darkoz
darkoz
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
  • Threads: 261
  • Posts: 8856
February 3rd, 2019 at 9:29:46 AM permalink
Quote: 7craps

what else did the OP say?
there is one wrong assumption or wrong fact.

confirmation bias

Quote: DoctorPhil

I like it when the wizard says things like you might win in the short term but of course we all lose in the long-term, I'm a perfect example of the perfect statistic. I consistently lose all the time.

sure. losses ALL the time. perfect example. sure

come on Doc
how many hands played in each shoe U estimate?
any double down and split hands you remember?
too much to drink while playing?

How many times per shoe did you surrender?
surrender can be a good play.

some have it so easy
lose all the time
and still plays??



Good points

Confirmation bias against himself may be a possibility as well

But lets get all the questions answered as to where this took place before we rule out casino cheating
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
michael99000
michael99000
Joined: Jul 10, 2010
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 2112
February 3rd, 2019 at 9:37:31 AM permalink
Quote: darkoz

Quote: 7craps

what else did the OP say?
there is one wrong assumption or wrong fact.

confirmation bias

Quote: DoctorPhil

I like it when the wizard says things like you might win in the short term but of course we all lose in the long-term, I'm a perfect example of the perfect statistic. I consistently lose all the time.

sure. losses ALL the time. perfect example. sure

come on Doc
how many hands played in each shoe U estimate?
any double down and split hands you remember?
too much to drink while playing?

How many times per shoe did you surrender?
surrender can be a good play.

some have it so easy
lose all the time
and still plays??



Good points

Confirmation bias against himself may be a possibility as well

But lets get all the questions answered as to where this took place before we rule out casino cheating



In order for the shoe to be rigged they’d have to know exactly where’s he’s going to cut the cards, and how he’s gonna play every hand.
darkoz
darkoz
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
  • Threads: 261
  • Posts: 8856
February 3rd, 2019 at 9:38:46 AM permalink
Some additional questions:
Was the table reserved and were table limits discussed?

Was there any prohibition against others playing the table because you wanted it all to yourself?

These questions go to likelihood of the casino having time to set the deck in advance. Slight of hand with the cut card and a rigged deck can achieve this result
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
darkoz
darkoz
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
  • Threads: 261
  • Posts: 8856
February 3rd, 2019 at 9:41:53 AM permalink
Quote: michael99000

Quote: darkoz

Quote: 7craps

what else did the OP say?
there is one wrong assumption or wrong fact.

confirmation bias

Quote: DoctorPhil

I like it when the wizard says things like you might win in the short term but of course we all lose in the long-term, I'm a perfect example of the perfect statistic. I consistently lose all the time.

sure. losses ALL the time. perfect example. sure

come on Doc
how many hands played in each shoe U estimate?
any double down and split hands you remember?
too much to drink while playing?

How many times per shoe did you surrender?
surrender can be a good play.

some have it so easy
lose all the time
and still plays??



Good points

Confirmation bias against himself may be a possibility as well

But lets get all the questions answered as to where this took place before we rule out casino cheating



In order for the shoe to be rigged they’d have to know exactly where’s he’s going to cut the cards, and how he’s gonna play every hand.



If you are rigging the deck you can rig the cut card motion. You will be surprised what sleight of hand can do

And he already said he plays basic strategy which is somewhat predictable.

What were the rules where he might make unpredictable decisions is another question
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
michael99000
michael99000
Joined: Jul 10, 2010
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 2112
February 3rd, 2019 at 10:01:13 AM permalink
Quote: darkoz

Quote: michael99000

Quote: darkoz

Quote: 7craps

what else did the OP say?
there is one wrong assumption or wrong fact.

confirmation bias

Quote: DoctorPhil

I like it when the wizard says things like you might win in the short term but of course we all lose in the long-term, I'm a perfect example of the perfect statistic. I consistently lose all the time.

sure. losses ALL the time. perfect example. sure

come on Doc
how many hands played in each shoe U estimate?
any double down and split hands you remember?
too much to drink while playing?

How many times per shoe did you surrender?
surrender can be a good play.

some have it so easy
lose all the time
and still plays??



Good points

Confirmation bias against himself may be a possibility as well

But lets get all the questions answered as to where this took place before we rule out casino cheating



In order for the shoe to be rigged they’d have to know exactly where’s he’s going to cut the cards, and how he’s gonna play every hand.



If you are rigging the deck you can rig the cut card motion. You will be surprised what sleight of hand can do

And he already said he plays basic strategy which is somewhat predictable.

What were the rules where he might make unpredictable decisions is another question



Ok just so I have it straight:

- The shoe is rigged so that literally every hand is a loser. 40 straight hands. They don’t throw in a winner here n there to make it look good. The casino has no problems creating a 500 million to 1 scenario

- the cut of the cards is rigged

- the player must play every hand to an exact set of basic strategy rules. Hitting/doubling soft hands. Splits. Hitting 12 vs 2, etc

-there cannot be any point in the shoe where a dealer goes on break and the relief dealer burns a card

- the player can never switch to 2 hands at any point in the shoe

Bottom line. This didn’t happen
rawtuff
rawtuff
Joined: Mar 15, 2013
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 209
February 3rd, 2019 at 10:08:39 AM permalink
Quote: michael99000



Ok just so I have it straight:

The casino has no problems creating a 500 million to 1 scenario



billion. With b.
darkoz
darkoz
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
  • Threads: 261
  • Posts: 8856
February 3rd, 2019 at 10:31:31 AM permalink
Quote: michael99000

Quote: darkoz

Quote: michael99000

Quote: darkoz

Quote: 7craps

what else did the OP say?
there is one wrong assumption or wrong fact.

confirmation bias

Quote: DoctorPhil

I like it when the wizard says things like you might win in the short term but of course we all lose in the long-term, I'm a perfect example of the perfect statistic. I consistently lose all the time.

sure. losses ALL the time. perfect example. sure

come on Doc
how many hands played in each shoe U estimate?
any double down and split hands you remember?
too much to drink while playing?

