I was hoping you guys could help me understand the Wizard's card counting advice for baccarat. Here is what confuses me: As he notes, high cards are good for the Player and low cards are good for the Banker. As such, why would it be better to bet on the Player when the count is -4 or lower, given that you minus 1 from the count when high cards (5-8) are dealt? Shouldn't the Player become a favourite when the count is positive instead of negative, since this would mean that more low cards than high cards have left the shoe?

I'm sure I'm just misunderstanding, but any help would be much appreciated.

Here is my article on it:Quote:J13Hi all!

I was hoping you guys could help me understand the Wizard's card counting advice for baccarat. Here is what confuses me: As he notes, high cards are good for the Player and low cards are good for the Banker. As such, why would it be better to bet on the Player when the count is -4 or lower, given that you minus 1 from the count when high cards (5-8) are dealt? Shouldn't the Player become a favourite when the count is positive instead of negative, since this would mean that more low cards than high cards have left the shoe?

I'm sure I'm just misunderstanding, but any help would be much appreciated.

https://www.888casino.com/blog/baccarat-tips/card-counting-in-baccarat

Here is my video on it:

https://youtu.be/tYQk7hZ_jAU

Thanks, with the permission of 888, I re-posted the article on my website:Quote:J13Thanks Eliot, that video is really enlightening! Unfortunately, I can't access the article -- 888 casino can't be accessed in Australia without a VPN. Is the material published anywhere else? Thanks again!

https://advancedadvantageplay.com/2021/05/29/why-baccarat-card-counting-sucks/

A) BANKER BET

1)Strategy : Computer Perfect play

2) Bet size : Adjust according to current EV & Var, KELLY RATIO = 1, Fixed Bankroll = $1,000,000.

3) Average EV* = 1.35%

4) Rounds/shoe = 0.29

5) Total Winning/shoe = $24.14

6) The earliest round(with +ve EV) occurs in round no 63

B) PLAYER BET

1)Strategy : Computer Perfect play

2) Bet size : Adjust according to current EV & Var, KELLY RATIO = 1, Fixed Bankroll = $1,000,000.

3) Average EV* = 1.87%

4) Rounds/shoe = 0.24

5) Total Winning/shoe = $34.25

6) The earliest round(with +ve EV) occurs in round no 60

C) TIE BET(1 PAY 8)

1) Strategy : Computer Perfect play

2) Bet size : Adjust according to current EV & Var, KELLY RATIO = 1, Fixed Bankroll = $1,000,000.

3) Average EV* = 9.58%

4) Rounds/shoe = 0.26

5) Total Winning/shoe = $178.51

6) The earliest round(with +ve EV) occurs in round no 68

D) TIE BET(1 PAY 9)

1) Strategy : Computer Perfect play

2) Bet size : Adjust according to current EV & Var, KELLY RATIO = 1, Fixed Bankroll = $1,000,000.

3) Average EV* = 7.63%

4) Rounds/shoe = 2.58

5) Total Winning/shoe = $794.64

6) The earliest round(with +ve EV) occurs in round no 36

If you bet on 20 tables(online games) at the same time with the help of computer, your total winning/shoe = 20 * (24.14 + 34.25 + 178.51 ) = $4738, So worth to play ?

Pleaae note that Computer Perfect play only applicable for online casinos.

* Average EV = Total winning per shoe /Total Betting amount per shoe

Yep, it really is sad.

I have my own perfect play article that maximizes win-rate to get a limit on what's possible.

https://www.888casino.com/blog/baccarat-tips/computer-perfect-play-against-baccarat

I reposted my article on computer-perfect baccarat play for those who can't connect to 888.Quote:teliotI understand you are using perfect Kelly betting for this simulation. Even then, on a more typical $50k bankroll the win rate is about $1/shoe for the Banker and $1.50/shoe for the Player. Given that a shoe lasts about 90 minutes, you're talking under $2/hour with a $50k bankroll and computer-perfect Player/Banker betting.

Yep, it really is sad.

I have my own perfect play article that maximizes win-rate to get a limit on what's possible.

https://www.888casino.com/blog/baccarat-tips/computer-perfect-play-against-baccarat

https://advancedadvantageplay.com/2021/05/30/computer-perfect-baccarat-play/