WizardofEngland
Joined: Nov 2, 2010
• Posts: 638
November 2nd, 2010 at 5:28:51 AM permalink
Ok, my attempt at a question for the Wizard,

Mr Burns has taken his mental pills and as a result offers you these crazy ideas for your Christmas Bonus.

1) \$10,000 cash, no questions asked.
2) \$5,000 cash and 10 spins on a single zero roulette wheel with 1 extra 18 and 1 extra 19 on the wheel, but you can only place outside bets.
3) \$5,000 cash and 20 hands of six-deck blackjack (standard rules) where blackjack pays 10-1 (including splits)
4) \$5,000 cash and 20 hands of three card poker, dealer exposes one card.

Which offer would you take?
http://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/10042-woes-black-sheep-game-ii/#post151727
MathExtremist
Joined: Aug 31, 2010
• Posts: 6526
November 2nd, 2010 at 8:41:19 AM permalink
Quote: WizardofEngland

Ok, my attempt at a question for the Wizard,

Mr Burns has taken his mental pills and as a result offers you these crazy ideas for your Christmas Bonus.

1) \$10,000 cash, no questions asked.
2) \$5,000 cash and 10 spins on a single zero roulette wheel with 1 extra 18 and 1 extra 19 on the wheel, but you can only place outside bets.
3) \$5,000 cash and 20 hands of six-deck blackjack (standard rules) where blackjack pays 10-1 (including splits)
4) \$5,000 cash and 20 hands of three card poker, dealer exposes one card.

Which offer would you take?

Depends on the table limits and my bankroll. If I can bring more money to the table and bet big, #3 is the best bet. Blackjack pays 10-1 makes the game over 40% +EV, and if you include splits then you'd also split any pair of 10s and have a decent shot at hitting at least one blackjack in your 20 hands. If I'm stuck with the initial \$5000, none of the other options have an EV of > 100% (and with no variance, to boot) so I pick #1.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
miplet
Joined: Dec 1, 2009
• Posts: 1930
November 2nd, 2010 at 8:58:10 AM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

Depends on the table limits and my bankroll. If I can bring more money to the table and bet big, #3 is the best bet. Blackjack pays 10-1 makes the game over 40% +EV, and if you include splits then you'd also split any pair of 10s and have a decent shot at hitting at least one blackjack in your 20 hands. If I'm stuck with the initial \$5000, none of the other options have an EV of > 100% (and with no variance, to boot) so I pick #1.

One card poker has a player advantage of 3.48% on the 5/4/1 paytable.
Option 2 has a player advange, but I've never seen a roulette wheel with 39 numbers.
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
WizardofEngland
Joined: Nov 2, 2010
• Posts: 638
November 2nd, 2010 at 10:29:43 AM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

Depends on the table limits and my bankroll. If I can bring more money to the table and bet big, #3 is the best bet. Blackjack pays 10-1 makes the game over 40% +EV, and if you include splits then you'd also split any pair of 10s and have a decent shot at hitting at least one blackjack in your 20 hands. If I'm stuck with the initial \$5000, none of the other options have an EV of > 100% (and with no variance, to boot) so I pick #1.

The limits would be \$10,00 max per bet, but you can't bring your own money.
http://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/10042-woes-black-sheep-game-ii/#post151727
WizardofEngland
Joined: Nov 2, 2010
• Posts: 638
November 2nd, 2010 at 10:30:20 AM permalink
Quote: miplet

One card poker has a player advantage of 3.48% on the 5/4/1 paytable.
Option 2 has a player advange, but I've never seen a roulette wheel with 39 numbers.

