Bucky
Bucky
Joined: Dec 11, 2019
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May 26th, 2021 at 6:51:28 PM permalink
My local casino has a promotion each month that players get a free ace coupon that can be used up to $25. You can try again on a push. So, I used the blackjack calculator to see if I could get an expected return for my 25 bucks,

I came up with $20 on the average at an 80% rate. From as low as 66% when the dealers first card is an ace to 93% when he has a 6.

The trickiest part was to factor in pushes when the dealer gets a black jack at the same time I do.

Do my calculations feel about right or am I a little strong on my end?
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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May 27th, 2021 at 4:05:26 AM permalink
Quote: Bucky

My local casino has a promotion each month that players get a free ace coupon that can be used up to $25. You can try again on a push. So, I used the blackjack calculator to see if I could get an expected return for my 25 bucks,

I came up with $20 on the average at an 80% rate. From as low as 66% when the dealers first card is an ace to 93% when he has a 6.

The trickiest part was to factor in pushes when the dealer gets a black jack at the same time I do.

Do my calculations feel about right or am I a little strong on my end?



Is the free ace your first card? Can you use the free ace after you have been dealt one card? Can you use the free ace after you have been dealt two cards as a double down card? Etc....
Bucky
Bucky
Joined: Dec 11, 2019
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May 27th, 2021 at 4:28:28 PM permalink
Yes, the free Ace is your first card so, your coupon is there and you do not actually get dealt a card from the dealer the first time through. Then the second time through you get a card. You can double down or split if you would get another Ace.
mcallister3200
mcallister3200
Joined: Dec 29, 2013
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May 27th, 2021 at 4:35:31 PM permalink
Itís worth just over 50% or 150%. Wiz has an article on wizard of odds titled something like ďvalue of a free ace.Ē

I know itís $25 but Grosjean has an article about the optimal kelly bet size and itís just over 42% of your bankroll, at which point he extends the article to 14 pages in only a way he can by speaking in math for about 10 pages of obscure situational basic strategy changes based on the massive bet size.
Bucky
Bucky
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May 27th, 2021 at 6:01:58 PM permalink
Thanks, I will look for it. The promo must be an ice breaker to get a few players to try a little black jack?
Dieter
Administrator
Dieter 
Joined: Jul 23, 2014
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May 27th, 2021 at 6:23:42 PM permalink
Quote: Bucky


The trickiest part was to factor in pushes when the dealer gets a black jack at the same time I do.


Quote: Bucky


You can try again on a push.



The second part would seem to make it much easier.
This site suggests 50%.

Play it for $25 (not less); a CSM or fresh shuffle is modestly preferable.
May the cards fall in your favor.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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May 28th, 2021 at 9:53:00 AM permalink
Quote: Bucky

Thanks, I will look for it. The promo must be an ice breaker to get a few players to try a little black jack?



Of course. It is worth around $12 to you. They are guessing that on average you will lose more than that $12 in subsequent bets. Itís not enough to get anyone to go to the casino that wasnít going, but if you were going anyway take the free $$.

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