Should I be suspicious?

Playing online blackjack and had some very unfortunate results... Here's the background:

So, Pokerstars/Foxbet (Pennsylvania licensed) had what looked to be a fairly straight forward and easy-to-beat casino deposit bonus for first time customers. I deposited the maximum $1000 which entitled me to receive $1 in bonus cash for every $25 wagered, with no limitations on which game I could utilize. I chose their BJ game which has the following rules:

6-deck infinite shuffle
Stand S17
BJ 3/2
Split once
DAS
LS

I began by wagering all 5 available spots at $5 dollars per round, but ended up reducing my bets to 1 hand at $10 per round. I would estimate that my average initial wager for the entire venture was between $10 - $15 per round. I play perfect basic strategy without exception.

After wagering $12,500 (which completed the playthrough requirement) at the aforementioned average bet, my final account balance stands at $110. Effect loss of $1390.

Should I be suspicous?

I have ~1000 hands of play history which I was able to grab from the site.

Quote: BAOVN1987

Playing online blackjack and had some very unfortunate results... Here's the background:

So, Pokerstars/Foxbet (Pennsylvania licensed) had what looked to be a fairly straight forward and easy-to-beat casino deposit bonus for first time customers. I deposited the maximum $1000 which entitled me to receive $1 in bonus cash for every $25 wagered, with no limitations on which game I could utilize. I chose their BJ game which has the following rules:

6-deck infinite shuffle
Stand S17
BJ 3/2
Split once
DAS
LS

I began by wagering all 5 available spots at $5 dollars per round, but ended up reducing my bets to 1 hand at $10 per round. I would estimate that my average initial wager for the entire venture was between $10 - $15 per round. I play perfect basic strategy without exception.

After wagering $12,500 (which completed the playthrough requirement) at the aforementioned average bet, my final account balance stands at $110. Effect loss of $1390.

Should I be suspicous?

Yes? Gotta be a few standard deviations below expectations. But not in the impossible range for a fair game.

Quote: BAOVN1987

After wagering $12,500 (which completed the playthrough requirement) at the aforementioned average bet, my final account balance stands at $110. Effect loss of $1390.

Should I be suspicous?

Was the game from some particular brand? Playtech, Realistic, Etc? Did you have to download something or did it play in a browser window?
Were any of your bets much bigger, such as if you went on tilt or martingaled?

If not, it sounds either extremely unlucky, or suspicious.
It's odd to have such a low wagering requirement applied with 100% contribution from Blackjack. Too generous by far.

Quote: OnceDear

Was the game from some particular brand? Playtech, Realistic, Etc? Did you have to download something or did it play in a browser window?
Were any of your bets much bigger, such as if you went on tilt or martingaled?

If not, it sounds either extremely unlucky, or suspicious.
It's odd to have such a low wagering requirement applied with 100% contribution from Blackjack. Too generous by far.

I do believe that's a U.S.state gaming regulated online casino.

Unfortunately, I've noticed the same entities that were once (and possibly still do) running the unregulated sites at one time still seem to be the people behind the scenes running it for the state. I'm mostly confident the games are fair however I wouldn't be totally shocked or surprised to find out that wasn't the case. If it where somehow gaffed they would probably just say it was some type of programming error and it would pretty much just get swept under the rug after some fine where they might have to give back a certain amount of money to all the players. They would probably just use that to their advantage and run some type of promotion where they would give back the money to anyone and everyone.

So...555 wins and 694 losses at $10/hand?
Seems like quadruple the 35 hands you could have lost on a square root of 1250 hands.

did you surrender on 16 and 15 when necessary?

From the bottom of their site:

"Copyright © 2001-2020 Rational Intellectual Holdings Limited. All rights reserved. TSG Interactive US Services Limited is the internet gaming and sports wagering operator of Mount Airy Casino Resort, 312 Woodland Road, Mt. Pocono, PA 18344, authorized and regulated by the Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board. iGaming license number: IG-109344-1. Sports license number: 109344-2."

My total action was $12,745 over 983 hands. So ~$13 dollar average bet.

It was actually their "premium" version which has the same rules I originally listed, but uses 4 decks shuffled after each round.

I don't make basic strategy mistakes -ever- and there was no tilt/martingaling whatsoever.

No. Your results aren't remotely suspicious.

Quote: sabre

No. Your results aren't remotely suspicious.

Thank you for taking the time to respond to my thread. I understand that providing any other information (considering I didn't explicitly request additional information, of course) that might be helpful or reassuring would be totally beneath you. Going forward, it could be even less helpful and even more condescending if you just simply used a single "No." reply rather than waste the precious extra second to add a fancy word like "remotely". I'm not sure where bozo's like me come from with these stupid questions about obvious stuff that only dummies would think but on behalf of all of us, really sorry for constantly dragging you away from the "big boy discussions" and FORCING you to field these asinine questions about nonsense.

double

That 6 deck infinite shuffle is bringing you down. There's no room for a positive count.

Quote: BAOVN1987

(snip)
After wagering $12,500 (which completed the playthrough requirement) at the aforementioned average bet, my final account balance stands at $110. Effect loss of $1390.

