ddsdoni
ddsdoni
Joined: May 15, 2017
  • Threads: 6
  • Posts: 12
June 26th, 2021 at 12:06:15 AM permalink
Hello everyone,

I play a Blackjack game with a house edge of 0.551%. Assuming flat betting 1 unit and a total bankroll of 10 units, what is the chance of having a winning session if my target is to reach 15 units before losing it all?

I'm a big fan of Wizard's C++ and Excel videos so would love to see a video on how to simulate this or something similar.

Thank you in advance
OnceDear
Administrator
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
  • Threads: 51
  • Posts: 6141
Thanks for this post from:
ddsdoni
June 26th, 2021 at 2:22:09 AM permalink
Quote: ddsdoni

Hello everyone,

I play a Blackjack game with a house edge of 0.551%. Assuming flat betting 1 unit and a total bankroll of 10 units, what is the chance of having a winning session if my target is to reach 15 units before losing it all?

I'm a big fan of Wizard's C++ and Excel videos so would love to see a video on how to simulate this or something similar.

Thank you in advance

For such a low house edge game, you can estimate the probability using OnceDear's rule of thumb

If you go to the table with the intention of either winning 50% of your bankroll, or losing it all then

Probability of success <= 10/(10+5) = 67%

Slight adjustment downward because your last hand might take you over target because of a blackjack 3:2 payout.
Another slight adjustment downward because you expose your wagers (and so your bankroll) to the house edge many times as some wins cancel some losses.
But it's in that ball park. about 60 - 66%
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
ddsdoni
ddsdoni
Joined: May 15, 2017
  • Threads: 6
  • Posts: 12
June 26th, 2021 at 5:13:32 AM permalink
Awesome thank you so much. I feel a bit silly in hindsight I didn't know it was that simple to work out
OnceDear
Administrator
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
  • Threads: 51
  • Posts: 6141
June 26th, 2021 at 5:50:24 AM permalink
Quote: ddsdoni

Awesome thank you so much. I feel a bit silly in hindsight I didn't know it was that simple to work out

Mine was a super simplification based on zero house edge. There are proper formulae to take account of house edge, but they involve standard deviation and other complexities. My intent was to show in a simple way why progressive systems can SEEM to work where you are LIKELY to get ahead a few percent. But try to repeat those little low profit goal sessions to get a meaningful profit, and you are soon doomed to getting wiped out.
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.

  • Jump to: