISYI

These are not recommended questions for a phone call. These questions may make the casino think you are trying to cheat them by analyzing weaknesses in their game procedures.

Common procedures are for the dealer to count a 6 to 8 card stub at the back, and to do a multi card burn at the beginning. This usually means around 14-18 unseen cards.

https://youtu.be/5kVOZ1oqI8s
This video may be helpful if you are unfamiliar with table procedures. Baccarat is around 25 minutes in.

edit: gee whiz, they're paranoid. A half deck stub is ridiculous for baccarat, costing at least 4 rounds per shuffle.
May the cards fall in your favor.
Ace2
• Posts: 2706
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
May 8th, 2022 at 1:43:13 PM permalink
For infinite deck the edge is:

1 - 105 * 16 / 13^5 * 201 = 9.05%

Close enough to 8.68% and without running through 4,998,398,275,503,360 permutations of six cards drawn from eight decks
It’s all about making that GTA
DRich