Should I be suspicous?

It is always good to be cautious and ask questions, but from the info provided it looks like you just had a very "bad run" (- variance session).

Edit/Update (about 450 am): If you decide to continue playing at that casino then you should keep a log / diary of each session. Personally, I would go from "cautious" to "very suspicious" if the same results (or worse) happened 3-4 deposits in a row.

Quote: BAOVN1987

(snip)
My total action was $12,745 over 983 hands. So ~$13 dollar average bet.

It was actually their "premium" version which has the same rules I originally listed, but uses 4 decks shuffled after each round.

I don't make basic strategy mistakes -ever- and there was no tilt/martingaling whatsoever.

If you were betting $13 as your initial bet every hand, then I get 1/500 chance*** of losing $1,390^^^.

***: It is probably a bit less than 1/500, because I was using 1.08 as the standard deviation (SD) per wager, and I think the SD may be closer to 1.06 per wager for the game you described.

^^^: The chance of losing $1500 would have been around 1/1400. FYI

Quote: ksdjdj

It is always good to be cautious and ask questions, but from the info provided it looks like you just had a very "bad run" (- variance session).

Edit/Update (about 450 am): If you decide to continue playing at that casino then you should keep a log / diary of each session. Personally, I would go from "cautious" to "very suspicious" if the same results (or worse) happened 3-4 deposits in a row.


If you were betting $13 as your initial bet every hand, then I get 1/500 chance*** of losing $1,390^^^.

***: It is probably a bit less than 1/500, because I was using 1.08 as the standard deviation (SD) per wager, and I think the SD may be closer to 1.06 per wager for the game you described.

^^^: The chance of losing $1500 would have been around 1/1400. FYI

i have a video of a very bad session from PS BJ hes speaking about trying to find it now

double... again.

The only way I would continue playing is if they offer me an additional deposit bonus of the some kind. The rational part of my brain which firmly believes that no state licensed casino would risk everything to cheat customers out of a 1-time-use deposit bonus would definitely win out.

Let me ask you though... Does the fact that the bonus was paid incrementally ($1 cash paid for every $25 wagered) change the picture significantly in regards to risk of a loss like this? I I usually see these bonuses paid in a lump sum after completing the wagering requirement.

After this post, this account will be disabled by request... thanks for everyones help. I'll view any replies, but won't be responding further.

Quote: BAOVN1987

(snip)
Let me ask you though... Does the fact that the bonus was paid incrementally ($1 cash paid for every $25 wagered) change the picture significantly in regards to risk of a loss like this? I I usually see these bonuses paid in a lump sum after completing the wagering requirement.

IMO, it is not significant at the $13 per round average you were betting (of course, getting the whole bonus up front is always preferable, if all the other t & c's are the same).

I have played at Fox a couple of times. I did the $500 bonus as well. It's a good promo. I ran so bad. I could not win a hand but I was betting larger and I'm sure it was within the parameters of variance. I lost not only the deposit but also subsequent deposits just to get the $500 credit. Another time I ran a $100 bonus up to about $1200 (big bets, maybe 3 x $25 or something) The playthrough was outrageous though. Something like 400x I think. Well about 90% through I leveled off. Maybe 5 x $6 or something. I dropped probably $600 in 40 rounds. I think then I just went to maybe one hand of $25. It was so bad. I ended up only about $100. There was a streak where I calculated I lost 25 out of 27 hands. Certainly possible but suspect. I requested the hand history. It was emailed to me and surprise surprise couldn't access it, just got error messages. A few months later I played again and lost as well. I haven't played since. Mostly cause there are no more bonuses. I don't know the software. I haven't seen it anywhere else.

I play a lot online. Shit will drive you crazy. Do I think it's rigged? Probably not. But there are definitely places where I always seem to have better success and places where I always seem to lose. There are also the particular games that have uncanny repeatable characteristics. I'm sure it's just selective memory. What I do know is for the amount of the bonuses that I receive, I certainly don't feel that I am at expectation. Again could be selective memory. No doubt I have had some big wins as well.

I will say this. Read the rules. They do not say it's random. They say every hand is independent. That I believe. But it doesn't say every card has an equal chance of coming out. Everyone knows when you get 4 to a royal, you have a fair 1/47 chance of getting it. I'm not sure about online. My personal theory - they say its not an RNG but a pseudo RNG. That doesn't answer how a card is chosen. So my theory is that the game is programmed with not random cards out of 6 decks but rather several hundred or thousand preprogrammed strings of randomly chosen cards out of 6 decks. When you press deal, it chooses one of them and depending if you hit or stand it chooses the next card in the string. So in theory a particular game could be accidentally preprogrammed disproportionately based on if the strings are more favorable to the house or player. I have no idea what I'm talking about here though. I don't even know if this is how it works.

I am still up significantly the past 2 years although this year has been more of a struggle. It's also hard to see where I'm winning and losing because the co-mingled sports betting screws up the wins and losses. I think I will start a different thread soon about a nearly 2 year blackjack story I have about one particular game to get peoples opinions.

Quote: ksdjdj

IMO, it is not significant at the $13 per round average you were betting (of course, getting the whole bonus up front is always preferable, if all the other t & c's are the same).

I have seen one or two other places do it like this. $25 per $1 is a strong offer. Also it doesn't matter the bet size so you can bet the small $13 and usually not sweat the variance. Many places are at 300x rollover on blackjack now.

Quote: Sandybestdog

I have played at Fox a couple of times. I did the $500 bonus as well. It's a good promo. I ran so bad. I could not win a hand but I was betting larger and I'm sure it was within the parameters of variance. I lost not only the deposit but also subsequent deposits just to get the $500 credit. Another time I ran a $100 bonus up to about $1200 (big bets, maybe 3 x $25 or something) The playthrough was outrageous though. Something like 400x I think. Well about 90% through I leveled off. Maybe 5 x $6 or something. I dropped probably $600 in 40 rounds. I think then I just went to maybe one hand of $25. It was so bad. I ended up only about $100. There was a streak where I calculated I lost 25 out of 27 hands. Certainly possible but suspect. I requested the hand history. It was emailed to me and surprise surprise couldn't access it, just got error messages. A few months later I played again and lost as well. I haven't played since. Mostly cause there are no more bonuses. I don't know the software. I haven't seen it anywhere else.

I play a lot online. Shit will drive you crazy. Do I think it's rigged? Probably not. But there are definitely places where I always seem to have better success and places where I always seem to lose. There are also the particular games that have uncanny repeatable characteristics. I'm sure it's just selective memory. What I do know is for the amount of the bonuses that I receive, I certainly don't feel that I am at expectation. Again could be selective memory. No doubt I have had some big wins as well.

I will say this. Read the rules. They do not say it's random. They say every hand is independent. That I believe. But it doesn't say every card has an equal chance of coming out. Everyone knows when you get 4 to a royal, you have a fair 1/47 chance of getting it. I'm not sure about online. My personal theory - they say its not an RNG but a pseudo RNG. That doesn't answer how a card is chosen. So my theory is that the game is programmed with not random cards out of 6 decks but rather several hundred or thousand preprogrammed strings of randomly chosen cards out of 6 decks. When you press deal, it chooses one of them and depending if you hit or stand it chooses the next card in the string. So in theory a particular game could be accidentally preprogrammed disproportionately based on if the strings are more favorable to the house or player. I have no idea what I'm talking about here though. I don't even know if this is how it works.

I am still up significantly the past 2 years although this year has been more of a struggle. It's also hard to see where I'm winning and losing because the co-mingled sports betting screws up the wins and losses. I think I will start a different thread soon about a nearly 2 year blackjack story I have about one particular game to get peoples opinions.

From what I understand about casino grade rng is that - there can be patterns that are noticeable it’s just something that happens, and it doesn’t matter if you can see the pattern as long as the cards are unpredictable.

I’ll tell you that PA shuffles are only one of the two things that I mentioned

I don’t know how many people need to come into here and complain about PA before you are all finally tipped off its true?

Quote: heatmap

From what I understand about casino grade rng is that - there can be patterns that are noticeable it’s just something that happens, and it doesn’t matter if you can see the pattern as long as the cards are unpredictable.

I’ll tell you that PA shuffles are only one of the two things that I mentioned

I don’t know how many people need to come into here and complain about PA before you are all finally tipped off its true?

Well from what I can tell PA has just copied everything from NJ. It's literally the same places with the same games just opening up in PA now. Some of the games are slightly different, like whether or not it has surrender. I doubt the software is any different.

Quote: Sandybestdog

Well from what I can tell PA has just copied everything from NJ. It's literally the same places with the same games just opening up in PA now. Some of the games are slightly different, like whether or not it has surrender. I doubt the software is any different.

The information I was talking about was general and not derived from any laws. It was information that I had read in passing at one point.

I actually think the PA laws pertaining to RNG are pretty straight forward, but I will claim that they are no where near thorough.

The only things i can specifically say that work for our benfit - and it one of the only rules that specifically states how a random number CANT be generated - which is form the internal hold percentage

RNG standards :

https://www.pacodeandbulletin.gov/Display/pacode?file=/secure/pacode/data/058/chapter810/s810.5.html&searchunitkeywords=RANDOM%2CNUMBER%2CGENERATOR&origQuery=RANDOM%20NUMBER%20GENERATOR&operator=OR&title=null

Slot machine design standards :

https://www.pacodeandbulletin.gov/Display/pacode?file=/secure/pacode/data/058/chapter461a/s461a.7.html&searchunitkeywords=RANDOM%2CNUMBER%2CGENERATOR&origQuery=RANDOM%20NUMBER%20GENERATOR&operator=OR&title=null

but to make it easy... this is the things that help US as players but these are the ONLY things that really dictate how a random number is generated

(ii) Not make a secondary decision which affects the result shown to the person playing the slot machine.

(e) A slot machine is prohibited from automatically altering any function of the slot machine based on internal computation of the hold percentage.