TinMan
TinMan
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MrCasinoGames
August 1st, 2021 at 9:18:05 AM permalink
I think this would be useful for many people and (I assume) relatively easy to program: a calculator for expected long-term loss per hour. For example, the easiest case might be baccarat: the inputs would be: average bet, and banker/player/tie. The calculator could EITHER then assume a number of hands per hour (probably reasonable to do for baccarat) or for some games (like VP), the user could either select a number of hands per hour or have a drop down with rough estimates based on fast/average/slow. It might not be precise because number of hands per hour could vary but it would give a sense of expected long term loss per hour at the casino. If you wanted to get more complicated, the bets and sizes could be multi-entry values so the expected hourly loss accounts for all bets (eg, you know that you always bet $10 in 3CP plus $1 on the pair plus). For games with player decisions, either assume perfect basic strategy or maybe have a drop down (eg in a game like blackjack) for perfect basic strategy, and rough estimates for average and poor). Just a thought. I know nothing about programming so this might be more complicated than I assume. And I realize that it would likely be harder for some games (every bet in craps) than others (baccarat)
If anyone gives you 10,000 to 1 on anything, you take it. If John Mellencamp ever wins an Oscar, I am going to be a very rich dude.
Wizard
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Wizard
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August 1st, 2021 at 5:02:35 PM permalink
Thanks for the suggestion, but the math would be too trivial. Expected loss per hour is simply (average base bet)*(house edge)*(hands per hour). I provide the second two elements on my site.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
unJon
unJon
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August 1st, 2021 at 5:25:40 PM permalink
I think it would get traffic and use. Add a space where someone can add their bankroll for the game and the calculator can also calculate the probability of busting and show a chart of the distribution of their potential outcomes (nice bell curve!).
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Wizard
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Wizard
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MrCasinoGamesTinMan
August 1st, 2021 at 5:26:56 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

I think it would get traffic and use. Add a space where someone can add their bankroll for the game and the calculator can also calculate the probability of busting and show a chart of the distribution of their potential outcomes (nice bell curve!).



The bell curve is not a bad idea.

Plus, I've found the simplest pages tend to get the best traffic. I'll put that on my "to do" list, which is quite long.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
ksdjdj
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August 1st, 2021 at 5:44:32 PM permalink
Quote: TinMan

I think this would be useful for many people and (I assume) relatively easy to program: a calculator for expected long-term loss per hour. For example, the easiest case might be baccarat: the inputs would be: average bet, and banker/player/tie. The calculator could EITHER then assume a number of hands per hour (probably reasonable to do for baccarat) or for some games (like VP), the user could either select a number of hands per hour or have a drop down with rough estimates based on fast/average/slow ... (snip)


Below are some links to a site I have used a lot in the past, for this sort of stuff:

http://www.beatingbonuses.com/calc.htm
http://www.beatingbonuses.com/calc_speed.htm (similar to the calculator above, except it gives you a "hands per hour" box you can input the relevant data in, and then spits out an "hours of play" estimate)
http://www.beatingbonuses.com/simulator_java.htm (I can only use the "old simulator", so I don't know anything about this one).
http://www.beatingbonuses.com/simulator.htm (the "old simulator")

Caution: At least on my pc, the website only works using http, so you will probably get a "black not secure" warning (see below for more details, of what that can mean)

https://support.google.com/chrome/answer/95617?visit_id=637634608434490779-2315001378&p=ui_security_indicator&rd=1#zippy=%2Cnot-secure-or-dangerous

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Update (about 5:56 pm, Pac time):

I don't think you asked in the OP, but if you find a game with a straight up player edge, you just have to treat it as a "(negative) house edge" when you type in the relevant box. Eg an estimated player edge of 1% would need to be written like this, type "-1" in the "House Edge (%):" box.

Note: This is relevant for the "...calc" and the "...calc_speed" links
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