ChumpChange
ChumpChange
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
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February 3rd, 2019 at 8:48:07 PM permalink
I've lost 40 hands fairly quickly. I'd call it a quantum leap.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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February 3rd, 2019 at 9:22:03 PM permalink
Quote: DoctorPhil

Sorry for not replying as quickly. First, I'm not a cussing any casino of cheating. Why would they? Second, this is a high limit room, hand shuffled, shoe with 6 decks. Someone did ask about surrender, I said in OP they have surrender. I did not track but since I started basic strategy, I do recall surrendering a few hands. I considered that a loss, I realize it's half a loss. I'm not sure that changes much. Again, I certainly can't tell you where the cut card was, but I gave a few constants.

If you don't want to provide the answer and more concentrate on the validity, fine I'll just figure it out elsewhere.

I do recall doubling and splitting. They didn't win.




I gave you the rough chance*** of this happening in one shoe earlier in this thread, it is between 1/552,414,131,902 and 1/679,726,902,915,061, depending on how many hands you played per shoe.

***: for a fairly dealt game.

I also gave you the WoO site that you can go to, so that you can work out the chance of having a bad session like yours (the chance of losing is about 49.09% for each hand you play).

Can you guess/estimate how many shoes you have played in your life so far?
We could find a more "accurate" estimate if we had that figure, but It would still be at most a 1 in a million chance over a "life-time" of playing bj (that figure is for a player who plays every day for 50+ years)

Ps I couldn't estimate the chance figure for it happening in two shoes, because my calculator came back with an error message when I tried to find out.
------------------

update (about 3am pacific time)

Just did 100,000,000 simulations and the "minimum return" was -36^^^ units "wagering" 38 units in total and "bet size" 1 unit

^^^The sim doesn't tell me how this "minimum return" occurred, but It gave me these details/figures below:

House edge (per hand): 0.35% (estimate)
Standard Deviation (per hand): 1.15 (estimate)
Average return: -0.12 units (u)
Minimum Return: -36 u
Maximum Return: +37 u
Standard Deviation: 6.71 (don't know how to use that figure, someone else may be able to explain it)

This website was used to simulate the above: http://www.beatingbonuses.com/simulator.htm

Note: my computer won't run the java script simulator, but it is supposed to be a lot faster (see below)

http://www.beatingbonuses.com/simulator_java.htm
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Feb 4, 2019
Nathan
Nathan
Joined: Sep 2, 2016
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February 4th, 2019 at 7:08:01 AM permalink
The fact that an esteemed long time Member also mentioned that the same exact thing happened to him at least once gives credible credence to what the OP claimed.
In both The Hunger Games and in gambling, may the odds be ever in your favor. :D "Man Babes" #AxelFabulous "Olive oil is processed but it only has one ingredient, olive oil."-Even Bob, March 27/28th. :D The 2 year war is over! Woo-hoo! :D I sometimes speak in metaphors. ;) Remember this. ;) Crack the code. :D 8.9.13.25.14.1.13.5.9.19.14.1.20.8.1.14! :D "For about the 4096th time, let me offer a radical idea to those of you who don't like Nathan -- block her and don't visit Nathan's Corner. What is so complicated about it?" Wizard, August 21st. :D
FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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February 4th, 2019 at 8:59:21 AM permalink
Quote: Nathan

The fact that an esteemed long time Member also mentioned that the same exact thing happened to him at least once gives credible credence to what the OP claimed.



I donít remember this. Can you explain?
Nathan
Nathan
Joined: Sep 2, 2016
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February 4th, 2019 at 9:07:20 AM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

I donít remember this. Can you explain?



Chump Change. "I've lost 40 hands fairly quickly. I'd call it a quantum leap." :)
In both The Hunger Games and in gambling, may the odds be ever in your favor. :D "Man Babes" #AxelFabulous "Olive oil is processed but it only has one ingredient, olive oil."-Even Bob, March 27/28th. :D The 2 year war is over! Woo-hoo! :D I sometimes speak in metaphors. ;) Remember this. ;) Crack the code. :D 8.9.13.25.14.1.13.5.9.19.14.1.20.8.1.14! :D "For about the 4096th time, let me offer a radical idea to those of you who don't like Nathan -- block her and don't visit Nathan's Corner. What is so complicated about it?" Wizard, August 21st. :D
CrystalMath
CrystalMath
Joined: May 10, 2011
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February 4th, 2019 at 9:20:20 AM permalink
Quote: Nathan

Chump Change. "I've lost 40 hands fairly quickly. I'd call it a quantum leap." :)



Fairly quickly is not the same thing as 40 in a row.
I heart Crystal Math.
Nathan
Nathan
Joined: Sep 2, 2016
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February 4th, 2019 at 9:46:05 AM permalink
Quote: CrystalMath

Fairly quickly is not the same thing as 40 in a row.



But it does kind of give credence that the OP was telling the truth. ;)
In both The Hunger Games and in gambling, may the odds be ever in your favor. :D "Man Babes" #AxelFabulous "Olive oil is processed but it only has one ingredient, olive oil."-Even Bob, March 27/28th. :D The 2 year war is over! Woo-hoo! :D I sometimes speak in metaphors. ;) Remember this. ;) Crack the code. :D 8.9.13.25.14.1.13.5.9.19.14.1.20.8.1.14! :D "For about the 4096th time, let me offer a radical idea to those of you who don't like Nathan -- block her and don't visit Nathan's Corner. What is so complicated about it?" Wizard, August 21st. :D
FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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Thanks for this post from:
CrystalMathtringlomanegamerfreakOnceDear
February 4th, 2019 at 9:57:00 AM permalink
Quote: Nathan

But it does kind of give credence that the OP was telling the truth. ;)



No it doesnít at all.
CrystalMath
CrystalMath
Joined: May 10, 2011
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February 4th, 2019 at 1:41:47 PM permalink
I just simulated 50 billion shoes with a 75% penetration.


It never happened
I heart Crystal Math.
jackmagic777
jackmagic777
Joined: Jan 11, 2019
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February 4th, 2019 at 2:32:54 PM permalink
This actually happened to me 3 times in 8 deck shoes, 90% penetration. Luckily I recovered all my losses when I then enrolled in a DI class and after graduation, I rolled 30 yo's in a row.,

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