ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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February 20th, 2019 at 3:58:42 AM permalink
Hi,

I am trying to work out a splitting strategy for a back-bet punter for Australian Pontoon.

I think I have worked out the reduction in house edge vs a Dealer 10 when the "front bet" is $25 , and the "back bet" is $900.

I got a 0.07913...% house edge improvement, when compared to the "combined initial bet" (front bet + back bet).
Is this figure correct?

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Also, I would like to know what the correct decision for the hand below is:

Pair of Aces vs Ace, is it Hit or Split?

Most sources online say to SPLIT Aces
MGP's BJ CA says to HIT the pair of Aces (see "MGP" values below).

Split Aces (value) : -0.144355735036912
Hit pair of Aces (value): -0.112490341456241(Total Dependent)
Hit pair of Aces (value): -0.111750443937522 (Comp. Dependent)

As there is a significant difference, I would like to know which is the correct strategy, thanks

Note: The house edge using MGPs BJ CA is about 0.43% (NOT including the "super bonus").

The game rules used to work out the house edge, are below:

6 Spanish Decks
H17
BB + 1 (BBO)
Double (hard 9-11)
DAS
Split once to make two hands
No Surrender, except double down rescue (including double down rescue after splits)
Type of Double down surrender: "early surrender".
"Blackjack"/Pontoon pays : 3/2
Player 21 Automatic winner (including player blackjack)
Other bonuses:
5 card 21 and a non- suited 6-7-8 or 7-7-7 pays 3:2
6 card 21 and a suited 6-7-8 or 7-7-7 pays 2:1 (for all suits except spades).
7(or more) card 21 and a suited 6-7-8 or 7-7-7 pays 3:1 (spades only).

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thanks
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Feb 20, 2019
charliepatrick
charliepatrick
Joined: Jun 17, 2011
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Thanks for this post from:
ksdjdj
February 20th, 2019 at 9:19:15 AM permalink
Only based on your figures it seems best to split if you don't have to on the back. If the EV for split Aces is -0.144 then one hand, the Ace on the left, has an EV= -0.072 and the Ace on the right has the other -0.072. Thus your big wager had an EV of -0.072 as you only put it on one of the Aces. Using the same logic you may also find there are other defensive splits (especially 6 7 8 and 9s) - compare this with the strategy for https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/tables/32501-side-bonus-blackjack where the aim is to win at all cost for the sidebet.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 78
  • Posts: 894
February 20th, 2019 at 4:30:09 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Hi,

I am trying to work out a splitting strategy for a back-bet punter for Australian Pontoon.

I think I have worked out the reduction in house edge vs a Dealer 10 when the "front bet" is $25 , and the "back bet" is $900.

I got a 0.07913...% house edge improvement, when compared to the "combined initial bet" (front bet + back bet).
Is this figure correct?s


I should have put this in the OP, but here are the "Split Pairs vs 10 values" I got so far (based on $25 front and $900 back, for a combined total bet initial bet of $925).
Below are the hands that the back-bet player should only play one hand on the split HE reduction.

Pair of 2's: 0.003616% (overall reduction in house edge, compared to the combined initial bet of $925?)
Pair of 3's: 0.010785%
Pair of 6's: 0.003785%
Pair of 8's: 0.038475%
Pair of 9's: 0.007007%
Pair of 7's: 0.015462%***

***; This is the average improvement, and it is always better to split 7's vs a dealer 10 when playing the "back-bet strategy" (even with a pair of 7 in spades).

-----------------
Also, the main reason I started this thread was to give myself the biggest chance of an edge "counting a CSM"(see link below^^^.

^^^: https://discountgambling.net/2012/07/27/counting-csm-blackjack-ev

I plan on using the count below (incl EoRs, to 2 decimal places):

2 = 0 (0.06% EoR)

3 = 1 (0.08%)
4 = 1 (0.10%)
5 = 2 (0.12%)
6 = 1 (0.07%)

7 = 0 (0.01%)
8 = 0 (-0.03%)
9 = 0 (-0.03%)

J, Q, K = -1 (-0.08%)
A = -2 (- 0.14%)

Running count trigger point: when the running count reaches 6***
Player Position needed : box 1
Back-bet player betting strategy: "wong-out" on running counts lower than 6***.
"Counting window": plan to use 16 or 20 cards
% of hands the player has an edge: ???% (I don't know, but it is about 8% for the bj game on the discount gambling website,)

***: even though I said the running count trigger is 6, because we are playing a "back-bet strategy", I think the game turns + EV when the running count is between 3 and 5, right?

Lastly, for the game listed in the op; does anyone know of any basic strategy deviations when the true count is 1 to 1.5 (since a true count of 1.5 is the "most" i expect this type of play to ever have).

thanks

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Update:

some hands there are 20 to 40 cards in the "muck" before the dealer puts them back into the CSM
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Feb 20, 2019
charliepatrick
charliepatrick
Joined: Jun 17, 2011
  • Threads: 32
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Thanks for this post from:
ksdjdj
February 20th, 2019 at 5:49:50 PM permalink
As you seem to be working out, my guess would be that normally it's right to split all pairs except 4s 5s and 10s. However I expect sometimes you stand on 9s. Also given the bonuses you probably don't split 7s always. Note you need to remember if they don't pay bonuses on split hands you're losing something in House Edge by always splitting.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 78
  • Posts: 894
February 20th, 2019 at 8:58:19 PM permalink
For the $25 front and $900 back bet, I have 0.10246% house edge reduction*** so far for: X's (k,q,j) and 9's
***: 0.07913% for X's and 0.02333% for 9's

For the back-bet, split and play one hand on the following:
pair of: 2's, 3's, 6's, 7's, 8's, and 9's (same back-bet strategy as X's)

Update (330 am, next day)

Looks like I finally found out why I was not getting the exact same basic strategy as WoO website . I think my copy of MGP's BJ CA has OBBO and BBO mixed up, because I get the same strategy as the WoO website for BBO, when I choose OBBO in the BJ CA.

I will have to recheck some of the back-bet "split values" (at least against dealer X and Ace).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Feb 21, 2019

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