How many times per shoe did you surrender?
surrender can be a good play.

some have it so easy
lose all the time
and still plays??



Good points

Confirmation bias against himself may be a possibility as well

But lets get all the questions answered as to where this took place before we rule out casino cheating



In order for the shoe to be rigged they’d have to know exactly where’s he’s going to cut the cards, and how he’s gonna play every hand.



If you are rigging the deck you can rig the cut card motion. You will be surprised what sleight of hand can do

And he already said he plays basic strategy which is somewhat predictable.

What were the rules where he might make unpredictable decisions is another question



Ok just so I have it straight:

- The shoe is rigged so that literally every hand is a loser. 40 straight hands. They don’t throw in a winner here n there to make it look good. The casino has no problems creating a 500 million to 1 scenario

- the cut of the cards is rigged

- the player must play every hand to an exact set of basic strategy rules. Hitting/doubling soft hands. Splits. Hitting 12 vs 2, etc

-there cannot be any point in the shoe where a dealer goes on break and the relief dealer burns a card

- the player can never switch to 2 hands at any point in the shoe

Bottom line. This didn’t happen



What is the possibility that the casino DID rig the deck but NOT for the OP to lose 40 straight

What if BECAUSE it was rigged the OP wound up losing 40 straight due to the unpredictable outcomes caused by a rigged deck

I.e. the casino just rigged it for him to lose without specifically going for 40 straight losses. Just a preponderance of losses. And that led to such a staggering loss

How are the mathematical odds of losing 40 straight affected when the deck is NOT fair?
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 80
  • Posts: 931
February 3rd, 2019 at 12:09:08 PM permalink
Tried to find out the probability that a casino did cheat or rig the deck, here is what I found on the sites I looked at.
The first link is to some sort of "betting system" site, so wouldn't put much faith in the "facts" for that one, but the second link seems to be better and the third and fourth link are just for working out EOR.

Below is a link of the first site that came up when I looked up, "probability of a casino cheating"

http://www.progamblingsystems.com/how-casinos-cheat-us/

Below is a link of the first site that came up when I googled, "do casinos cheat at blackjack"

https://www.blackjackchamp.com/casino-news/24780-4-dirty-blackjack-tricks-casinos-used-cheat/

Also, removing sixteen 10 value cards and four Aces will increase the house edge by about 2.11%***.

***: 6-Deck, S17, OBO, DA 2 Cards, DAS, Late Surrender, ALWAYS playing basic strategy (see link below to work out/check yourself)

http://www.bjstrat.net/cgi-bin/cdca.cgi

Originally found the above link on the site below, when I searched "wizard of odds effect of card removal"

https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/appendix/7/

Then clicked on "The source for this table is the amazing Composition Dependent Combinatorial Analyzer at bjstrat.net."

Even with 20 really good player cards removed from the start of a 6-deck shoe, the OP's situation would still be very hard to believe.


Hope this helps the OP in working out that the casino most likely cheated by "sleight of hand^^^" (if they did cheat).

^^^: From the "blackjackchamp" website, this is when: "...The dealer has extremely quick hands and notices that the player has had a few too many frosty umbrella drinks or is simply not paying attention, so rather than dealing the card from the top of the deck, the dealer intentionally hands out a bust card."


Question to Op: do you remember how many times you busted? (if it was nearly all or all the hands that you chose to hit on, then that could be an INDICATOR of "sleight of hand" type "cheating by the casino")
-----------------

Update:

If the shoe had the 20 cards mentioned above removed from the shoe, it would still be a 1/ 246,235,034,862 (or 0.50145^38)^*^ chance of losing 38 hands out of 38.


^*^ : the basic strategy player "losing a hand" chance goes from about 49.09% to about 50.145% (so 0.50145^38) when these cards are removed.

Also after looking into it further, the first website I mention may be a "betting system" website, but it does illustrate some "pretty good" ways a casino can cheat, if they wanted to (it is about half-way down the page, and starts with "blackjack" as the title).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Feb 3, 2019
gordonm888
Administrator
gordonm888
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
  • Threads: 50
  • Posts: 3283
February 3rd, 2019 at 12:43:27 PM permalink
Quote: michael99000


In order for the shoe to be rigged they’d have to know exactly where’s he’s going to cut the cards, and how he’s gonna play every hand.



No, not true. In some shufflers the entire shoe is not preshuffled. Instead, an RNG selects the cards to be dealt as they are dealt and the cards are removed from their location and dealt.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
DoctorPhil
DoctorPhil
Joined: Feb 2, 2019
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 4
February 3rd, 2019 at 12:47:06 PM permalink
Sorry for not replying as quickly. First, I'm not a cussing any casino of cheating. Why would they? Second, this is a high limit room, hand shuffled, shoe with 6 decks. Someone did ask about surrender, I said in OP they have surrender. I did not track but since I started basic strategy, I do recall surrendering a few hands. I considered that a loss, I realize it's half a loss. I'm not sure that changes much. Again, I certainly can't tell you where the cut card was, but I gave a few constants.

If you don't want to provide the answer and more concentrate on the validity, fine I'll just figure it out elsewhere.

I do recall doubling and splitting. They didn't win.

  • Jump to: