Video Poker Variance
December 19th, 2018 at 3:48:31 PM
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I was hoping that the math Wizards here would be willing to weigh in on a couple of questions I have. I have been playing full pay Aces and Faces (99.26% return) in sessions of 2000 hands, running a total of $50K through the machine ($5 unit/$25 max coin in per hand).
I have been reading up on return, variance, and standard deviation for video poker. I found some earlier posts on this forum talking about a skewed vs normal distribution for video poker very interesting. I was trying to determine what my expected range of win/loss would be over 2 or 4 standard deviations (covering 95% and 99.9% of the possibilities, respectively) for 2000 hands. As I got to thinking about this even more I think that keeping in the possibility of hitting a royal flush in 2000 hands (a smallish sample size) really skew things from the actual reality - that reality being that you aren't likely to hit a royal flush in most 2000 hand sessions, and the royal flush accounts for a whopping 1.98% of the return!
So my questions are:
1) For the scenario of 2000 hands, $50K through the machine and an infinite bankroll what would be the expected win/loss range at 2.5 and 4 standard deviations for full pay Aces and Faces (variance on this game is 20.95) assuming the skewed distribution?
2) If you remove the possibility of getting a royal flush during a 2000 hand session how does this changes the numbers - return, variance, SD and does it unskew the distribution? What would be the win/loss range under this scenario?
Thanks so much!
I have been reading up on return, variance, and standard deviation for video poker. I found some earlier posts on this forum talking about a skewed vs normal distribution for video poker very interesting. I was trying to determine what my expected range of win/loss would be over 2 or 4 standard deviations (covering 95% and 99.9% of the possibilities, respectively) for 2000 hands. As I got to thinking about this even more I think that keeping in the possibility of hitting a royal flush in 2000 hands (a smallish sample size) really skew things from the actual reality - that reality being that you aren't likely to hit a royal flush in most 2000 hand sessions, and the royal flush accounts for a whopping 1.98% of the return!
So my questions are:
1) For the scenario of 2000 hands, $50K through the machine and an infinite bankroll what would be the expected win/loss range at 2.5 and 4 standard deviations for full pay Aces and Faces (variance on this game is 20.95) assuming the skewed distribution?
2) If you remove the possibility of getting a royal flush during a 2000 hand session how does this changes the numbers - return, variance, SD and does it unskew the distribution? What would be the win/loss range under this scenario?
Thanks so much!