It is only a theoretical wheel...... ;-)
http://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/10042-woes-black-sheep-game-ii/#post151727
JerryLogan
Joined: Jun 28, 2010
• Posts: 1344
November 2nd, 2010 at 10:41:54 AM permalink
That's easy. The only true option is the \$10,000 cash. All that other stuff is nonsense laced with fluff.
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
• Posts: 20988
November 2nd, 2010 at 10:45:35 AM permalink
Quote: WizardofEngland

1) \$10,000 cash, no questions asked.
2) \$5,000 cash and 10 spins on a single zero roulette wheel with 1 extra 18 and 1 extra 19 on the wheel, but you can only place outside bets.
3) \$5,000 cash and 20 hands of six-deck blackjack (standard rules) where blackjack pays 10-1 (including splits)
4) \$5,000 cash and 20 hands of three card poker, dealer exposes one card.

Which offer would you take?

First, it should be noted that 18 and 19 are both red, making the probability of a winning red bet 20/39.

So the advantage on (2) would be 1/39 = 2.56%.

The probability of a winning blackjack is 4.53%. So 10-1 on a blackjack is worth an extra 8.5*0.0453 = 38.5%! I won't fuss with the rule about after splitting. Let's assume the normal house edge is 0.5%, so (3) is worth 38%.

(4) As I show in my page on flashing Three Card Poker dealers, the advantage seeing one card is 3.48%.

So I would go with option (3) for sure.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
WizardofEngland
Joined: Nov 2, 2010
• Posts: 638
November 2nd, 2010 at 10:51:59 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

First, it should be noted that 18 and 19 are both red, making the probability of a winning red bet 20/39.

So the advantage on (2) would be 1/39 = 2.56%.

The probability of a winning blackjack is 4.53%. So 10-1 on a blackjack is worth an extra 8.5*0.0453 = 38.5%! I won't fuss with the rule about after splitting. Let's assume the normal house edge is 0.5%, so (3) is worth 38%.

(4) As I show in my page on flashing Three Card Poker dealers, the advantage seeing one card is 3.48%.

So I would go with option (3) for sure.

what would you make the payout on blackjack be, so it falls somewhere around the 2.5-3.5% shown on the other bets?
how does element of risk effect these bets?
http://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/10042-woes-black-sheep-game-ii/#post151727
rdw4potus
Joined: Mar 11, 2010
• Posts: 6963
November 2nd, 2010 at 11:44:21 AM permalink
Quote: WizardofEngland

Quote: Wizard

First, it should be noted that 18 and 19 are both red, making the probability of a winning red bet 20/39.

So the advantage on (2) would be 1/39 = 2.56%.

The probability of a winning blackjack is 4.53%. So 10-1 on a blackjack is worth an extra 8.5*0.0453 = 38.5%! I won't fuss with the rule about after splitting. Let's assume the normal house edge is 0.5%, so (3) is worth 38%.

(4) As I show in my page on flashing Three Card Poker dealers, the advantage seeing one card is 3.48%.

So I would go with option (3) for sure.

what would you make the payout on blackjack be, so it falls somewhere around the 2.5-3.5% shown on the other bets?
how does element of risk effect these bets?

if X is the number of additional units that a BJ would need to pay,and you want the game to return 3.35% (.65% HA-4% PA adjustment= 3.35% PA), then X*.0453=4%, so X=3%/.0453, so X=.883 units. So 2.38:1 would result in a 3.35% player advantage. Maybe call it 2.5:1?
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
rdw4potus
Joined: Mar 11, 2010
• Posts: 6963
November 2nd, 2010 at 11:48:05 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

First, it should be noted that 18 and 19 are both red, making the probability of a winning red bet 20/39.

So the advantage on (2) would be 1/39 = 2.56%.

The probability of a winning blackjack is 4.53%. So 10-1 on a blackjack is worth an extra 8.5*0.0453 = 38.5%! I won't fuss with the rule about after splitting. Let's assume the normal house edge is 0.5%, so (3) is worth 38%.

(4) As I show in my page on flashing Three Card Poker dealers, the advantage seeing one card is 3.48%.

So I would go with option (3) for sure.

You would take option 3 over option 1? I think that if you sat down with \$5000 and played 20 hands of a game with a 3.48% PA, you'd have a \$9911 expected bankroll after your session.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett